FORMLAB RACING
THE SCIENCE OF FORM  ·  RACE INTELLIGENCE REPORT
Lingfield Park · 18:30
Class 5 · 6f · Good to Firm
GENERATED 2026-07-25 · 9 RUNNERS PROFILED
BUILT 12:49 · 25 Jul · GOING AT BUILD: Good to Firm
THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYSboth orders below are marked against the actual results every night — how often each one’s top pick won, and how often the winner came from its projected top 3full record →
DATA ORDERtop pick won 29.3%winner in its top 3 60.6%297 settled raceslatest day: won 9/32 · top-3 19/32
FORENSIC READtop pick won 28.6%winner in its top 3 58.9%224 settled races(the Data Order on those same races: 28.1% · 58%)
THE RECORD IN RACES LIKE THISthe same nightly-settled record, kept only to past races sharing this race’s profile
Data OrderForensic Read
races like this onesettledwontop-3wontop-3
Class 56131.1%63.9%29.5%65.6%
sprints (5-7f)11326.5%55.8%28.3%58.4%
non-handicaps6535.4%55.4%35.4%63.1%
mid fields (8-11)6921.7%46.4%20.3%46.4%
The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW
No confirmed early pace on the book, so this one may turn tactical. Winners here typically raced recently (80% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (80% from the first three favourites); the typical winner also sits around 3rd at halfway before quickening late, having spent about 48% of its energy before the final two furlongs. On the measured reads, ROCSANE (IRE) leads on 71, 3pts clear of SUMMER TRIANGLE — among the two fastest on speed against its past fields. Little to argue against on the measured reads — the only question is the price. The shape danger is SUMMER TRIANGLE — the strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it. The market sees it differently, making SUMMER TRIANGLE the 32% favourite — a horse our figures rate 2nd.
MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE
The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3
1ST · DATA ORDER DRAW 8
ROCSANE (IRE)
OR · Harry Burns / George Margarson
71.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 7−The top rating in this field (71.0)
2ND · DATA ORDER DRAW 6
SUMMER TRIANGLE
OR · Rhys Clutterbuck / Gary & Josh Moore
MARKET 3 · the market rates it a 32% chance
68.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD
Yard suits today’s conditions · 5+ / 0−Drops in class todayRated #2 in this field (68.0)
3RD · DATA ORDER DRAW 3
YANKEEDOODLEDANDY
OR · William Cox / J. S. Moore
MARKET drifting 34 → 38 · the market rates it a 3% chance
57.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans against · 2+ / 5−Rated #3 in this field (57.0)Met trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultRace-fit — ran 10 days ago
The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY
1SUMMER TRIANGLEnet +10figure top-2, drops in class, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, top-2 late speed today, sharp from the stalls, energy in the winning band
2ROCSANE (IRE)net +6figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), top-2 speed vs its fields, energy in the winning band, fits the winner profile on recency
3LAST DANDELIONnet +5race-fit (ran <=45d), market top-3, top-2 late speed today, top-2 speed vs its fields, yard positive in today’s setup
EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD
THE CASE AGAINST THE TOP PICK graded 36% · n=119
Little to argue against on the measured reads — the only question is the price. SUMMER TRIANGLE is the one to beat it — an edge ROCSANE (IRE) lacks: fits the winner profile on market position.
Balance, not doubt for its own sake — every pick has a case against; a reader should see ours.
Race ShapePACE × FINISH
even/unclear early shape (no confirmed early types). Descriptive context — the shape never selects.
What this course & distance favours
Flat, very short straight (~200yd / ~1f) — a sprint home finish. Draw: Modern Poly data broadly FAIR incl. 5f (low NOT clearly advantaged despite the tight early bend). at 5f a HOLD-UP/closer edge is statistically meaningful. Winners’ energy signature: 48.45% spent early (band 47.76–49.47%, 189 measured winners, and the typical winner sits ~3 at halfway, 0.22s off the lead). graded 42% · n=389
WHAT WINS THIS RACE graded 81% · n=89
15 similar races at LINGFIELD PARK, 5.5-6.5f, 2yo non-handicaps, Class 4-6, Jun-Aug, 2023-2026 (class band widened for sample)
Winners here typically raced recently (80% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (80% from the first three favourites). 13% won last time out, 40% were placed 2nd-3rd.
