FORMLAB Race Report — Lingfield Park 18:00

FORMLAB RACING

THE SCIENCE OF FORM  ·  RACE INTELLIGENCE REPORT

Lingfield Park · 18:00

Class 6 · 1m2f · Good to Firm · FIELD MEDIAN OR 49.5

GENERATED 2026-07-25 · 5 RUNNERS · 6 PROFILED IN DEPTH

BUILT 12:49 · 25 Jul · GOING AT BUILD: Good to Firm

THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYSboth orders below are marked against the actual results every night — how often each one’s top pick won, and how often the winner came from its projected top 3full record →

DATA ORDERtop pick won 29.3%winner in its top 3 60.6%297 settled raceslatest day: won 9/32 · top-3 19/32

FORENSIC READtop pick won 28.6%winner in its top 3 58.9%224 settled races(the Data Order on those same races: 28.1% · 58%)

THE RECORD IN RACES LIKE THISthe same nightly-settled record, kept only to past races sharing this race’s profile

		Data Order		Forensic Read
races like this one	settled	won	top-3	won	top-3
Class 6	58	25.9%	51.7%	19%	46.6%
middle (9-12f)	41	41.5%	70.7%	39%	70.7%
handicaps	159	25.2%	59.1%	25.8%	57.2%
small fields (<=7)	136	33.8%	66.2%	35.3%	70.6%

The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW

HOMELAND is the only confirmed early type — if it breaks level it should get the front to itself. Winners here typically raced recently (75% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (69% from the first three favourites); the typical winner also sits around 4th at halfway before quickening late, having spent about 47% of its energy before the final two furlongs. On the measured reads, HOMELAND leads on 64, 4pts clear of CELTIC SPIRIT — proven on the ground. Little to argue against on the measured reads — the only question is the price. The shape danger is HAVEAGOBEAU — the strongest late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it. The market agrees — it makes HOMELAND the 35% favourite.

MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE

The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3

1ST · DATA ORDER DRAW 1

HOMELAND

OR 57 · Jack Callan / Thomas Faulkner

MARKET drifting 2.12 → 2.8 · the market rates it a 35% chance

64.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD

Yard mixed · 3+ / 3−Proven at this level — a Class 6 winner, racing in Class 6 todayThe top rating in this field (64.0)Proven over the trip (9 tries, beats market expectation at 1.6)Jockey goes well at this track (1.54x market expectation)

2ND · DATA ORDER DRAW 5

CELTIC SPIRIT

OR 53 · Robert Havlin / Karen Jewell

MARKET backed 5.5 → 4.4 · the market rates it a 22% chance

60.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD

Yard mixed — leans against · 2+ / 4−Rated #2 in this field (60.0)

3RD · DATA ORDER DRAW 2

HAVEAGOBEAU

OR 52 · Olivia Haines / Jim Boyle

MARKET drifting 4.1 → 5.4 · the market rates it a 18% chance

59.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD

Yard mixed · 4+ / 4−Proven at this level — a Class 6 winner, racing in Class 6 todayDrops in class todayRated #3 in this field (59.0)Proven over the trip (10 tries, beats market expectation at 1.97)

The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY

1HOMELANDnet +11figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, top-2 speed vs its fields, sharp from the stalls, runs the dominant winning style here, proven at trip

2HAVEAGOBEAUnet +8drops in class, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, top-2 late speed today, top-2 speed vs its fields, proven at trip, fits the winner profile on market position − yard cold, 5lb+ above last winning mark

3DOGGEDnet +7race-fit (ran <=45d), runs the dominant winning style here, proven at trip, yard positive in today’s setup, FormLab watch flag, fits the winner profile on market position, fits the winner profile on recency

EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD

THE CASE AGAINST THE TOP PICK graded 36% · n=119

Little to argue against on the measured reads — the only question is the price. HAVEAGOBEAU is the one to beat it — an edge HOMELAND lacks: dropping in class.

Balance, not doubt for its own sake — every pick has a case against; a reader should see ours.

