FORMLAB RACING
THE SCIENCE OF FORM  ·  RACE INTELLIGENCE REPORT
Lingfield Park · 20:30
Class 5 · 5f · Good to Firm · FIELD MEDIAN OR 71
GENERATED 2026-07-25 · 7 RUNNERS PROFILED
BUILT 12:50 · 25 Jul · GOING AT BUILD: Good to Firm
THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYSboth orders below are marked against the actual results every night — how often each one’s top pick won, and how often the winner came from its projected top 3full record →
DATA ORDERtop pick won 29.3%winner in its top 3 60.6%297 settled raceslatest day: won 9/32 · top-3 19/32
FORENSIC READtop pick won 28.6%winner in its top 3 58.9%224 settled races(the Data Order on those same races: 28.1% · 58%)
THE RECORD IN RACES LIKE THISthe same nightly-settled record, kept only to past races sharing this race’s profile
Data OrderForensic Read
races like this onesettledwontop-3wontop-3
Class 56131.1%63.9%29.5%65.6%
sprints (5-7f)11326.5%55.8%28.3%58.4%
handicaps15925.2%59.1%25.8%57.2%
small fields (<=7)13633.8%66.2%35.3%70.6%
The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW
Nothing separates the early types on measured speed — expect a fight for the front. Winners here typically raced recently (88% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (54% from the first three favourites); the typical winner also sits around 2nd at halfway before quickening late, having spent about 49% of its energy before the final two furlongs. On the measured reads, LAZZAR (IRE) leads on 78, 0pts clear of DIOMED DUKE — one of the two strongest finishers here. Little to argue against on the measured reads — the only question is the price. The market sees it differently, making DIOMED DUKE the 43% favourite — a horse our figures rate 2nd.
MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE
The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3
1ST · DATA ORDER DRAW 2
LAZZAR (IRE)
OR 71 · Pat Cosgrave / Charlie Wallis
MARKET drifting 6.8 → 15.5 · the market rates it a 6% chance
78.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans for · 6+ / 1−5lb below his last winning mark (71 today vs 76)Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 5 todayThe top rating in this field (78.0)Met trouble in running recently — better than the bare result
2ND · DATA ORDER DRAW 1
DIOMED DUKE
OR 71 · Olivia Haines / Stuart Williams
MARKET backed 3.5 → 2.22 · the market rates it a 43% chance
78.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans for · 2+ / 1−Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 5 todayDrops in class todayRated #2 in this field (78.0)Jockey goes well at this track (14.51x market expectation)
3RD · DATA ORDER DRAW 3
THE THAMES BOATMAN
OR 75 · Finley Marsh / Richard Hughes
MARKET drifting 3.35 → 6.2 · the market rates it a 15% chance
74.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 3−Proven at this level — a Class 3 winner, racing in Class 5 todayDrops in class todayRated #3 in this field (74.0)Met trouble in running recently — better than the bare result
The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY
1DIOMED DUKEnet +9figure top-2, drops in class, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, backed since morning, top-2 late speed today, runs the dominant winning style here − burns early and empties
2SANDSCREENDELIVERDnet +9drops in class, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, backed since morning, top-2 speed vs its fields, runs the dominant winning style here, proven on the going − burns early and empties
3LAZZAR (IRE)net +6figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), top-2 late speed today, fits the winner profile on market position, fits the winner profile on recency
EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD
THE CASE AGAINST THE TOP PICK graded 36% · n=119
Little to argue against on the measured reads — the only question is the price. DIOMED DUKE is the one to beat it — an edge LAZZAR (IRE) lacks: a yard that scores in today’s conditions.
Balance, not doubt for its own sake — every pick has a case against; a reader should see ours.
Worth A Second Look graded 30% · n=195
These horses rank lower on raw ability figures — but today's race fits a pattern their stable has repeatedly won in. In plain terms, why each deserves another look before you dismiss it.
ZIGGY'S MISSILE (IRE)  FIGURE #7
Robert Cowell's runners in Class 4-5 company win 17.9% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons. drops in class and returns quickly — the two angles our testing shows genuinely tighten a profile.
Race ShapePACE × FINISH
contested early pace likely (3 confirmed early types). Descriptive context — the shape never selects.
What this course & distance favours
Flat, very short straight (~200yd / ~1f) — a sprint home finish. Draw: Modern Poly data broadly FAIR incl. 5f (low NOT clearly advantaged despite the tight early bend). at 5f a HOLD-UP/closer edge is statistically meaningful. Winners’ energy signature: 48.68% spent early (band 48.07–49.36%, 138 measured winners, and the typical winner sits ~2 at halfway, 0.11s off the lead). graded 42% · n=389
WHAT WINS THIS RACE graded 81% · n=89
26 similar races at LINGFIELD PARK, 4.5-5.5f, all-aged handicaps, Class 4-6, Jun-Aug, 2023-2026 (class band widened for sample)
Winners here typically raced recently (88% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (54% from the first three favourites). 19% won last time out, 31% were placed 2nd-3rd.
