BUILT 12:49 · 25 Jul · GOING AT BUILD: Good to Firm
THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYSboth orders below are marked against the actual results every night — how often each one’s top pick won, and how often the winner came from its projected top 3full record →
DATA ORDERtop pick won 29.3%winner in its top 3 60.6%297 settled raceslatest day: won 9/32 · top-3 19/32
FORENSIC READtop pick won 28.6%winner in its top 3 58.9%224 settled races(the Data Order on those same races: 28.1% · 58%)
THE RECORD IN RACES LIKE THISthe same nightly-settled record, kept only to past races sharing this race’s profile
Data Order
Forensic Read
races like this one
settled
won
top-3
won
top-3
Class 6
58
25.9%
51.7%
19%
46.6%
handicaps
159
25.2%
59.1%
25.8%
57.2%
small fields (<=7)
136
33.8%
66.2%
35.3%
70.6%
The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW
No confirmed early pace on the book, so this one may turn tactical. Winners here typically raced recently (87% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (73% from the first three favourites). On the measured reads, SIXTY PLUS (IRE) leads on 80, 32pts clear of PANTHERE NOIR — backed since the morning. Little to argue against on the measured reads — the only question is the price. The shape danger is MICK THE HAT (IRE) — a genuine turn of foot — 2nd-best late speed here — profits if the early types overdo it. The market agrees — it makes SIXTY PLUS (IRE) the 66% favourite.
MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE
The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3
1ST · DATA ORDERDRAW 1
SIXTY PLUS (IRE)
OR 64 · Robert Havlin / James Owen
MARKET backed 1.64 → 1.5 · the market rates it a 66% chance
80.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD
Yard suits today’s conditions · 3+ / 0−Proven at this level — a Class 6 winner, racing in Class 6 todayThe top rating in this field (80.0)Stable in form this week — 7 wins from 16 runsMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare result
2ND · DATA ORDERDRAW 4
PANTHERE NOIR
OR 47 · Kieran O'Neill / Luke Dace
MARKET 6.2 · the market rates it a 16% chance
48FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans for · 5+ / 2−Rated #2 in this field (48)
3RD · DATA ORDERDRAW 2
ALEX THE GREAT (IRE)
OR 45 · Kieren Fox / Tony Carroll
MARKET drifting 16 → 24 · the market rates it a 4% chance
47.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans for · 3+ / 1−14lb below his last winning mark (45 today vs 59)Proven at this level — a Class 6 winner, racing in Class 6 todayRated #3 in this field (47.0)Race-fit — ran 12 days ago
The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY
1SIXTY PLUS (IRE)net +10figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, backed since morning, top-2 late speed today, yard hot, FormLab watch flag
2PANTHERE NOIRnet +7figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, top-2 speed vs its fields, sharp from the stalls, yard positive in today’s setup
3MICK THE HAT (IRE)net +5race-fit (ran <=45d), market top-3, top-2 late speed today, yard positive in today’s setup, yard hot
EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD
THE CASE AGAINST THE TOP PICK graded 36% · n=119
Little to argue against on the measured reads — the only question is the price. PANTHERE NOIR is the one to beat it — an edge SIXTY PLUS (IRE) lacks: sharp from the stalls.
Balance, not doubt for its own sake — every pick has a case against; a reader should see ours.
Race ShapePACE × FINISH
even/unclear early shape (no confirmed early types). Descriptive context — the shape never selects.
What this course & distance favours
Flat, very short straight (~200yd / ~1f) — a sprint home finish.
WHAT WINS THIS RACE graded 81% · n=89
15 similar races at LINGFIELD PARK, 13.0-15.0f, all-aged handicaps, Class 5-7, all months, 2023-2026 (class band widened for sample)
Winners here typically raced recently (87% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (73% from the first three favourites). 27% won last time out, 40% were placed 2nd-3rd.
Age
53% 4yo
20% 6yo+
20% 5yo
Last ran
53% within 14d
33% 15-45d
7% first run
Market
47% favourite
27% 4th+ in the market
13% 3rd favourite
LTO form
40% placed last time
27% won last time
27% unplaced last time
The shape of past winners here · context only, never picks the horse.
Where the pace is drawn · 4 runners · stalls 1–4
1234
Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner.
If the ground changes
Should it turn softer: SIXTY PLUS (IRE) is unraced on softer ground · PANTHERE NOIR is 0/6 on softer ground · ALEX THE GREAT (IRE) is 0/1 on softer ground. Records only — going aptitude is context, never a downgrade (the market prices it).
RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup
SIXTY PLUS (IRE)MID49.0%105.0the strongest late speed in this field — profits if the early types overdo it
ALEX THE GREAT (IRE)HELD-UP49.0%102.1the 3rd-strongest late speed in this field — profits if the early types overdo it
MICK THE HAT (IRE)MID49.5%103.5a genuine turn of foot — 2nd-best late speed here — profits if the early types overdo it
PANTHERE NOIRMID49.1%101.2solid late gains (4th of 4 on late speed here) — profits if the early types overdo it
The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER
#1SIXTY PLUS (IRE)MIDDOOR 2 · UNDER-RAISED WINNER
DRAW 1 · OR 64 · Robert Havlin / James Owen
MARKET backed 1.64 → 1.5 · the market rates it a 66% chance
Yard suits today’s conditions · 3+ / 0−
80.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
Top on the figures, 32pts clear of the next, backed since the morning; the strongest late speed in this field — profits if the early types overdo it.
FormLab Figure
80.0 · ranked #1 here · career best 80
Official mark (OR)
64 · last won off 64
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 1 tries
Days since last run
1
Sectional clock
Last time: beat the class par by 2.0s · best on the clock in its race Usually races midfield
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 104.96% (strong late)
Course scale · class context
drops 11 places on the course scale (THIRSK 12th → LINGFIELD PARK 23rd) — much easier company than the bare class suggests
Headgear
First-time cheekpieces · yard 16% with first-time gear (A/E 1.22)
Recent form · last 4 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 5 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
James Owen · 1553 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.5 on the exchange
Signature angle: at 4-8 odds, without a recent yard winner, on Good to Firm ground
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3)46/36612.6%0.9214/6123.0%1.3
Over 11f+ trips ✦70/39017.9%1.0733/15721.0%1.17
On turf ✦68/48813.9%1.0650/27318.3%1.15
Too few runners to read reliably
Back at their last winning mark (small sample)2/1414.3%1.03/1717.6%0.97
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 80 at/around today's trip, clears the ~49.3 demand
The rider
Robert Havlin · last 14 days: 5/16· at Lingfield Park: A/E 1.22 (n213)· with this yard: A/E 0.86 (n13)
Sectional profile · last 4 timed runs · ranks are against today's fieldgraded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields3rd of 4
-0.38 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 37.0 raw
Break · 0-20mph3rd of 4
+0.29s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed1st of 4
105.0%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length3rd of 4
7.06 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
Timed runs 2026-06-19 to 2026-07-24. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Data gaps · never met today's rivals
Proven at this level — a Class 6 winner, racing in Class 6 todayThe top rating in this field (80.0)Improving fast — last run rated 80, 10pts above his recent average of 70.0Only 1 run at this distanceStable in form this week — 7 wins from 16 runsMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultRace-fit — ran 1 days ago
LTO comment
“held up, headway over 3f out, ridden 2f out, led over 1f out, drew clear final 1f, readily”
#2PANTHERE NOIRMID
DRAW 4 · OR 47 · Kieran O'Neill / Luke Dace
MARKET 6.2 · the market rates it a 16% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 5+ / 2−
48FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
2nd on the figures, 32pts off the top, sharp from the stalls; solid late gains (4th of 4 on late speed here) — profits if the early types overdo it.
FormLab Figure
48 · ranked #2 here · career best 63
Official mark (OR)
47 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
untried at this distance
Days since last run
24
Sectional clock
Last time: 4.2s slower than par — the result flattered it · among the slowest in its race Usually races midfield · clock read is off a superseded run
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 101.22% (holds late)
Course scale · class context
drops 17 places on the course scale (EPSOM DOWNS 6th → LINGFIELD PARK 23rd) — much easier company than the bare class suggests
Headgear
Cheekpieces
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 14 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Luke Dace · 178 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 11.9 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3)4/449.1%1.111/520.0%3.48
In fields of <=73/329.4%0.772/1315.4%1.79
Coming back after 15 to 45 days6/5610.7%1.443/319.7%1.75
Over 11f+ trips3/2114.3%1.42/229.1%1.54
On turf5/578.8%1.121/185.6%1.32
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In Class 6-7 company3/3010.0%1.091/205.0%0.69
At Lingfield Park2/385.3%0.561/234.3%0.72
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 63 at/around today's trip, clears the ~49.3 demand
The rider
Kieran O'Neill · last 14 days: 1/19· at Lingfield Park: A/E 0.77 (n264)· with this yard: A/E 0 (n1)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's fieldgraded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields2nd of 4
-0.15 mph
About the level of its fields · 38.3 raw
Break · 0-20mph1st of 4
+0.00s
Quicker away than the field · fast away 3 of 6
Finish · closing speed4th of 4
101.2%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length1st of 4
7.24 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
19 Mar 26Newcastle7f14yStd66th5549.5Fast early40.2 -0.0393.5+0.08
Timed runs 2026-03-19 to 2026-07-01. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has metgraded 56% · n=765
MICK THE HAT (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 3.0L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
16 Jun 26 · 1m4f51y · Std — finished 9th vs 8th, 3L behind · OR 49 v 54 · race median 52
THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — REVERSES strongly vs 1 rival(s) met (-3.0L adj, 1 meeting(s))
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Rated #2 in this field (48)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price
LTO comment
“led, headed over 2f out, one paced”
#3ALEX THE GREAT (IRE)HELD-UP
DRAW 2 · OR 45 · Kieren Fox / Tony Carroll
MARKET drifting 16 → 24 · the market rates it a 4% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 3+ / 1−
47.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
3rd on the figures, 33pts off the top, among the two fastest on speed against its past fields; its figure was earned on a different surface.
