BUILT 12:50 · 25 Jul · GOING AT BUILD: Good to Firm
THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYSboth orders below are marked against the actual results every night — how often each one’s top pick won, and how often the winner came from its projected top 3full record →
DATA ORDERtop pick won 29.3%winner in its top 3 60.6%297 settled raceslatest day: won 9/32 · top-3 19/32
FORENSIC READtop pick won 28.6%winner in its top 3 58.9%224 settled races(the Data Order on those same races: 28.1% · 58%)
THE RECORD IN RACES LIKE THISthe same nightly-settled record, kept only to past races sharing this race’s profile
Data Order
Forensic Read
races like this one
settled
won
top-3
won
top-3
Class 4
72
25%
58.3%
29.2%
62.5%
sprints (5-7f)
113
26.5%
55.8%
28.3%
58.4%
handicaps
159
25.2%
59.1%
25.8%
57.2%
small fields (<=7)
136
33.8%
66.2%
35.3%
70.6%
The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW
ESPONA BAY (IRE) is the only confirmed early type — if it breaks level it should get the front to itself. Winners here typically raced recently (94% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (69% from the first three favourites); the typical winner also sits around 3rd at halfway before quickening late, having spent about 48% of its energy before the final two furlongs. On the measured reads, DEBRIEF leads on 84, 5pts clear of ADALIDA — among the two fastest on speed against its past fields. Little to argue against on the measured reads — the only question is the price. The shape danger is ADALIDA — the strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it. The market sees it differently, making ESPONA BAY (IRE) the 36% favourite — a horse our figures rate 3rd.
MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE
The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3
1ST · DATA ORDERDRAW 1
DEBRIEF
OR 79 · Pierre-Louis Jamin / Harry Eustace
MARKET drifting 2.8 → 3.9 · the market rates it a 26% chance
84.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans for · 4+ / 1−Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayThe top rating in this field (84.0)
2ND · DATA ORDERDRAW 4
ADALIDA
OR 73 · Pat Cosgrave / Stuart Williams
MARKET 7.8 · the market rates it a 13% chance
79.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans for · 2+ / 1−Rated #2 in this field (79.0)Race-fit — ran 10 days agoA course winner (1 from 1 here)
3RD · DATA ORDERDRAW 5
ESPONA BAY (IRE)
OR 66 · Kieran O'Neill / Scott Dixon
MARKET backed 3.55 → 2.78 · the market rates it a 36% chance
75.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans for · 5+ / 1−Rated #3 in this field (75.0)Race-fit — ran 8 days agoRuns Prominent — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY
1ESPONA BAY (IRE)net +8race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, backed since morning, top-2 late speed today, runs the dominant winning style here, yard positive in today’s setup, fits the winner profile on market position
2ADALIDAnet +7figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), top-2 late speed today, energy in the winning band, yard positive in today’s setup, FormLab watch flag, fits the winner profile on market position − habitually slow away
3DEBRIEFnet +6figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, top-2 speed vs its fields, fits the winner profile on recency
EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD
THE CASE AGAINST THE TOP PICK graded 36% · n=119
Little to argue against on the measured reads — the only question is the price. ESPONA BAY (IRE) is the one to beat it — an edge DEBRIEF lacks: one of the two strongest finishers here.
Balance, not doubt for its own sake — every pick has a case against; a reader should see ours.
Race ShapePACE × FINISH
one confirmed early type — lone-lead possible. Descriptive context — the shape never selects.
What this course & distance favours
Flat, very short straight (~200yd / ~1f) — a sprint home finish. Draw: Modern Poly data broadly FAIR incl. 5f (low NOT clearly advantaged despite the tight early bend). at 5f a HOLD-UP/closer edge is statistically meaningful. Winners’ energy signature: 48.45% spent early (band 47.76–49.47%, 189 measured winners, and the typical winner sits ~3 at halfway, 0.22s off the lead). graded 42% · n=389
WHAT WINS THIS RACE graded 81% · n=89
16 similar races at LINGFIELD PARK, 5.0-7.0f, 3yo handicaps, Class 3-5, May-Sep, 2023-2026 (class band widened for sample)
Winners here typically raced recently (94% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (69% from the first three favourites). 6% won last time out, 50% were placed 2nd-3rd.
Last ran
69% 15-45d
25% within 14d
6% 46-90d
Market
31% 4th+ in the market
31% favourite
25% 2nd favourite
LTO form
50% placed last time
44% unplaced last time
6% won last time
The shape of past winners here · context only, never picks the horse.
Where the pace is drawn · 5 runners · stalls 1–5
12345
Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner.