Last ran
53% 15-45d
27% within 14d
20% first run
Market
60% favourite
20% 4th+ in the market
13% 2nd favourite
LTO form
40% placed last time
27% unplaced last time
20% first run
The shape of past winners here · context only, never picks the horse.
Where the pace is drawn · 9 runners · stalls 1–9
123456789
Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner.
If the ground changes
Should it turn softer: ROCSANE (IRE) is 0/1 on softer ground · SUMMER TRIANGLE is unraced on softer ground · YANKEEDOODLEDANDY is 0/1 on softer ground. Records only — going aptitude is context, never a downgrade (the market prices it).
RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup
FORTUNATE MID 51.5% 100.9 solid late gains (5th of 8 on late speed here), yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it
LAST DANDELION MID 49.9% 103.0 the 2nd-strongest late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it
MYSTIC BALLISTIC HELD-UP 51.0% 97.3 held up without the late gear (8th of 8 on late speed), yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
ROBERTS LEGACY MID 50.1% 99.4 one-paced late — 7th of 8 on late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
ROCSANE (IRE) HELD-UP 48.5% 102.9 the 3rd-strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
SPIRIT OF LYRA (IRE) — — 101.5 -
SUMMER TRIANGLE MID 48.6% 104.9 the strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
WILD ORCHID — — — -
YANKEEDOODLEDANDY HELD-UP 48.7% 100.9 solid late gains (5th of 8 on late speed here), races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER
#1 ROCSANE (IRE) HELD-UP
DRAW 8 · OR · 9-2 · −3lb claim = 8-13 carried · Harry Burns / George Margarson
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 7−
71.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
Top on the figures, 3pts clear of the next, among the two fastest on speed against its past fields; the 3rd-strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it.
FormLab Figure
71.0 · ranked #1 here · career best 71
Official mark (OR)
unrated · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 3 tries
Days since last run
29
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 102.94% (holds late)
Recent form · last 3 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
2ndClass 5 · 6f · rated 713rdClass 4 · 6f · rated 645thClass 4 · 6f · rated 42
Career sheet · last 18 months · 3 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for ROCSANE (IRE)best 71needs 64–692026-05-13 · TFR 42 · 6f · Gd/Sft · C42026-06-04 · TFR 64 · 6f · Std · C42026-06-26 · TFR 71 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C513 May 2626 Jun 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
George Margarson · 216 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 8.4 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At Lingfield Park1/911.1%1.240/60.0%0.0
Over 5-6f trips3/466.5%0.860/200.0%0.0
Coming back after 15 to 45 days7/868.1%0.930/300.0%0.0
At this time of year (Q3)4/596.8%0.870/120.0%0.0
In fields of 8-116/857.1%0.810/300.0%0.0
On turf10/1208.3%1.061/541.9%0.25
In Class 4-5 company8/7410.8%1.311/283.6%0.36
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 69 at/around today's trip, clears the ~64.0 demand
The rider
Harry Burns · last 14 days: 0/2 · at Lingfield Park: A/E 0.78 (n52) · with this yard: A/E 0.71 (n17)
Sectional profile · last 3 timed runs · ranks are against today's field graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields2nd of 8
+0.21 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 40.0 raw
Break · 0-20mph4th of 8
+0.18s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed3rd of 8
102.9%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length8th of 8
6.95 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
26 Jun 26Yarmouth6fGd/Frm52nd——True40.6 +0.24103.8+0.00
4 Jun 26Lingfield6fStd43rd——True40.5 +1.04106.9+0.12
13 May 26Yarmouth6fGd/Sft45th——Slow early39.0 -0.6698.2+0.42
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.17par2f+0.18slow3f+0.24slow4f+0.19par5f+0.17fast6f+0.17fast
Timed runs 2026-05-13 to 2026-06-26. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
LAST DANDELION · 1 meeting≈ 11.2L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
26 Jun 26 · 6f · Gd/Frm — finished 2nd vs 11th, 11.15L ahead
ROBERTS LEGACY · 1 meeting≈ 12.7L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
26 Jun 26 · 6f · Gd/Frm — finished 2nd vs 12th, 12.65L ahead
THIN [n=2 meeting(s), 2 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 2 rival(s) met (+11.9L adj, 2 meeting(s))
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Data gaps · unrated (no official mark)
The top rating in this field (71.0)Improving fast — last run rated 71, 12pts above his recent average of 59.0Only 3 runs at this distanceNEARLY WON LTO — traded 1.5 in-play before being beaten: the market briefly had it the winner (context, not a selector)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina question
LTO comment
“in touch, effort 2f out, took second final 1f, stayed on”
#2 SUMMER TRIANGLE MID
DRAW 6 · OR · Rhys Clutterbuck / Gary & Josh Moore
MARKET 3 · the market rates it a 32% chance
Yard suits today’s conditions · 5+ / 0−
68.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
2nd on the figures, 3pts off the top, fits the winner profile on market position; the strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it.