Age
31% 4yo
27% 6yo+
23% 5yo
Last ran
46% 15-45d
42% within 14d
4% first run
Market
46% 4th+ in the market
31% favourite
15% 3rd favourite
LTO form
46% unplaced last time
31% placed last time
19% won last time
The shape of past winners here · context only, never picks the horse.
Where the pace is drawn · 7 runners · stalls 1–7
1234567
Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner. The early pace is spread across the draw (stalls 1–7).
If the ground changes
Should it turn softer: LAZZAR (IRE) is 0/4 on softer ground · DIOMED DUKE is 0/1 on softer ground · THE THAMES BOATMAN is 0/6 on softer ground. Records only — going aptitude is context, never a downgrade (the market prices it).
RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup
THE THAMES BOATMAN HELD-UP 49.5% 99.2 the 3rd-strongest late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
OUR PLANET (IRE) PROMINENT 50.2% 98.3 a match for the quickest early, and spends more than winners here do — but empties in the final 2f
LAZZAR (IRE) MID 50.1% 99.5 the 2nd-strongest late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
DIOMED DUKE PROMINENT 49.4% 100.5 just behind the quickest early pair — presses, and spends more than winners here do — but holds one pace late
ZIGGY'S MISSILE (IRE) MID 50.9% 98.0 held up without the late gear (7th of 7 on late speed), yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
SANDSCREENDELIVERD MID 50.1% 98.0 held up without the late gear (6th of 7 on late speed), yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
MIRACLEOFTHEANDES (IRE) FRONT 51.0% 99.1 the quickest of today's early types, and spends more than winners here do — but holds one pace late
The early fight · measured
Who actually gets the front: each confirmed early type’s speed over the opening 2f of its own recent races, compared with the horses it faced that day — plus how sharply it leaves the stalls.
MIRACLEOFTHEANDES (IRE)FRONTtypically ~1.8 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · fair break, 0.19s off the field’s best
OUR PLANET (IRE)PROMINENTtypically ~1.7 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · fair break, 0.17s off the field’s best
DIOMED DUKEPROMINENTtypically ~1.2 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · fair break, 0.06s off the field’s best
nothing separates the early types on measured speed — expect a fight for the front · context only — the shape never selects.
The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER
#1 LAZZAR (IRE) MID
DRAW 2 · OR 71 · Pat Cosgrave / Charlie Wallis
MARKET drifting 6.8 → 15.5 · the market rates it a 6% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 6+ / 1−
78.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
Top on the figures, just ahead of the next, one of the two strongest finishers here; the 2nd-strongest late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front.
FormLab Figure
78.0 · ranked #1 here · career best 83
Official mark (OR)
71 · last won off 76
Record at today's distance
4 wins from 22 tries · in line with the market (0.96)
Days since last run
28
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.4s) · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races midfield
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 99.48% (one-paced late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
2ndClass 5 · 5f · rated 784thClass 5 · 6f · rated 719thClass 5 · 5f154y · rated 596thClass 4 · 5f22y · rated 6510thClass 4 · 6f22y · rated 54
Career sheet · last 18 months · 20 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for LAZZAR (IRE)best 83needs 78–812025-04-21 · TFR 76 · 6f · Std · C52025-05-12 · TFR 76 · 6f11y · Gd/Frm · C42025-06-02 · TFR 73 · 5f59y · Good · C52025-06-05 · TFR 75 · 6f · Std · C42025-06-30 · TFR 54 · 5f22y · Gd/Frm · C52025-09-01 · TFR 72 · 6f11y · Gd/Sft · C52025-10-04 · TFR 49 · 6f20y · Slow · C52025-12-03 · TFR 76 · 6f · Std · C52025-12-31 · TFR 78 · 6f · Std · C52026-01-15 · TFR 83 · 6f · Std · C52026-01-23 · TFR 83 · 5f22y · Std · C52026-02-07 · TFR 76 · 6f · Std · C42026-03-04 · TFR 83 · 6f · Slow · C42026-03-26 · TFR 70 · 6f · Std · C42026-04-10 · TFR 74 · 6f20y · Std · C42026-05-04 · TFR 54 · 6f11y · Gd/Frm · C42026-05-21 · TFR 65 · 5f15y · Good · C42026-06-05 · TFR 59 · 5f161y · Good · C52026-06-09 · TFR 71 · 6f · Heavy · C52026-06-27 · TFR 78 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C521 Apr 2527 Jun 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Charlie Wallis · 215 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 8.6 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Below their last winning mark0/160.0%0.01/1010.0%2.98