If the ground changes
Should it turn softer: DEBRIEF is 0/1 on softer ground · ADALIDA is 0/1 on softer ground · ESPONA BAY (IRE) is 0/3 on softer ground. Records only — going aptitude is context, never a downgrade (the market prices it).
RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup
DEBRIEFMID50.1%99.3the 3rd-strongest late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
GOLDWORKMID52.0%98.4held up without the late gear (4th of 5 on late speed), yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
SIR ALFIE (IRE)MID51.8%96.8held up without the late gear (5th of 5 on late speed), yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
ADALIDAMID49.1%101.0the strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
ESPONA BAY (IRE)PROMINENT50.1%100.9the only measured early speed in the race, and spends more than winners here do — and holds on late
The early fight · measured
Who actually gets the front: each confirmed early type’s speed over the opening 2f of its own recent races, compared with the horses it faced that day — plus how sharply it leaves the stalls.
ESPONA BAY (IRE)PROMINENTtypically ~1.6 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · fair break, 0.08s off the field’s best
ESPONA BAY (IRE) is the only confirmed early type — if it breaks level it should get the front to itself · context only — the shape never selects.
The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER
#1DEBRIEFMID
DRAW 1 · OR 79 · Pierre-Louis Jamin / Harry Eustace
MARKET drifting 2.8 → 3.9 · the market rates it a 26% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 4+ / 1−
84.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
Top on the figures, 5pts clear of the next, among the two fastest on speed against its past fields; the 3rd-strongest late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front.
FormLab Figure
84.0 · ranked #1 here · career best 84
Official mark (OR)
79 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
1 win from 3 tries · beats market expectation (4.13)
Days since last run
34
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class · faster than its field on the clock Usually races prominent
Career sheet · last 18 months · 3 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Harry Eustace · 539 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.2 on the exchange
Signature angle: kept to the same class
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Over 5-6f trips13/10612.3%0.976/3318.2%1.64
In Class 4-5 company21/2578.2%0.6514/7618.4%1.51
On turf31/28510.9%0.8413/8315.7%1.21
Coming back after 15 to 45 days18/2038.9%0.6411/6317.5%1.18
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At Lingfield Park1/214.8%0.41/147.1%0.78
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 84 at/around today's trip, clears the ~80.0 demand
The rider
Pierre-Louis Jamin · last 14 days: 1/13· at Lingfield Park: A/E 1.13 (n51)· with this yard: A/E 1.18 (n73)
Sectional profile · last 3 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 77graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields1st of 5
+0.41 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 41.8 raw
Break · 0-20mph2nd of 5
+0.15s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed3rd of 5
99.3%
One-paced late
Stride length2nd of 5
7.55 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
21 Jun 26Brighton5f215yGd/Frm41st——True42.9 +0.06100.1-0.17
15 May 26Newbury7fGood49th——Slow early39.6 +0.79102.9+0.29
13 Oct 25Yarmouth6fGd/Frm44th——True42.8 +0.3795.0+0.33
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
Timed runs 2025-10-13 to 2026-06-21. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Data gaps · never met today's rivals
Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayThe top rating in this field (84.0)Improving fast — last run rated 84, 22pts above his recent average of 61.7Only 3 runs at this distanceSectional speed profile fits here — but his run-style (Mid) is rare among winners at this course & distance
LTO comment
“led, joined after 1f, went on approaching 2f out, drew clear over 1f out, eased close home”
#2ADALIDAMIDDOOR 2 · UNDER-RAISED WINNER
DRAW 4 · OR 73 · Pat Cosgrave / Stuart Williams
MARKET 7.8 · the market rates it a 13% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 2+ / 1−
79.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
2nd on the figures, 5pts off the top, runs the winning energy pattern for the track; habitually slow from the stalls.