FormLab Figure
68.0 · ranked #2 here · career best 68
Official mark (OR)
unrated · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 2 tries
Days since last run
16
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 104.94% (strong late)
Course scale · class context
drops 17 places on the course scale (EPSOM DOWNS 6th → LINGFIELD PARK 23rd) — much easier company than the bare class suggests
Recent form · last 2 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
2ndClass 4 · 7f · rated 6810thClass 2 · 5f · rated 43
Career sheet · last 18 months · 2 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for SUMMER TRIANGLEbest 68needs 64–692026-05-08 · TFR 43 · 5f · Good · C22026-07-09 · TFR 68 · 7f · Gd/Frm · C48 May 269 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Gary & Josh Moore · 800 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.7 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Over 5-6f trips8/958.4%0.99/4918.4%1.88
Coming back after 15 to 45 days34/31110.9%0.9418/9219.6%1.79
In fields of 8-1129/3159.2%0.915/11113.5%1.55
At Lingfield Park14/11412.3%1.05/4910.2%1.46
At this time of year (Q3)26/2968.8%0.746/3119.4%1.27
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 64 at/around today's trip, clears the ~64.0 demand
The rider
Rhys Clutterbuck · last 14 days: 2/16 · at Lingfield Park: A/E 0.86 (n178) · with this yard: A/E 0.5 (n114)
Sectional profile · last 2 timed runs · ranks are against today's field graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields3rd of 8
+0.07 mph
About the level of its fields · 40.2 raw · only 2 runs
Break · 0-20mph3rd of 8
+0.04s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed1st of 8
104.9%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length7th of 8
7.07 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
9 Jul 26Epsom Downs7fGd/Frm42nd———42.7 +0.38106.4+0.00—
8 May 26Ascot5fGood210th——Slow early40.2 -0.25103.5+0.08
Timed runs 2026-05-08 to 2026-07-09. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Data gaps · sectional read off only 2 timed runs · unrated (no official mark) · never met today's rivals · thin Timeform history (2 figures)
Drops in class todayRated #2 in this field (68.0)Improving fast — last run rated 68, 12pts above his recent average of 55.5Only 2 runs at this distance
LTO comment
“in touch, under pressure over 2f out, led briefly final 100 yds, kept on”
#3 YANKEEDOODLEDANDY HELD-UP
DRAW 3 · OR · William Cox / J. S. Moore
MARKET drifting 34 → 38 · the market rates it a 3% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 2+ / 5−
57.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
3rd on the figures, 14pts off the top, in form; solid late gains (5th of 8 on late speed here), races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it.