On turf2/484.2%0.541/128.3%1.89
In fields of <=73/446.8%0.643/1717.6%1.51
At Lingfield Park0/320.0%0.01/119.1%1.37
Over 5-6f trips12/1249.7%1.114/3611.1%1.31
Coming back after 15 to 45 days8/8010.0%1.133/2910.3%1.24
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In Class 4-5 company0/300.0%0.00/200.0%0.0
Too few runners to read reliably
At this time of year (Q3) (small sample)3/437.0%0.760/30.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 87 at/around today's trip, clears the ~78.0 demand
The rider
Pat Cosgrave · last 14 days: 1/22 · at Lingfield Park: A/E 0.66 (n148)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 71 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields5th of 7
+0.05 mph
About the level of its fields · 42.2 raw
Break · 0-20mph2nd of 7
+0.07s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed2nd of 7
99.5%
One-paced late
Stride length7th of 7
7.16 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
27 Jun 26Lingfield4f217yGd/Frm52nd7172Slow early43.3 +0.31104.6+0.40
9 Jun 26Salisbury6fHeavy54th7370.5True37.8 +0.0999.1+0.00
5 Jun 26Bath5f160yGood59th7370.5Fast early41.2 +0.1695.2+0.03
21 May 26Chepstow5f16yGood46th7578.5True42.2 -0.5098.7+0.00
4 May 26Windsor6f12yGd/Frm410th7774True41.5 +0.2296.9+0.00
10 Apr 26Wolverhampton6f20yStd43rd7877True39.6 +0.00102.5-0.02
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.41very slow2f+0.43slow3f+0.33par4f+0.18fast5f+0.17fast
Timed runs 2026-04-10 to 2026-06-27. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
Read through a common rival
vs OUR PLANET (IRE) (read through SO SMART, MANHATTAN MIRAGE, STANLEY SPENCER) ≈ -3.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs ZIGGY'S MISSILE (IRE) (read through EM FOUR, JAX EDGE, MARCHING MAC, ROGUE BULLET) ≈ +2.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs DIOMED DUKE (read through ROGUE BULLET, SOLAR EDGE, NIGHTBIRD) ≈ -1.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs SANDSCREENDELIVERD (read through KISS AND RUN, LEQUINTO, SO SMART, SILVER WRAITH) ≈ +1.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
5lb below his last winning mark (71 today vs 76)Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 5 todayThe top rating in this field (78.0)Improving fast — last run rated 78, 8pts above his recent average of 69.3Lost roughly 1.8 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceA course winner (2 from 5 here)Sectional speed profile fits here — but his run-style (Mid) is rare among winners at this course & distance
LTO comment
“in touch, shaken up over 2f out, kept on”
#2 DIOMED DUKE PROMINENT
DRAW 1 · OR 71 · Olivia Haines / Stuart Williams
MARKET backed 3.5 → 2.22 · the market rates it a 43% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 2+ / 1−
78.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
Level at the head of the figures (2nd), a yard that scores in today’s conditions; tends to burn early and empty out.
FormLab Figure
78.0 · ranked #2 here · career best 82
Official mark (OR)
71 · last won off 70
Record at today's distance
2 wins from 12 tries · beats market expectation (1.15)
Days since last run
8
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class
Usually races front-runner (cooked late) · clock read is off a superseded run
Run style & finish
Prominent · finishing speed 100.49% (one-paced late)
Course scale · class context
drops 19 places on the course scale (NEWMARKET 4th → LINGFIELD PARK 23rd) — much easier company than the bare class suggests
Headgear
Tongue strap · yard 8% with first-time gear (A/E 0.9)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
2ndClass 4 · 5f · rated 785thClass 5 · 5f · rated 745thClass 4 · 5f22y · rated 733rdClass 4 · 5f44y · rated 817thClass 4 · 5f · rated 74