FormLab Figure
79.0 · ranked #2 here · career best 79
Official mark (OR)
73 · last won off 70
Record at today's distance
2 wins from 15 tries · below market expectation (0.92)
Days since last run
10
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.3s) · faster than its field on the clock Usually races midfield-closer
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 101.03% (holds late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 15 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Stuart Williams · 973 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.7 on the exchange
Signature angle: kept to the same class, off marks in the 61 to 75 range, with their 3yos, off a judgement-rated last figure
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In fields of <=7 ✦30/16418.3%1.0912/6119.7%1.34
At Lingfield Park11/5918.6%1.133/2412.5%1.15
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Coming back after 8 to 14 days11/1219.1%0.712/365.6%0.53
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 80 at/around today's trip, clears the ~80.0 demand
The rider
Pat Cosgrave · last 14 days: 1/22· at Lingfield Park: A/E 0.66 (n148)· with this yard: A/E 1.74 (n32)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 77graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields4th of 5
-0.00 mph
About the level of its fields · 41.8 raw
Break · 0-20mph5th of 5
+0.43s
Slow away in 3 of 5 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed1st of 5
101.0%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length3rd of 5
7.37 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
Timed runs 2026-04-25 to 2026-07-15. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest.· 2 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has metgraded 56% · n=765
Read through a common rival
vs ESPONA BAY (IRE) (read through BLACK ENDEAVOUR, SOLAR INVINCIBLE, LIFE AFTER LOVE) ≈ -2.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs SIR ALFIE (IRE) (read through AMBISHIO, SCHRODINGER'S CAT, FRONT LINE FURY) ≈ +0.7L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
3lb above his last winning mark (73 today vs 70)Yet to win at this level — a Class 5 winner, upped to Class 4 todayRated #2 in this field (79.0)Improving fast — last run rated 79, 12pts above his recent average of 67.0Race-fit — ran 10 days agoHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceA course winner (1 from 1 here)Sectional speed profile fits here — but his run-style (Mid) is rare among winners at this course & distance
LTO comment
“reared stalls, always behind”
#3ESPONA BAY (IRE)PROMINENT
DRAW 5 · OR 66 · Kieran O'Neill / Scott Dixon
MARKET backed 3.55 → 2.78 · the market rates it a 36% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 5+ / 1−
75.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
3rd on the figures, 9pts off the top, one of the two strongest finishers here; the only measured early speed in the race, and spends more than winners here do — and holds on late.
FormLab Figure
75.0 · ranked #3 here · career best 75
Official mark (OR)
66 · last won off 65
Record at today's distance
1 win from 11 tries · below market expectation (0.59)
Days since last run
8
Sectional clock
Last time: 0.9s slower than par — the result flattered it Usually races front-runner
Run style & finish
Prominent · finishing speed 100.91% (holds late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 9 places on the course scale (WOLVERHAMPTON 32nd → LINGFIELD PARK 23rd) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Field strength · class context
Meets a field 3lb weaker than last time — today's median OR 77 vs 80 last run (WOLVERHAMPTON · 17 Jul 26)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 12 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Scott Dixon · 1057 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 9.1 on the exchange
Signature angle: off marks in the 61 to 75 range, off a judgement-rated last figure
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At Lingfield Park5/5010.0%1.415/2917.2%1.69
In Class 4-5 company ✦20/2687.5%1.0914/12011.7%1.39
In fields of <=77/888.0%0.668/5414.8%1.34
Above their last winning mark ✦21/17811.8%1.1213/9813.3%1.33
Coming back after 8 to 14 days ✦19/2178.8%1.219/1009.0%1.19
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
On turf24/20411.8%1.175/875.7%0.74
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 75 is below the ~80.0 the race demands
The rider
Kieran O'Neill · last 14 days: 1/19· at Lingfield Park: A/E 0.77 (n264)· with this yard: A/E 1.31 (n344)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 77graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields5th of 5
-0.00 mph
About the level of its fields · 40.4 raw
Break · 0-20mph1st of 5
+0.08s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed2nd of 5
100.9%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length5th of 5
7.15 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
Timed runs 2026-01-12 to 2026-07-17. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest.· finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has metgraded 56% · n=765
GOLDWORK · 1 meeting · n/a
30 Apr 25 · 5f · Firm — finished 11th vs 8th, 6.85L behind · stale — 15m ago, not in the read
Read through a common rival
vs ADALIDA (read through BLACK ENDEAVOUR, SOLAR INVINCIBLE, LIFE AFTER LOVE) ≈ +2.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Yet to win at this level — a Class 5 winner, upped to Class 4 todayRated #3 in this field (75.0)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionRace-fit — ran 8 days agoHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Prominent — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“mid-field, headway 3f out, led 2f out, headed final ½f, weakened late on”
#4GOLDWORKMID
DRAW 2 · OR 77 · Oliver Carmichael / Eve Johnson Houghton
MARKET backed 6.2 → 5.4 · the market rates it a 19% chance
Yard suits today’s conditions · 4+ / 0−
60.3FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
4th on the figures, 23.7pts off the top, fits the winner profile on recency; tends to burn early and empty out.