Worth A Second Look graded 30% · n=195

These horses rank lower on raw ability figures — but today's race fits a pattern their stable has repeatedly won in. In plain terms, why each deserves another look before you dismiss it.

DOGGED FIGURE #5

Tony Carroll's runners in Class 6-7 company win 13.8% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons. Tony Carroll's runners kept to the same class win 13.6% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons.

Race ShapePACE × FINISH

one confirmed early type — lone-lead possible. Descriptive context — the shape never selects.

What this course & distance favours

Flat, very short straight (~200yd / ~1f) — a sprint home finish. Winners’ energy signature: 47.21% spent early (band 46.46–48.29%, 148 measured winners, and the typical winner sits ~4 at halfway, 0.39s off the lead). graded 42% · n=389

WHAT WINS THIS RACE graded 81% · n=89

16 similar races at LINGFIELD PARK, 9.5-10.5f, all-aged handicaps, Class 6, Jun-Aug, 2023-2026

Winners here typically raced recently (75% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (69% from the first three favourites). 0% won last time out, 25% were placed 2nd-3rd.

Age

44% 4yo

38% 6yo+

12% 5yo

Last ran

56% 15-45d

19% within 14d

12% 46-90d

Market

31% 4th+ in the market

31% 3rd favourite

25% 2nd favourite

LTO form

69% unplaced last time

25% placed last time

6% first run

The shape of past winners here · context only, never picks the horse.

Where the pace is drawn · 5 runners · stalls 1–6

123456

Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner.

If the ground changes

Should it turn softer: HOMELAND is 2/4 on softer ground · CELTIC SPIRIT is 0/2 on softer ground · HAVEAGOBEAU is 0/3 on softer ground. Records only — going aptitude is context, never a downgrade (the market prices it).

RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup

HOMELAND PROMINENT 50.2% 98.8 the only measured early speed in the race, and spends more than winners here do — but holds one pace late · sharp from the stalls

CELTIC SPIRIT HELD-UP 49.5% 101.4 the 3rd-strongest late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it

HAVEAGOBEAU MID 48.4% 107.7 the strongest late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it

DOGGED MID 51.3% 98.8 one-paced late — 4th of 6 on late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front

LEIA ANTILLES (IRE) MID 49.9% 98.2 held up without the late gear (6th of 6 on late speed), yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front

MISTER PRETENTIOUS MID 49.6% 101.5 the 2nd-strongest late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it

The early fight · measured

Who actually gets the front: each confirmed early type’s speed over the opening 2f of its own recent races, compared with the horses it faced that day — plus how sharply it leaves the stalls.

HOMELANDPROMINENTtypically ~1.4 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · breaks with the very quickest

HOMELAND is the only confirmed early type — if it breaks level it should get the front to itself · context only — the shape never selects.

The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER

#1 HOMELAND PROMINENT DOOR 2 · UNDER-RAISED WINNER

DRAW 1 · OR 57 · Jack Callan / Thomas Faulkner

MARKET drifting 2.12 → 2.8 · the market rates it a 35% chance

Yard mixed · 3+ / 3−

64.0 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

Top on the figures, 4pts clear of the next, proven on the ground; the only measured early speed in the race, and spends more than winners here do — but holds one pace late, sharp from the stalls.

FormLab Figure

64.0 · ranked #1 here · career best 68

Official mark (OR)

57 · last won off 54

Record at today's distance

2 wins from 9 tries · beats market expectation (1.6)

Days since last run

11

Sectional clock

Last time: a shade below par (-0.3s) · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races prominent

Run style & finish

Prominent · finishing speed 98.82% (one-paced late)

Course scale · class context

steps up 11 places on the course scale (FFOS LAS 34th → LINGFIELD PARK 23rd) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

1stClass 6 · 1m2f · rated 644thClass 6 · 1m22y · rated 523rdClass 6 · 1m22y · rated 595thClass 6 · 1m1f110y · rated 566thClass 6 · 1m1f110y · rated 59