Career sheet · last 18 months · 9 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for DIOMED DUKEbest 82needs 78–812025-05-14 · TFR 63 · 5f42y · Gd/Frm · C52025-06-28 · TFR 82 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C52025-07-25 · TFR 81 · 5f88y · Good · C42025-08-24 · TFR 81 · 5f42y · Good · C32025-09-13 · TFR 74 · 5f · Std · C42025-10-21 · TFR 81 · 5f42y · Good · C42026-06-01 · TFR 73 · 5f22y · Gd/Frm · C42026-06-20 · TFR 74 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C52026-07-17 · TFR 78 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C414 May 2517 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Stuart Williams · 973 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.7 on the exchange
Signature angle: kept to the same class, off marks in the 61 to 75 range, with their 3yos, off a judgement-rated last figure
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In fields of <=7 ✦30/16418.3%1.0912/6119.7%1.34
At Lingfield Park11/5918.6%1.133/2412.5%1.15
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Coming back after 8 to 14 days11/1219.1%0.712/365.6%0.53
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 85 at/around today's trip, clears the ~78.0 demand
The rider
Olivia Haines · last 14 days: 0/1 · at Lingfield Park: A/E 14.51 (n1) · with this yard: A/E 2.22 (n31)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 71 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields6th of 7
+0.04 mph
About the level of its fields · 43.1 raw
Break · 0-20mph1st of 7
+0.06s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed1st of 7
100.5%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length2nd of 7
7.78 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
17 Jul 26Newmarket5fGd/Frm42nd7272—42.3 +0.09103.8-0.09—
20 Jun 26Newmarket5fGd/Frm55th7472Slow early42.9 +0.00104.9+0.06
1 Jun 26Windsor5f21yGd/Frm45th7678True44.4 +0.0599.4+0.15
21 Oct 25Yarmouth5f42yGood43rd7776.5True41.7 -0.2097.6+0.01
13 Sep 25Lingfield5fStd47th7881.5Fast early44.0 +0.19101.2+0.13
24 Aug 25Yarmouth5f42yGood34th7984Fast early43.1 +0.0996.1+0.11
Timed runs 2025-08-24 to 2026-07-17. · finishing speed for 2 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
THE THAMES BOATMAN · 2 meetings≈ 0.4L behind on today's terms · reverses
1 Jun 26 · 5f21y · Gd/Frm — finished 5th vs 4th, 0.75L behind · OR 76 v 77 · race median 78 (today 71)
OUR PLANET (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 12.8L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
21 Oct 25 · 5f42y · Good — finished 3rd vs 10th, 11.75L ahead · OR 77 v 76 · race median 76 (today 71)
THIN [single meeting dominates the net] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 2 rival(s) met (+4.2L adj, 3 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs SANDSCREENDELIVERD (read through GOOD EARTH, SHAVKAT, SOLAR EDGE, AL HUSSAR) ≈ +4.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs LAZZAR (IRE) (read through ROGUE BULLET, SOLAR EDGE, NIGHTBIRD) ≈ +1.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs ZIGGY'S MISSILE (IRE) (read through ROCKING ENDS, GRANDLAD, SOLAR EDGE, ROGUE BULLET) ≈ +0.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 5 todayDrops in class todayRated #2 in this field (78.0)Jockey goes well at this track (14.51x market expectation)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionRace-fit — ran 8 days agoHistorically underestimated by the marketA course winner (1 from 2 here)Runs Prominent — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“led until over 1f out, no extra final 100 yds”
#3 THE THAMES BOATMAN HELD-UP
DRAW 3 · OR 75 · Finley Marsh / Richard Hughes
MARKET drifting 3.35 → 6.2 · the market rates it a 15% chance
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 3−
74.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
3rd on the figures, 4pts off the top, prominent in the betting; the 3rd-strongest late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front.
FormLab Figure
74.0 · ranked #3 here · career best 92
Official mark (OR)
75 · last won off 74
Record at today's distance
6 wins from 43 tries · below market expectation (0.84)
Days since last run
25
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.1s slower than par — the result flattered it · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races midfield-closer
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 99.16% (one-paced late)
Field strength · class context