FormLab Figure
57.0 · ranked #3 here · career best 57
Official mark (OR)
unrated · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 3 tries
Days since last run
10
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 100.86% (holds late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 12 places on the course scale (BATH 35th → LINGFIELD PARK 23rd) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Recent form · last 3 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
3rdClass 5 · 5f · rated 578thClass 3 · 6f · rated 1613thClass 4 · 6f22y · rated 39
Career sheet · last 18 months · 3 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for YANKEEDOODLEDANDYneeds 64–69best 572026-06-22 · TFR 39 · 6f11y · Gd/Frm · C42026-07-04 · TFR 16 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C32026-07-15 · TFR 57 · 5f11y · Firm · C522 Jun 2615 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
J. S. Moore · 528 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 8.8 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3)10/1546.5%0.822/258.0%1.37
Coming back after 8 to 14 days6/1015.9%0.83/2412.5%1.32
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At Lingfield Park7/6311.1%1.790/150.0%0.0
Over 5-6f trips8/1375.8%0.71/521.9%0.36
On turf14/2186.4%0.863/763.9%0.62
In fields of 8-1117/2008.5%1.132/673.0%0.63
In Class 4-5 company17/1729.9%1.483/644.7%0.72
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 53 is below the ~64.0 the race demands
The rider
William Cox · last 14 days: 0/11 · at Lingfield Park: A/E 0.4 (n74) · with this yard: A/E 0 (n17)
Sectional profile · last 3 timed runs · ranks are against today's field graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields5th of 8
-0.09 mph
About the level of its fields · 40.8 raw
Break · 0-20mph6th of 8
+0.30s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed6th of 8
100.9%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length1st of 8
7.58 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
15 Jul 26Bath5f10yFirm53rd——True40.8 +0.00101.2—
4 Jul 26Leicester6fGd/Frm38th———41.7 -0.3597.4+0.26—
22 Jun 26Windsor6f12yGd/Frm413th——True39.9 +0.08104.0+0.33
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.63slow2f+0.59par3f+0.61par4f+0.62par5f+0.31par
Timed runs 2026-06-22 to 2026-07-15. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
LAST DANDELION · 1 meeting≈ 0.2L ahead on today's terms · line-ball
15 Jul 26 · 5f10y · Firm — finished 3rd vs 4th, 0.2L ahead
THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — line-ball vs 1 rival(s) met (+0.2L adj, 1 meeting(s))
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Data gaps · unrated (no official mark)
Rated #3 in this field (57.0)Improving fast — last run rated 57, 19pts above his recent average of 37.3Only 3 runs at this distanceMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultRace-fit — ran 10 days ago
LTO comment
“rear, outpaced halfway, took third close home”
#4 LAST DANDELION MID
DRAW 1 · OR · Pat Cosgrave / Stuart Williams
MARKET 8.4 · the market rates it a 12% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 2−
56.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
4th on the figures, 15pts off the top, one of the two strongest finishers here; the 2nd-strongest late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it.
FormLab Figure
56.0 · ranked #4 here · career best 62
Official mark (OR)
unrated · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 5 tries
Days since last run
10
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 102.97% (holds late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 12 places on the course scale (BATH 35th → LINGFIELD PARK 23rd) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Headgear
First-time cheekpieces · yard 8% with first-time gear (A/E 0.9)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
4thClass 5 · 5f · rated 5611thClass 5 · 6f · rated 323rdClass 4 · 6f · rated 625thClass 2 · 6f · rated 5510thClass 4 · 6f · rated 32
Career sheet · last 18 months · 5 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for LAST DANDELIONneeds 64–69best 622026-04-30 · TFR 32 · 6f · Slow · C42026-05-15 · TFR 55 · 6f · Good · C22026-06-04 · TFR 62 · 6f · Std · C42026-06-26 · TFR 32 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C52026-07-15 · TFR 56 · 5f11y · Firm · C530 Apr 2615 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Stuart Williams · 973 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.7 on the exchange
Signature angle: kept to the same class, off marks in the 61 to 75 range, with their 3yos, off a judgement-rated last figure
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At Lingfield Park11/5918.6%1.133/2412.5%1.15