Career sheet · last 18 months · 14 rated runs · spacing is real time

Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Thomas Faulkner · 253 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.8 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

At this time of year (Q3)1/512.0%0.293/1030.0%1.92

In Class 6-7 company ✦9/8810.2%1.2112/6518.5%1.65

On turf2/434.7%0.635/3215.6%1.24

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

At Lingfield Park0/90.0%0.00/50.0%0.0

Over 9-10f trips6/2623.1%2.371/214.8%0.5

Coming back after 8 to 14 days4/2516.0%1.852/238.7%0.74

Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 68 at/around today's trip, clears the ~60.0 demand

The rider

Jack Callan · last 14 days: 5/27 · at Lingfield Park: A/E 1.54 (n71)

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 49.5 graded 42% · n=3322

Speed · vs its fields2nd of 6

+0.07 mph

About the level of its fields · 39.5 raw

Break · 0-20mph1st of 6

+0.00s

Quicker away than the field · fast away 2 of 5

Finish · closing speed5th of 6

98.8%

One-paced late

Stride length5th of 6

6.97 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

14 Jul 26Ffos Las1m2fGood61st5451True38.3 -0.34105.0—

15 Jun 26Chepstow1m14yGood64th5451.5True42.7 -0.0696.4-0.10

6 Jun 26Chepstow1m14ySoft63rd5550Fast early41.1 +0.3093.4-0.05

1 Dec 25Wolverhampton1m1f104ySlow65th5755True39.7 +0.7098.6+0.04

25 Oct 25Wolverhampton1m1f104ySlow66th5960True40.4 -0.2599.4+0.07

6 Oct 25Wolverhampton1m142yStd67th6056.5Fast early39.0 +0.07100.1+0.05

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.17very slow2f+0.16fast3f+0.21par4f+0.35par5f+0.23slow6f+0.28par7f+0.07very fast1mledfast1m 1fledfast1m 2fledpar

Timed runs 2025-10-06 to 2026-07-14. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765

Read through a common rival

vs HAVEAGOBEAU (read through BETA READER, KAARESS, AMBER HONEY, QUITE SWEET) ≈ -1.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

vs DOGGED (read through RACING DEMON, GERT LUSH, OTTOMAN) ≈ -0.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.

3lb above his last winning mark (57 today vs 54)Proven at this level — a Class 6 winner, racing in Class 6 todayThe top rating in this field (64.0)Proven over the trip (9 tries, beats market expectation at 1.6)Jockey goes well at this track (1.54x market expectation)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionRace-fit — ran 11 days agoHistorically underestimated by the marketRuns Prominent — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits

LTO comment

“chased leader, going well when led under 3f out, ridden when tackled 2f out, asserted final 100 yds”

#2 CELTIC SPIRIT HELD-UP

DRAW 5 · OR 53 · Robert Havlin / Karen Jewell

MARKET backed 5.5 → 4.4 · the market rates it a 22% chance

Yard mixed — leans against · 2+ / 4−

60.0 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

2nd on the figures, 4pts off the top, backed since the morning; the 3rd-strongest late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it.

FormLab Figure

60.0 · ranked #2 here · career best 60

Official mark (OR)

53 · no win on record

Record at today's distance

0 wins from 1 tries

Days since last run

26

Sectional clock

Last time: ran to par for the class · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races midfield

Run style & finish

Held up · finishing speed 101.38% (holds late)

Course scale · class context

drops 12 places on the course scale (WINDSOR 11th → LINGFIELD PARK 23rd) — much easier company than the bare class suggests

Headgear

First-time cheekpieces

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

5thClass 6 · 1m22y · rated 602ndClass 6 · 7f132y · rated 5914thClass 6 · 1m2f · rated 315thClass 5 · 6f · rated 245thClass 5 · 7f · rated 55

Career sheet · last 18 months · 6 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Karen Jewell · 160 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 8.0 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