Meets a field 4lb weaker than last time — today's median OR 71 vs 75.5 last run (SALISBURY · 30 Jun 26)
Headgear
First-time cheekpieces · yard 13% with first-time gear (A/E 1.07)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
2ndClass 4 · 5f · rated 745thClass 4 · 5f66y · rated 504thClass 4 · 5f22y · rated 771stClass 5 · 5f · rated 822ndClass 5 · 5f · rated 82
Career sheet · last 18 months · 22 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for THE THAMES BOATMANbest 92needs 78–812025-02-28 · TFR 71 · 6f · Slow · C22025-04-06 · TFR 46 · 4f213y · Std · C32025-04-20 · TFR 77 · 5f11y · Firm · C42025-04-30 · TFR 76 · 5f216y · Gd/Frm · C52025-06-10 · TFR 80 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C52025-07-01 · TFR 88 · 5f · Slow · C32025-07-08 · TFR 75 · 5f · Good · C42025-07-31 · TFR 64 · 6f20y · Std · C42025-08-08 · TFR 83 · 5f216y · Good · C42025-09-13 · TFR 88 · 5f · Std · C42025-10-16 · TFR 76 · 6f · Slow · C42025-11-04 · TFR 87 · 5f · Std · C42026-01-10 · TFR 86 · 5f · Std · C32026-01-31 · TFR 85 · 5f · Std/Slow · C42026-02-21 · TFR 75 · 5f · Std · C22026-03-05 · TFR 88 · 5f · Std · C42026-04-03 · TFR 81 · 6f · Std · C32026-04-27 · TFR 82 · 5f11y · Gd/Frm · C52026-05-02 · TFR 82 · 5f · Good · C52026-06-01 · TFR 77 · 5f22y · Gd/Frm · C42026-06-21 · TFR 50 · 5f59y · Gd/Frm · C42026-06-30 · TFR 74 · 5f · Good · C428 Feb 2530 Jun 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Richard Hughes · 1061 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.5 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At Lingfield Park ✦14/9315.1%0.843/437.0%0.56
In fields of <=7 ✦26/16415.9%0.7910/7613.2%0.61
Above their last winning mark ✦22/18012.2%0.978/6711.9%0.83
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 92 at/around today's trip, clears the ~78.0 demand
The rider
Finley Marsh · last 14 days: 3/20 · at Lingfield Park: A/E 0.94 (n158) · with this yard: A/E 1.14 (n555)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 71 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields4th of 7
+0.07 mph
About the level of its fields · 43.3 raw
Break · 0-20mph6th of 7
+0.18s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed3rd of 7
99.2%
One-paced late
Stride length1st of 7
7.88 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
30 Jun 26Salisbury5fGood42nd7675.5True40.1 -0.1097.6+0.11
21 Jun 26Brighton5f60yGd/Frm45th7674.5True45.4 +0.3895.3+0.41
1 Jun 26Windsor5f21yGd/Frm44th7778True44.7 +0.34100.5+0.00
2 May 26Goodwood5fGood51st7471True44.4 -0.4198.8+0.22
27 Apr 26Bath5f10yGd/Frm52nd7473True41.9 +0.21100.9+0.16
3 Apr 26Lingfield6fStd39th8384Fast early41.2 -0.03101.9+0.16
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.44fast2f+0.61par3f+0.71par4f+0.68slow5f+0.78very slow
Timed runs 2026-04-03 to 2026-06-30. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
ZIGGY'S MISSILE (IRE) · 2 meetings · n/a
1 Jul 25 · 5f · Slow — finished 2nd vs 7th, 10.45L ahead · OR 82 v 90 · race median 82 (today 71) · stale — 13m ago, not in the read
DIOMED DUKE · 2 meetings≈ 0.4L ahead on today's terms · confirms
1 Jun 26 · 5f21y · Gd/Frm — finished 4th vs 5th, 0.75L ahead · OR 77 v 76 · race median 78 (today 71)
SANDSCREENDELIVERD · 1 meeting≈ 0.8L behind on today's terms · reverses
2 May 26 · 5f · Good — finished 1st vs 2nd, 0.2L ahead · OR 74 v 72 · race median 71 (today 71)
Read through a common rival
vs LAZZAR (IRE) (read through ROGUE BULLET, SO SMART, KISS AND RUN, SOLAR EDGE) ≈ +0.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs OUR PLANET (IRE) (read through MOULIN BOOJ, CRESSIDA WILDES, SO SMART, CLEARPOINT) ≈ +0.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 3 winner, racing in Class 5 todayDrops in class todayRated #3 in this field (74.0)Stable cold this week — 1 wins from 12 runsMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceA course winner (3 from 13 here)
LTO comment
“steadied start, held up, headway over 1f out, kept on, no impression on winner”
#4 SANDSCREENDELIVERD MID
DRAW 4 · OR 70 · Tom Queally / Peter Crate
MARKET backed 6.6 → 5.9 · the market rates it a 16% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 3+ / 4−
70.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
4th on the figures, 8pts off the top, backed since the morning; tends to burn early and empty out.