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Coming back after 8 to 14 days11/1219.1%0.712/365.6%0.53
In fields of 8-1159/39315.0%1.2410/1218.3%0.85
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 62 is below the ~64.0 the race demands
The rider
Pat Cosgrave · last 14 days: 1/22 · at Lingfield Park: A/E 0.66 (n148) · with this yard: A/E 1.74 (n32)
Sectional profile · last 5 timed runs · ranks are against today's field graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields1st of 8
+0.37 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 40.6 raw
Break · 0-20mph7th of 8
+0.34s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed2nd of 8
103.0%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length6th of 8
7.16 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
15 Jul 26Bath5f10yFirm54th——True40.9 +0.1399.4—
26 Jun 26Yarmouth6fGd/Frm511th——True40.4 +0.0098.3+0.28
4 Jun 26Lingfield6fStd43rd——True42.3 +1.18112.6+0.31
15 May 26Newmarket6fGood25th——True40.5 +0.37102.8+0.25
30 Apr 26Kempton Park6fSlow410th——True38.7 +0.19101.8+0.53
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.46slow2f+0.34fast3f+0.18par4f+0.22par5f+0.32slow
Timed runs 2026-04-30 to 2026-07-15. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
ROBERTS LEGACY · 1 meeting≈ 1.5L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
26 Jun 26 · 6f · Gd/Frm — finished 11th vs 12th, 1.5L ahead
ROCSANE (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 11.2L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
26 Jun 26 · 6f · Gd/Frm — finished 11th vs 2nd, 11.15L behind
YANKEEDOODLEDANDY · 1 meeting≈ 0.2L behind on today's terms · line-ball
15 Jul 26 · 5f10y · Firm — finished 4th vs 3rd, 0.2L behind
THIN [single meeting dominates the net] — context only, not a bet leg — REVERSES strongly vs 3 rival(s) met (-3.1L adj, 3 meeting(s))
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Data gaps · unrated (no official mark)
Only 5 runs at this distanceRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionRace-fit — ran 10 days agoHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price
LTO comment
“held up, in touch halfway, bumped under 2f out, no extra final ½f”
#5 SPIRIT OF LYRA (IRE)
DRAW 2 · OR · Neil Callan / William Knight
MARKET 3.05 · the market rates it a 32% chance
Yard mixed · 2+ / 2−
54.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
5th on the figures, 17pts off the top, prominent in the betting; the price is the only question.
FormLab Figure
54.0 · ranked #5 here · career best 54
Official mark (OR)
unrated · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 1 tries
Days since last run
19
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
— · finishing speed 101.5% (holds late)
Course scale · class context
drops 9 places on the course scale (RIPON 14th → LINGFIELD PARK 23rd) — much easier company than the bare class suggests
Recent form · last 1 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
4thClass 5 · 6f · rated 54
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
William Knight · 563 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.5 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Over 5-6f trips ✦13/9513.7%1.459/3525.7%1.55
On turf ✦38/27713.7%1.2114/9015.6%1.16
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At Lingfield Park7/3221.9%1.521/175.9%0.43
In fields of 8-1133/21915.1%1.237/6710.4%0.66
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 55 is below the ~64.0 the race demands
The rider
Neil Callan · last 14 days: 2/9 · at Lingfield Park: A/E 0.81 (n131) · with this yard: A/E 0.57 (n64)
Sectional profile · last 1 timed run · ranks are against today's field graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields4th of 8
+0.00 mph
About the level of its fields · 40.3 raw · only 1 run
Break · 0-20mph2nd of 8
+0.00s
Quicker away than the field · fast away 1 of 1
Finish · closing speed4th of 8
101.5%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length2nd of 8
7.57 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
6 Jul 26Ripon6fGood54th———40.3 +0.00101.5+0.00—
Timed runs 2026-07-06 to 2026-07-06. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Data gaps · sectional read off only 1 timed run · unrated (no official mark) · never met today's rivals · thin Timeform history (1 figure)
Only 1 run at this distance
LTO comment
“dwelt, mid-division, outpaced halfway, kept on”
#6 MYSTIC BALLISTIC HELD-UP
DRAW 9 · OR · Thomas Greatrex / Hilal Kobeissi
MARKET 28 · the market rates it a 4% chance
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 4−
43.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
6th on the figures, 28pts off the top, dropping in class; tends to burn early and empty out.