FormLab Figure
47.0 · ranked #3 here · career best 68
Official mark (OR)
45 · last won off 59
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 11 tries
Days since last run
12
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class · faster than its field on the clock Usually races midfield
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 102.08% (holds late)
Headgear
Tongue strap · yard 9% with first-time gear (A/E 0.96)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 16 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Tony Carroll · 2405 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.4 on the exchange
Signature angle: at Bath, at this time of year (Q2), on turf, off a TFR-FALLING figure trend, with the mark MARK-FLAT, without a recent yard winner, with a CLAIM-7 claimer up
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Below their last winning mark11/1656.7%0.6720/10219.6%1.57
On turf ✦97/70713.7%1.248/24819.4%1.39
Over 11f+ trips ✦33/25512.9%1.1613/8914.6%1.31
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At this time of year (Q3) ✦51/49310.3%0.957/7010.0%0.84
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 68 at/around today's trip, clears the ~49.3 demand
The rider
Kieren Fox · last 14 days: 0/10· at Lingfield Park: A/E 0.59 (n24)· with this yard: A/E 0 (n14)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's fieldgraded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields1st of 4
+0.08 mph
About the level of its fields · 37.2 raw
Break · 0-20mph4th of 4
+0.49s
Slow away in 5 of 6 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed3rd of 4
102.1%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length4th of 4
6.88 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
Timed runs 2025-12-15 to 2026-07-13. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has metgraded 56% · n=765
Read through a common rival
vs MICK THE HAT (IRE) (read through THE CRAFTYMASTER, V POWER, HAVACHOC) ≈ +6.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Figure OFF-CONTEXT (aw→turf) — earned under different conditions14lb below his last winning mark (45 today vs 59)Proven at this level — a Class 6 winner, racing in Class 6 todayRated #3 in this field (47.0)Lost roughly 1.9 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionRace-fit — ran 12 days agoHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Held-Up — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“tracked pace, pushed along end of back straight, faded final 1f”
#4MICK THE HAT (IRE)MID
DRAW 3 · OR 52 · Jack Callan / Ralph Beckett
MARKET drifting 4.3 → 6.8 · the market rates it a 14% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 2−
32.7FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
4th on the figures, 47.3pts off the top, one of the two strongest finishers here; a genuine turn of foot — 2nd-best late speed here — profits if the early types overdo it.
FormLab Figure
32.7 · ranked #4 here · career best 59
Official mark (OR)
52 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 1 tries
Days since last run
18
Sectional clock
Last time: 2.7s slower than par — the result flattered it · among the slowest in its race Usually races midfield
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 103.47% (strong late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 9 places on the course scale (WOLVERHAMPTON 32nd → LINGFIELD PARK 23rd) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Headgear
First-time blinkers · yard 7% with first-time gear (A/E 0.48)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 6 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Ralph Beckett · 1396 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 3.5 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3)90/46719.3%0.9819/7425.7%1.2
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Over 11f+ trips51/24221.1%1.067/808.8%0.46
At Lingfield Park10/3727.0%1.013/2313.0%0.6
Too few runners to read reliably
In Class 6-7 company (small sample)2/540.0%1.562/825.0%1.17
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 62 at/around today's trip, clears the ~49.3 demand
The rider
Jack Callan · last 14 days: 5/27· at Lingfield Park: A/E 1.54 (n71)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's fieldgraded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields4th of 4
-0.48 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 37.8 raw
Break · 0-20mph2nd of 4
+0.23s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed2nd of 4
103.5%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length2nd of 4
7.16 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
Timed runs 2026-03-17 to 2026-07-07. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest.· finishing speed for 2 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none.· 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has metgraded 56% · n=765