FormLab Figure
70.0 · ranked #4 here · career best 80
Official mark (OR)
70 · last won off 67
Record at today's distance
1 win from 14 tries · below market expectation (0.69)
Days since last run
19
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade below par (-0.4s)
Usually races prominent and weakens
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 98.05% (one-paced late)
Field strength · class context
Meets a field 8lb weaker than last time — today's median OR 71 vs 79 last run (LINGFIELD PARK · 6 Jul 26)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
3rdClass 4 · 5f · rated 709thClass 4 · 5f · rated 375thClass 5 · 5f22y · rated 682ndClass 5 · 5f · rated 802ndClass 5 · 6f · rated 80
Career sheet · last 18 months · 13 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for SANDSCREENDELIVERDbest 80needs 78–812025-04-28 · TFR 57 · 6f11y · Gd/Frm · C52025-05-20 · TFR 74 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C52025-06-03 · TFR 41 · 5f · Good · C52025-06-07 · TFR 45 · 5f · Gd/Sft · C32025-07-24 · TFR 68 · 5f11y · Gd/Sft · C42025-08-09 · TFR 76 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C52025-09-12 · TFR 34 · 5f11y · Soft · C52026-02-14 · TFR 64 · 5f · Std · C52026-03-25 · TFR 80 · 6f · Std · C52026-05-02 · TFR 80 · 5f · Good · C52026-05-18 · TFR 68 · 5f22y · Good · C52026-06-12 · TFR 37 · 5f11y · Good · C42026-07-06 · TFR 70 · 5f · Std/Slow · C428 Apr 256 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Peter Crate · 65 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 10.0 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In Class 4-5 company2/316.5%0.651/911.1%1.31
On turf2/2010.0%1.111/812.5%1.24
At Lingfield Park3/2611.5%0.831/911.1%1.18
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Coming back after 15 to 45 days3/2015.0%1.260/100.0%0.0
Above their last winning mark0/140.0%0.00/120.0%0.0
In fields of <=71/175.9%0.40/40.0%0.0
Over 5-6f trips4/468.7%0.791/166.2%0.63
Too few runners to read reliably
At this time of year (Q3) (small sample)2/1315.4%1.60/20.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 82 at/around today's trip, clears the ~78.0 demand
The rider
Tom Queally · last 14 days: 0/3 · at Lingfield Park: A/E 0.69 (n131) · with this yard: A/E 1.34 (n27)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 71 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields2nd of 7
+0.14 mph
About the level of its fields · 41.8 raw
Break · 0-20mph4th of 7
+0.15s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed6th of 7
98.0%
One-paced late
Stride length6th of 7
7.46 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
6 Jul 26Lingfield5fStd/Slow43rd7179True42.3 +0.23102.0+0.00
12 Jun 26Sandown Park5f10yGood49th7376True38.4 +0.0093.6+0.00
18 May 26Windsor5f21yGood55th7472.5True42.8 +0.29103.2+0.42
2 May 26Goodwood5fGood52nd7271True45.0 +0.2197.6+0.00
14 Feb 26Lingfield5fStd54th7069Fast early43.2 +0.09101.5+0.26
12 Sep 25Sandown Park5f10ySoft59th7171Fast early38.9 +0.0090.4+0.20
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.29par2f+0.33par3f+0.31par4f+0.54slow5f+0.69slow
Timed runs 2025-09-12 to 2026-07-06. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
THE THAMES BOATMAN · 1 meeting≈ 0.8L ahead on today's terms · confirms
2 May 26 · 5f · Good — finished 2nd vs 1st, 0.2L behind · OR 72 v 74 · race median 71 (today 71)
THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — confirms vs 1 rival(s) met (+0.8L adj, 1 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs DIOMED DUKE (read through GOOD EARTH, SHAVKAT, SOLAR EDGE, AL HUSSAR) ≈ -4.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs OUR PLANET (IRE) (read through SO SMART, NOGO'S DREAM, BLIND BEGGAR) ≈ -4.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs ZIGGY'S MISSILE (IRE) (read through OVER SPICED, FAUSTUS, TAN RAPIDO, DAPPER VALLEY) ≈ +3.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs LAZZAR (IRE) (read through KISS AND RUN, LEQUINTO, SO SMART, SILVER WRAITH) ≈ -1.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
3lb above his last winning mark (70 today vs 67)Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 5 todayDrops in class todayImproving fast — last run rated 70, 11pts above his recent average of 58.3Historically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceA course winner (1 from 6 here)Sectional speed profile fits here — but his run-style (Mid) is rare among winners at this course & distance
LTO comment
“prominent, left behind by winner final 1f”
#5 MIRACLEOFTHEANDES (IRE) FRONT
DRAW 5 · OR 65 · Thomas Greatrex / Warren Greatrex
MARKET drifting 9.2 → 14 · the market rates it a 7% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 5−
70.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
5th on the figures, 8pts off the top, the quickest away of the early types; tends to burn early and empty out.