FormLab Figure
60.3 · ranked #4 here · career best 85
Official mark (OR)
77 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
1 win from 10 tries · below market expectation (0.59)
Days since last run
24
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade below par (-0.3s) · faster than its field on the clock Usually races prominent · clock read is off a superseded run
Career sheet · last 18 months · 10 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Eve Johnson Houghton · 1052 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.0 on the exchange
Signature angle: off a TFR-FALLING figure trend
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3) ✦38/36410.4%1.0210/5219.2%1.29
On turf ✦64/57611.1%1.0627/18614.5%1.22
In Class 4-5 company ✦66/49713.3%1.1425/15715.9%1.16
In fields of <=7 ✦29/17916.2%1.0612/5721.1%1.16
Too few runners to read reliably
At Lingfield Park (small sample)2/454.4%0.471/1010.0%0.89
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 87 at/around today's trip, clears the ~80.0 demand
The rider
Oliver Carmichael · last 14 days: 1/7· at Lingfield Park: A/E 1.82 (n10)· with this yard: A/E 1.86 (n63)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 77graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields3rd of 5
+0.23 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 41.2 raw
Break · 0-20mph4th of 5
+0.24s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed4th of 5
98.4%
One-paced late
Stride length1st of 5
7.58 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
Timed runs 2025-09-11 to 2026-07-01. · finishing speed for 2 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has metgraded 56% · n=765
ESPONA BAY (IRE) · 1 meeting · n/a
30 Apr 25 · 5f · Firm — finished 8th vs 11th, 6.85L ahead · stale — 15m ago, not in the read
Read through a common rival
vs SIR ALFIE (IRE) (read through ALBAYDAA, BINTOLA, AMAZING JOURNEY) ≈ +1.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayJockey goes well at this track (1.82x market expectation)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price
LTO comment
“chased leader, ridden over 2f out, lost place over 1f out”
#5SIR ALFIE (IRE)MIDFORMLAB WATCH
DRAW 3 · OR 77 · Thomas Greatrex / Charlie Pike
MARKET backed 19 → 15 · the market rates it a 7% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 3+ / 5−
59.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
5th on the figures, 25pts off the top, proven at the trip; tends to burn early and empty out.
FormLab Figure
59.0 · ranked #5 here · career best 91
Official mark (OR)
77 · last won off 85
Record at today's distance
2 wins from 12 tries · beats market expectation (4.27)
Days since last run
12
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.3s slower than par — the result flattered it Usually races prominent and weakens
drops 12 places on the course scale (WINDSOR 11th → LINGFIELD PARK 23rd) — much easier company than the bare class suggests
Class Reversion Watch[P42] · A PATTERN WE TRACK · NOT A TIP
This horse has shown far more ability in the past than its recent form suggests. Three things line up today: its best-ever rating is well above what it is running to now, the handicapper has dropped it back to a mark it has already proved it can win from, and the sectional clock says the raw speed is still there.
Best ever · vs now
TFR 91 at its peak · running to 59 now
a 32pt gap between what it HAS done and what it is CURRENTLY doing
The handicapper's mark
8lb LOWER than the mark it last WON from (77 today · won off 85)
it has already won a race from a HIGHER mark than today's — the handicapper has given it a real chance
Raw speed
2nd fastest of 5 here
on recorded sectional times against the fields it has met — the engine has not gone
Why it's flagged: in 2024-25, horses fitting this exact pattern won roughly 13% of the time at an average Betfair price near 16.0 — occasional big-priced winners. The 2026 sample is still too small to say whether that holds, so every one is tracked in The Record. This is background, not a selection — only the price decides whether one is ever worth an interest.
Headgear
First-time tongue strap
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 12 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Charlie Pike · 80 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.9 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In Class 4-5 company—4/3710.8%2.1
In fields of <=7—2/1711.8%1.81
On turf—4/488.3%1.24
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At Lingfield Park—0/100.0%0.0
Over 5-6f trips—0/240.0%0.0
Below their last winning mark—0/50.0%0.0
At this time of year (Q3)—0/110.0%0.0
Coming back after 8 to 14 days—1/156.7%0.56
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 91 at/around today's trip, clears the ~80.0 demand
The rider
Thomas Greatrex · last 14 days: 0/6· at Lingfield Park: A/E 1.25 (n27)· with this yard: A/E 0 (n28)
Sectional profile · last 5 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 77graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields2nd of 5
+0.29 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 41.7 raw
Break · 0-20mph3rd of 5
+0.18s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed5th of 5
96.8%
One-paced late
Stride length4th of 5
7.29 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
Timed runs 2026-04-16 to 2026-07-13. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has metgraded 56% · n=765
Read through a common rival
vs GOLDWORK (read through ALBAYDAA, BINTOLA, AMAZING JOURNEY) ≈ -1.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs ADALIDA (read through AMBISHIO, SCHRODINGER'S CAT, FRONT LINE FURY) ≈ -0.7L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
8lb below his last winning mark (77 today vs 85)Proven over the trip (12 tries, beats market expectation at 4.27)Lost roughly 2.0 lengths at the start last timeCut 3lb after losing the start last time — but our checklist rejected that excuse: the cut more likely reflects declining formRace-fit — ran 12 days agoHistorically underestimated by the marketSectional speed profile fits here — but his run-style (Mid) is rare among winners at this course & distance