At this time of year (Q3)5/559.1%1.631/425.0%3.8

At Lingfield Park4/498.2%1.091/128.3%1.49

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

Over 9-10f trips1/147.1%1.260/70.0%0.0

Coming back after 15 to 45 days4/735.5%0.820/130.0%0.0

On turf2/543.7%0.810/90.0%0.0

In Class 6-7 company4/676.0%0.961/214.8%0.79

Too few runners to read reliably

In fields of <=7 (small sample)1/263.8%0.410/20.0%0.0

Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 61 at/around today's trip, clears the ~60.0 demand

The rider

Robert Havlin · last 14 days: 5/16 · at Lingfield Park: A/E 1.22 (n213) · with this yard: A/E 0.91 (n46)

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 49.5 graded 42% · n=3322

Speed · vs its fields3rd of 6

-0.07 mph

About the level of its fields · 40.0 raw

Break · 0-20mph5th of 6

+0.18s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed3rd of 6

101.4%

Holds its gallop to the line

Stride length2nd of 6

7.32 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

29 Jun 26Windsor1m31yGd/Frm65th5452True40.2 -0.04107.2+0.15

19 May 26Lingfield7f135yGood62nd5252True40.5 +0.7195.3+0.38

25 Apr 26Leicester1m2fGd/Frm614th5756True40.0 -0.1995.9+0.06

22 Dec 25Lingfield6fStd/Slow55th——Fast early40.3 +0.0098.3+0.06

6 Nov 25Chelmsford City7fSlow55th——Slow early39.0 -0.85107.1-0.22

14 Oct 25Lingfield6fStd54th——True40.4 -0.02104.4+0.62

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.63slow2f+0.62very slow3f+0.77very slow4f+0.64par5f+0.55very fast6f+0.49fast7f+0.42fast1m+0.30fast

Timed runs 2025-10-14 to 2026-06-29. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765

Read through a common rival

vs HAVEAGOBEAU (read through HAPPY CHANDLER, SHIFRA, TURPIN, SILKIES SIB) ≈ -3.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

vs DOGGED (read through SHABU SHABU, GALACTIC GLOW) ≈ -3.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.

Rated #2 in this field (60.0)Improving fast — last run rated 60, 10pts above his recent average of 50.0Only 1 run at this distanceHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price

LTO comment

“tracked pace, challenged 2f out, edged left, kept on final 1f, no match for winner”

#3 HAVEAGOBEAU MID

DRAW 2 · OR 52 · Olivia Haines / Jim Boyle

MARKET drifting 4.1 → 5.4 · the market rates it a 18% chance

Yard mixed · 4+ / 4−

59.0 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

3rd on the figures, 5pts off the top, dropping in class; a yard out of form.

FormLab Figure

59.0 · ranked #3 here · career best 59

Official mark (OR)

52 · last won off 46

Record at today's distance

2 wins from 10 tries · beats market expectation (1.97)

Days since last run

24

Sectional clock

Last time: 0.8s slower than par — the result flattered it
Usually races prominent · clock read is off a superseded run

Run style & finish

Midfield · finishing speed 107.66% (strong late)

Course scale · class context

drops 17 places on the course scale (EPSOM DOWNS 6th → LINGFIELD PARK 23rd) — much easier company than the bare class suggests

Field strength · class context

Meets a field 12lb weaker than last time — today's median OR 49.5 vs 62 last run (EPSOM DOWNS · 1 Jul 26)

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

2ndClass 5 · 1m2f22y · rated 595thClass 6 · 1m2f · rated 455thClass 6 · 1m2f · rated 521stClass 6 · 1m2f · rated 562ndClass 6 · 1m2f · rated 54

Career sheet · last 18 months · 18 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Jim Boyle · 464 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.3 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

Over 9-10f trips8/5813.8%1.243/2015.0%1.47

In fields of <=714/7817.9%1.133/2512.0%1.34

At Lingfield Park9/6813.2%1.196/4413.6%1.2

In Class 6-7 company14/13010.8%0.966/4712.8%1.17

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

Above their last winning mark ✦11/10110.9%0.762/414.9%0.38

At this time of year (Q3)14/1638.6%0.851/244.2%0.54

On turf ✦23/2489.3%0.873/674.5%0.56

Coming back after 15 to 45 days ✦12/1697.1%0.684/547.4%0.68

Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 60 at/around today's trip, clears the ~60.0 demand