FormLab Figure
70.0 · ranked #5 here · career best 70
Official mark (OR)
65 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 3 tries
Days since last run
21
Sectional clock
Last time: 0.9s slower than par — the result flattered it
Usually races front-runner (cooked late) · clock read is off a superseded run
Run style & finish
Front-runner · finishing speed 99.14% (one-paced late)
Recent form · last 3 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
2ndClass 4 · 5f · rated 704thClass 4 · 6f · rated 508thClass 4 · 6f · rated 50
Career sheet · last 18 months · 3 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for MIRACLEOFTHEANDES (IRE)needs 78–81best 702025-06-24 · TFR 50 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C42025-07-10 · TFR 50 · 6f · Firm · C42026-07-04 · TFR 70 · 5f9y · Gd/Frm · C424 Jun 254 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Warren Greatrex · 217 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.5 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3)9/939.7%0.811/1010.0%1.27
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Over 5-6f trips5/559.1%0.790/110.0%0.0
Coming back after 15 to 45 days10/9910.1%0.770/230.0%0.0
On turf7/1275.5%0.550/340.0%0.0
In fields of <=72/326.2%0.370/130.0%0.0
In Class 4-5 company10/1277.9%0.742/345.9%0.7
Too few runners to read reliably
At Lingfield Park (small sample)2/922.2%1.280/20.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 65 is below the ~78.0 the race demands
The rider
Thomas Greatrex · last 14 days: 0/6 · at Lingfield Park: A/E 1.25 (n27) · with this yard: A/E 0 (n2)
Sectional profile · last 3 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 71 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields3rd of 7
+0.10 mph
About the level of its fields · 41.3 raw · only 2 runs
Break · 0-20mph7th of 7
+0.19s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed4th of 7
99.1%
One-paced late
Stride length3rd of 7
7.74 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
4 Jul 26Nottingham5fGd/Frm42nd———41.3 +0.00102.8+0.12—
10 Jul 25Newbury6fFirm44th——True40.7 +0.2098.6+0.26
24 Jun 25Newbury6fGd/Frm48th——True—96.0—
Timed runs 2025-06-24 to 2026-07-04. · 1 run(s) have no recorded top speed; 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Data gaps · never met today's rivals
Drops in class todayImproving fast — last run rated 70, 13pts above his recent average of 56.7Only 3 runs at this distanceRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionRuns Front — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“led, headed over 1f out, weakened final ½f”
#6 OUR PLANET (IRE) PROMINENT
DRAW 7 · OR 73 · Joe Leavy / Michael Keady
MARKET 12.5 · the market rates it a 8% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 3−
55 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
6th on the figures, 23pts off the top, among the two fastest on speed against its past fields; its sectional profile is out of date.
FormLab Figure
55 · ranked #6 here · career best 82
Official mark (OR)
73 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
1 win from 9 tries · below market expectation (0.92)
Days since last run
277
Sectional clock
Last time: 2.2s slower than par — the result flattered it · among the slowest in its race
Usually races prominent and weakens
Run style & finish
Prominent · finishing speed 98.31% (one-paced late)
Field strength · class context
Meets a field 6lb weaker than last time — today's median OR 71 vs 76.5 last run (YARMOUTH · 21 Oct 25)
Headgear
Hood and tongue strap
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
10thClass 4 · 5f44y · rated 297thClass 4 · 5f22y · rated 544thClass 4 · 5f22y · rated 826thClass 4 · 5f22y · rated 751stClass 5 · 5f · rated 79
Career sheet · last 18 months · 9 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for OUR PLANET (IRE)best 82needs 78–812025-03-24 · TFR 78 · 5f22y · Std/Slow · C52025-04-26 · TFR 74 · 5f22y · Std · C52025-06-06 · TFR 78 · 5f161y · Gd/Frm · C42025-06-30 · TFR 74 · 6f20y · Slow · C42025-07-23 · TFR 79 · 5f · Good · C52025-08-07 · TFR 75 · 5f15y · Good · C42025-08-14 · TFR 82 · 5f22y · Firm · C42025-08-30 · TFR 54 · 5f15y · Firm · C42025-10-21 · TFR 29 · 5f42y · Good · C424 Mar 2521 Oct 25
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads. · last rated run 277 days ago
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Michael Keady · 359 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 7.0 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Over 5-6f trips11/1427.7%0.944/439.3%1.18
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At this time of year (Q3)4/834.8%0.810/130.0%0.0
On turf8/1107.3%1.022/375.4%0.83
In Class 4-5 company9/1237.3%0.912/345.9%0.85
Too few runners to read reliably
Coming back after 180 days+ (small sample)1/1010.0%1.690/20.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 82 at/around today's trip, clears the ~78.0 demand
The rider
Joe Leavy · last 14 days: 2/26 · at Lingfield Park: A/E 1.4 (n139)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 71 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields1st of 7
+0.23 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 42.4 raw
Break · 0-20mph5th of 7
+0.17s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed5th of 7
98.3%
One-paced late
Stride length5th of 7
7.48 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
21 Oct 25Yarmouth5f42yGood410th7676.5True41.7 -0.2094.0+0.00
30 Aug 25Chester5f15yFirm47th7875True42.6 +0.5298.9+0.12
14 Aug 25Windsor5f21yFirm44th8082Fast early44.7 +0.2099.1+0.42
23 Jul 25Leicester5fGood51st——True42.4 +0.6199.0-0.05
30 Jun 25Wolverhampton6f20ySlow45th8079.5True38.9 +0.06101.7+0.21
6 Jun 25Bath5f160yGd/Frm45th8177True40.9 +0.2197.2+0.33
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.14very fast2f+0.05par3f+0.34slow4f+1.24very slow5f+2.59very slow
Timed runs 2025-06-06 to 2025-10-21 · last timed run 277 days ago — the profile is out of date. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
DIOMED DUKE · 1 meeting≈ 12.8L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
21 Oct 25 · 5f42y · Good — finished 10th vs 3rd, 11.75L behind · OR 76 v 77 · race median 76 (today 71)
THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — REVERSES strongly vs 1 rival(s) met (-12.8L adj, 1 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs SANDSCREENDELIVERD (read through SO SMART, NOGO'S DREAM, BLIND BEGGAR) ≈ +4.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs LAZZAR (IRE) (read through SO SMART, MANHATTAN MIRAGE, STANLEY SPENCER) ≈ +3.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs ZIGGY'S MISSILE (IRE) (read through NOGO'S DREAM, ROCKING ENDS, ALL WAYS GLAMOROUS, BLIND BEGGAR) ≈ +1.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs THE THAMES BOATMAN (read through MOULIN BOOJ, CRESSIDA WILDES, SO SMART, CLEARPOINT) ≈ -0.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 5 todayDrops in class todayJockey goes well at this track (1.4x market expectation)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultReturns from 277 days offHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price
LTO comment
“prominent, ridden when hampered over 2f out, weakened quickly”
#7 ZIGGY'S MISSILE (IRE) MID
DRAW 6 · OR 70 · Pierre-Louis Jamin / Robert Cowell
MARKET drifting 18 → 20 · the market rates it a 5% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 5+ / 1−
41 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
7th on the figures, 37pts off the top, proven at the trip; tends to burn early and empty out.