FormLab Figure
43.0 · ranked #6 here · career best 43
Official mark (OR)
unrated · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 1 tries
Days since last run
10
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 97.32% (one-paced late)
Recent form · last 1 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
5thClass 4 · 6f · rated 43
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Hilal Kobeissi · 86 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 20.9 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In Class 4-5 company7/5313.2%1.450/90.0%0.0
Over 5-6f trips3/2810.7%0.930/60.0%0.0
On turf6/5111.8%1.390/90.0%0.0
In fields of 8-115/3514.3%2.070/50.0%0.0
Too few runners to read reliably
At Lingfield Park (small sample)0/60.0%0.00/30.0%0.0
Coming back after 8 to 14 days (small sample)1/812.5%1.230/10.0%0.0
At this time of year (Q3) (small sample)5/3514.3%1.790/20.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 43 is below the ~64.0 the race demands
The rider
Thomas Greatrex · last 14 days: 0/6 · at Lingfield Park: A/E 1.25 (n27)
Sectional profile · last 1 timed run · ranks are against today's field graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields6th of 8
-0.31 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 41.7 raw · only 1 run
Break · 0-20mph8th of 8
+0.35s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed8th of 8
97.3%
One-paced late
Stride length3rd of 8
7.54 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
15 Jul 26Lingfield6fGd/Frm45th——True41.7 -0.3197.3+0.35
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+1.14slow2f+1.69fast3f+1.39fast4f+1.27par5f+1.33slow6f+1.21very slow
Timed runs 2026-07-15 to 2026-07-15. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Data gaps · sectional read off only 1 timed run · unrated (no official mark) · never met today's rivals · thin Timeform history (1 figure)
Drops in class todayOnly 1 run at this distanceRace-fit — ran 10 days ago
#7 FORTUNATE MID
DRAW 7 · OR · 9-2 · −7lb claim = 8-9 carried · Oliver Carmichael / Eve Johnson Houghton
MARKET 36 · the market rates it a 3% chance
Yard suits today’s conditions · 3+ / 0−
38.3 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
7th on the figures, 32.7pts off the top, sharp from the stalls; tends to burn early and empty out.
FormLab Figure
38.3 · ranked #7 here · career best 56
Official mark (OR)
unrated · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 6 tries
Days since last run
17
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 100.86% (holds late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 10 places on the course scale (CATTERICK BRIDGE 33rd → LINGFIELD PARK 23rd) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Headgear
First-time cheekpieces · yard 8% with first-time gear (A/E 0.98)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
9thClass 6 · 5f · rated 315thClass 3 · 5f · rated 284thClass 4 · 6f22y · rated 5610thClass 4 · 6f · rated —13thClass 4 · 5f · rated —
Career sheet · last 18 months · 4 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for FORTUNATEneeds 64–69best 562026-04-06 · TFR 44 · 5f22y · Std · C42026-05-30 · TFR 56 · 6f18y · Good · C42026-06-07 · TFR 28 · 5f · Soft · C32026-07-08 · TFR 31 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C66 Apr 268 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Eve Johnson Houghton · 1052 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.0 on the exchange
Signature angle: off a TFR-FALLING figure trend
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3) ✦38/36410.4%1.0210/5219.2%1.29
On turf ✦64/57611.1%1.0627/18614.5%1.22
In Class 4-5 company ✦66/49713.3%1.1425/15715.9%1.16
Too few runners to read reliably
At Lingfield Park (small sample)2/454.4%0.471/1010.0%0.89
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 57 is below the ~64.0 the race demands
The rider
Oliver Carmichael · last 14 days: 1/7 · at Lingfield Park: A/E 1.82 (n10) · with this yard: A/E 1.86 (n63)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields7th of 8
-0.38 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 39.1 raw
Break · 0-20mph1st of 8
-0.04s
Quicker away than the field · fast away 4 of 5
Finish · closing speed5th of 8
100.9%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length5th of 8
7.17 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
8 Jul 26Catterick Bridge5fGd/Frm69th6060—41.6 -0.08103.3-0.03—
7 Jun 26Goodwood5fSoft35th——Slow early40.1 -0.09102.0+0.00
30 May 26Chester6f17yGood44th——Slow early38.5 -0.0598.7-0.27
20 May 26Kempton Park6fSlow410th——True37.7 -1.72104.4+0.12
17 Apr 26Bath5f10yGood413th——True37.6 -0.3892.8+0.00
6 Apr 26Wolverhampton5f21yStd46th——True39.1 +0.02103.9—
Timed runs 2026-04-06 to 2026-07-08. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. · finishing speed for 4 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. · 2 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Data gaps · unrated (no official mark) · never met today's rivals
Jockey goes well at this track (1.82x market expectation)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price
LTO comment
“pressed leader, weakening when short of room over 1f out”
#8 ROBERTS LEGACY MID
DRAW 5 · OR · Kieran O'Neill / Lemos De Souza
MARKET backed 46 → 12 · the market rates it a 8% chance
Yard suits today’s conditions · 7+ / 0−
25.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
8th on the figures, 46pts off the top, backed since the morning; one-paced late — 7th of 8 on late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front.