The rider

Olivia Haines · last 14 days: 0/1 · at Lingfield Park: A/E 14.51 (n1) · with this yard: A/E 0 (n2)

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 49.5 graded 42% · n=3322

Speed · vs its fields1st of 6

+0.60 mph

Faster than the fields it has met · 39.5 raw

Break · 0-20mph3rd of 6

+0.10s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed1st of 6

107.7%

Sustains — still going at the line

Stride length6th of 6

6.81 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

1 Jul 26Epsom Downs1m2f17yGood52nd5162—40.1 +1.32108.7+0.31—

30 May 26Lingfield1m2fGd/Frm65th5249True39.6 +0.97105.2+0.00

7 May 26Windsor1m2fGd/Frm65th5252.5True38.8 +0.52105.6+0.05

12 Feb 26Lingfield1m2fStd62nd——True40.3 +0.33112.7+0.17

31 Jan 26Lingfield1m2fStd/Slow66th——True39.6 +0.28108.7-0.07

21 Jan 26Lingfield1m2fSlow62nd——True38.5 +0.17105.0+0.14

Timed runs 2026-01-21 to 2026-07-01. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765

Read through a common rival

vs CELTIC SPIRIT (read through HAPPY CHANDLER, SHIFRA, TURPIN, SILKIES SIB) ≈ +3.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

vs HOMELAND (read through BETA READER, KAARESS, AMBER HONEY, QUITE SWEET) ≈ +1.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

vs DOGGED (read through FIGHTING POET, MREMBO, AGAPANTHER, GRAFFITI) ≈ -0.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.

6lb above his last winning mark (52 today vs 46)Proven at this level — a Class 6 winner, racing in Class 6 todayDrops in class todayRated #3 in this field (59.0)Proven over the trip (10 tries, beats market expectation at 1.97)Jockey goes well at this track (14.51x market expectation)NEARLY WON LTO — traded 1.1 in-play before being beaten: the market briefly had it the winner (context, not a selector)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the marketA course winner (2 from 17 here)Runs Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits

LTO comment

“mid-field, switched over 2f out, challenged 2f out, weakened final 1f”

#4 LEIA ANTILLES (IRE) MID

DRAW 3 · OR 46 · Nicola Currie / Henry Candy

MARKET 12.5 · the market rates it a 8% chance

Yard mixed — leans against · 2+ / 3−

42.3 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

4th on the figures, 21.7pts off the top, sharp from the stalls; held up without the late gear (6th of 6 on late speed), yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front.

FormLab Figure

42.3 · ranked #4 here · career best 47

Official mark (OR)

46 · no win on record

Record at today's distance

0 wins from 1 tries

Days since last run

21

Sectional clock

Last time: ran to par for the class
Usually races midfield · clock read is off a superseded run

Run style & finish

Midfield · finishing speed 98.25% (one-paced late)

Course scale · class context

steps up 7 places on the course scale (LEICESTER 30th → LINGFIELD PARK 23rd) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade

Field strength · class context

Meets a field 8lb weaker than last time — today's median OR 49.5 vs 57 last run (LEICESTER · 4 Jul 26)

Headgear

First-time cheekpieces

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

5thClass 6 · 1m44y · rated 414thClass 6 · 1m · rated 477thClass 6 · 1m2f · rated —8thClass 4 · 1m · rated 398thClass 5 · 7f · rated —

Career sheet · last 18 months · 4 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Henry Candy · 218 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.8 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

At Lingfield Park0/190.0%0.01/1010.0%1.53

Over 9-10f trips4/2814.3%1.12/1315.4%1.4

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

In Class 6-7 company3/339.1%0.740/240.0%0.0

Coming back after 15 to 45 days2/702.9%0.272/345.9%0.63

At this time of year (Q3)7/828.5%0.731/128.3%0.7

Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 47 is below the ~60.0 the race demands

The rider

Nicola Currie · at Lingfield Park: A/E 0.5 (n75) · with this yard: A/E 0.77 (n64)

Sectional profile · last 4 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 49.5 graded 42% · n=3322

Speed · vs its fields5th of 6

-0.46 mph

Slower than the fields it has met · 37.9 raw

Break · 0-20mph2nd of 6

+0.00s

Quicker away than the field · fast away 4 of 4

Finish · closing speed6th of 6

98.2%

One-paced late

Stride length3rd of 6

7.27 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

4 Jul 26Leicester1m53yGd/Frm65th4757—39.2 +0.0096.6+0.00—

13 Jun 26Bath1mGood64th4862True38.5 -0.30100.1+0.00

29 May 26Chepstow1m2fGd/Frm67th5052True37.9 -0.8694.0+0.00

28 Apr 26Lingfield1mStd48th——True38.3 -0.70102.3+0.00

Timed runs 2026-04-28 to 2026-07-04. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

Data gaps · never met today's rivals

Only 1 run at this distanceHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits

LTO comment

“mid-field, outpaced over 2f out, faded inside final 1f”

#5 DOGGED MID FORMLAB WATCH

DRAW 6 · OR 47 · Kieren Fox / Tony Carroll

MARKET 9.2 · the market rates it a 11% chance

Yard mixed — leans for · 2+ / 1−

38.3 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

5th on the figures, 25.7pts off the top, flagged on our watch list; one-paced late — 4th of 6 on late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front.

FormLab Figure

38.3 · ranked #5 here · career best 72

Official mark (OR)

47 · last won off 67

Record at today's distance

3 wins from 20 tries · beats market expectation (1.5)

Days since last run

18

Sectional clock

Last time: 1.8s slower than par — the result flattered it
Usually races midfield

Run style & finish

Midfield · finishing speed 98.84% (one-paced late)

Course scale · class context

steps up 13 places on the course scale (BRIGHTON 36th → LINGFIELD PARK 23rd) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade

Headgear

First-time visor · yard 9% with first-time gear (A/E 0.96)

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

6thClass 6 · 1m1f198y · rated 272ndClass 6 · 1m1f198y · rated 559thClass 6 · 1m3f132y · rated 339thClass 6 · 1m3f88y · rated 1712thClass 6 · 1m3f176y · rated —

Career sheet · last 18 months · 9 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Tony Carroll · 2405 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.4 on the exchange

Signature angle: at Bath, at this time of year (Q2), on turf, off a TFR-FALLING figure trend, with the mark MARK-FLAT, without a recent yard winner, with a CLAIM-7 claimer up

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

Below their last winning mark11/1656.7%0.6720/10219.6%1.57

On turf ✦97/70713.7%1.248/24819.4%1.39

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

At this time of year (Q3) ✦51/49310.3%0.957/7010.0%0.84

Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 72 at/around today's trip, clears the ~60.0 demand

The rider

Kieren Fox · last 14 days: 0/10 · at Lingfield Park: A/E 0.59 (n24) · with this yard: A/E 0 (n14)

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 49.5 graded 42% · n=3322

Speed · vs its fields4th of 6

-0.23 mph

Slower than the fields it has met · 41.2 raw

Break · 0-20mph4th of 6

+0.16s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed4th of 6

98.8%

One-paced late

Stride length1st of 6

7.89 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

7 Jul 26Brighton1m1f207yGd/Frm66th——True41.4 +0.0099.9+0.51

21 Jun 26Brighton1m1f207yGd/Frm62nd46—True41.3 +0.04101.9+0.00

13 Jun 26Bath1m3f137yGood69th4650True37.9 +0.0595.4+0.06

1 Jun 26Windsor1m3f99yGd/Frm69th4750.5True39.5 -0.61105.5+0.43

28 Oct 25Leicester1m3f179ySoft612th4855.5True35.7 -0.2787.9+0.00

16 Oct 25Brighton1m1f207yGd/Frm68th5056Slow early41.0 -0.56102.5-0.04

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.37slow2f+0.26par3f+0.22very slow4f+0.22slow5f+0.20slow6f+0.20very fast7f+0.13fast1m+0.21par1m 1f+0.86slow1m 2f+2.47very slow