FormLab Figure
25.0 · ranked #8 here · career best 25
Official mark (OR)
unrated · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 1 tries
Days since last run
29
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 99.43% (one-paced late)
Recent form · last 1 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
12thClass 5 · 6f · rated 25
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Lemos De Souza · 239 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 8.7 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3)5/539.4%1.274/944.4%3.02
At Lingfield Park1/195.3%0.631/714.3%2.51
Coming back after 15 to 45 days8/998.1%1.137/3520.0%1.96
Over 5-6f trips4/685.9%0.738/4916.3%1.7
In fields of 8-118/948.5%1.27/3917.9%1.67
On turf7/798.9%1.077/4017.5%1.56
In Class 4-5 company9/1098.3%1.257/3917.9%1.51
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 25 is below the ~64.0 the race demands
The rider
Kieran O'Neill · last 14 days: 1/19 · at Lingfield Park: A/E 0.77 (n264) · with this yard: A/E 1.96 (n9)
Sectional profile · last 1 timed run · ranks are against today's field graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields8th of 8
-0.95 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 39.5 raw · only 1 run
Break · 0-20mph5th of 8
+0.19s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed7th of 8
99.4%
One-paced late
Stride length4th of 8
7.22 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
26 Jun 26Yarmouth6fGd/Frm512th——True39.5 -0.9599.4+0.19
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.28par2f+0.21slow3f+0.19slow4f+0.57slow5f+1.31very slow6f+2.27very slow
Timed runs 2026-06-26 to 2026-06-26. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
LAST DANDELION · 1 meeting≈ 1.5L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
26 Jun 26 · 6f · Gd/Frm — finished 12th vs 11th, 1.5L behind
ROCSANE (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 12.7L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
26 Jun 26 · 6f · Gd/Frm — finished 12th vs 2nd, 12.65L behind
THIN [n=2 meeting(s), 2 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — REVERSES strongly vs 2 rival(s) met (-7.1L adj, 2 meeting(s))
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Data gaps · sectional read off only 1 timed run · unrated (no official mark) · thin Timeform history (1 figure)
Only 1 run at this distanceRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionSectional speed profile fits here — but his run-style (Mid) is rare among winners at this course & distance
LTO comment
“prominent, weakened 2f out”
#9 WILD ORCHID
DRAW 4 · OR · 9-2 · −3lb claim = 8-13 carried · Jack Callan / Charlie Johnston
MARKET drifting 11.5 → 13.5 · the market rates it a 7% chance
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 4−
— FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
A double-figure price; a yard out of form.
FormLab Figure
no rating yet (no rated runs on record)
Official mark (OR)
unrated · no win on record
Record at today's distance
untried at this distance
Days since last run
first run on record
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
— · no timed finishing data
Recent form · last 0 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Charlie Johnston · 2333 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.5 on the exchange
Signature angle: with the mark MARK-FALLING3+
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Over 5-6f trips ✦17/1948.8%0.682/513.9%0.37
At Lingfield Park ✦12/11110.8%0.754/3611.1%0.78
At this time of year (Q3) ✦77/72610.6%0.8310/9910.1%0.78
On turf ✦120/112810.6%0.8536/33910.6%0.85
Can it do what today needs? no figure on record — unproven
The rider
Jack Callan · last 14 days: 5/27 · at Lingfield Park: A/E 1.54 (n71) · with this yard: A/E 1.4 (n56)
Sectional profile
No timed runs on record — this horse has no sectional history to read.
Data gaps · no timed sectional runs on record · unrated (no official mark) · never met today's rivals · thin Timeform history (0 figures) · no FormLab figure
Stable cold this week — 0 wins from 21 runsJockey goes well at this track (1.54x market expectation)