Timed runs 2025-10-16 to 2026-07-07. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765

Read through a common rival

vs CELTIC SPIRIT (read through SHABU SHABU, GALACTIC GLOW) ≈ +3.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

vs HOMELAND (read through RACING DEMON, GERT LUSH, OTTOMAN) ≈ +0.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

vs HAVEAGOBEAU (read through FIGHTING POET, MREMBO, AGAPANTHER, GRAFFITI) ≈ +0.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.

20lb below his last winning mark (47 today vs 67)Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 6 todayProven over the trip (20 tries, beats market expectation at 1.5)Lost roughly 2.3 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the marketRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits

LTO comment

“prominent, challenged 2f out, led briefly over 1f out, kept on, clear of rest”

#6 MISTER PRETENTIOUS MID

DRAW  · OR 46 · Kieran O'Neill / Luke Dace

MARKET 20 · the market rates it a 5% chance

Yard mixed — leans against · 3+ / 4−

32 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

6th on the figures, 32pts off the top, one of the two strongest finishers here; the 2nd-strongest late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it.

FormLab Figure

32 · ranked #6 here · career best 33

Official mark (OR)

46 · no win on record

Record at today's distance

0 wins from 1 tries

Days since last run

12

Sectional clock

Last time: 2.7s slower than par — the result flattered it · among the slowest in its race
Usually races held-up (one-paced)

Run style & finish

Midfield · finishing speed 101.46% (holds late)

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

12thClass 6 · 1m4f · rated 318thClass 6 · 1m3f132y · rated 3211thClass 4 · 1m2f · rated 3311thClass 5 · 1m · rated 2910thClass 5 · 1m · rated 28

Career sheet · last 18 months · 5 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Luke Dace · 178 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 11.9 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

At this time of year (Q3)4/449.1%1.111/520.0%3.48

In fields of <=73/329.4%0.772/1315.4%1.79

On turf5/578.8%1.121/185.6%1.32

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

Over 9-10f trips0/50.0%0.00/50.0%0.0

Coming back after 8 to 14 days4/3112.9%1.360/70.0%0.0

In Class 6-7 company3/3010.0%1.091/205.0%0.69

At Lingfield Park2/385.3%0.561/234.3%0.72

Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 33 is below the ~60.0 the race demands

The rider

Kieran O'Neill · last 14 days: 1/19 · at Lingfield Park: A/E 0.77 (n264) · with this yard: A/E 0 (n1)

Sectional profile · last 5 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 49.5 graded 42% · n=3322

Speed · vs its fields6th of 6

-0.63 mph

Slower than the fields it has met · 38.2 raw

Break · 0-20mph6th of 6

+0.27s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed2nd of 6

101.5%

Holds its gallop to the line

Stride length4th of 6

7.16 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

13 Jul 26Lingfield1m4fStd612th——True38.6 +0.03104.2-0.02

30 May 26Lingfield1m3f133yGd/Frm68th4652True37.4 -0.71103.8+0.56

11 May 26Windsor1m2fGd/Frm411th——True38.2 -0.96103.3+0.14

7 Oct 25Brighton7f216yGd/Sft511th——True39.2 -0.9194.0+0.04

24 Sep 25Kempton Park1mSlow510th——True38.1 -0.60102.1+0.63

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.05very fast2f+0.06fast3f+0.08par4fledslow5fledslow6fledslow7fledslow1m+0.02slow1m 1f+0.13par1m 2f+0.41slow1m 3f+1.01very slow1m 4f+2.15very slow

Timed runs 2025-09-24 to 2026-07-13. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

Data gaps · never met today's rivals

Only 1 run at this distanceRace-fit — ran 12 days agoHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price

LTO comment

“off pace, ridden 3f out, little impression”