FormLab Figure
41 · ranked #7 here · career best 97
Official mark (OR)
70 · last won off 86
Record at today's distance
6 wins from 24 tries · beats market expectation (2.01)
Days since last run
19
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.9s slower than par — the result flattered it · among the slowest in its race
Usually races midfield and fades
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 98.04% (one-paced late)
Field strength · class context
Meets a field 7lb weaker than last time — today's median OR 71 vs 78 last run (LINGFIELD PARK · 6 Jul 26)
Headgear
Cheekpieces
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
9thClass 4 · 5f · rated 265thClass 4 · 5f · rated 294thClass 4 · 5f22y · rated 685thClass 4 · 5f · rated 635thClass 4 · 5f · rated 77
Career sheet · last 18 months · 15 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for ZIGGY'S MISSILE (IRE)best 97needs 78–812025-03-01 · TFR 88 · 4f213y · Std · C42025-04-09 · TFR 93 · 5f9y · Good · C42025-04-27 · TFR 94 · 4f213y · Slow · C42025-05-19 · TFR 43 · 5f22y · Gd/Frm · C22025-06-07 · TFR 55 · 5f · Gd/Sft · C22025-06-19 · TFR 89 · 5f · Slow · C42025-07-01 · TFR 48 · 5f · Slow · C32025-07-29 · TFR 66 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C22025-08-09 · TFR 58 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C32025-08-23 · TFR 54 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C32025-09-23 · TFR 77 · 4f213y · Std · C42025-10-24 · TFR 63 · 4f213y · Std · C42026-04-17 · TFR 68 · 5f22y · Slow · C42026-05-03 · TFR 29 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C42026-07-06 · TFR 26 · 5f · Std/Slow · C41 Mar 256 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Robert Cowell · 529 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.8 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In fields of <=7 ✦25/13218.9%1.067/3221.9%1.38
Coming back after 15 to 45 days19/2178.8%0.8311/7015.7%1.27
Below their last winning mark5/2718.5%1.314/2020.0%1.25
In Class 4-5 company ✦31/20415.2%1.27/3917.9%1.23
On turf22/2289.6%1.09/6913.0%1.18
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At this time of year (Q3)11/1517.3%0.781/137.7%0.51
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 97 at/around today's trip, clears the ~78.0 demand
The rider
Pierre-Louis Jamin · last 14 days: 1/13 · at Lingfield Park: A/E 1.13 (n51) · with this yard: A/E 0 (n1)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 71 graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields7th of 7
-0.42 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 42.1 raw
Break · 0-20mph3rd of 7
+0.08s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed7th of 7
98.0%
One-paced late
Stride length4th of 7
7.65 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
6 Jul 26Lingfield5fStd/Slow49th7578Fast early42.8 -0.4398.1+0.21
3 May 26Salisbury5fGd/Frm45th7878True40.8 -0.1694.7+0.00
17 Apr 26Wolverhampton5f21ySlow44th8081.5True40.1 -0.63102.8+0.00
24 Oct 25Southwell4f214yStd45th8278True43.1 -0.0296.2+0.07
23 Sep 25Southwell4f214yStd45th8480True42.4 -0.3198.4+0.06
23 Aug 25Goodwood5fGd/Frm38th8688True43.4 -0.9897.9+0.13
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.58par2f+0.92par3f+0.98par4f+1.06very slow5f+2.10very slow
Timed runs 2025-08-23 to 2026-07-06. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765
THE THAMES BOATMAN · 2 meetings · n/a
1 Jul 25 · 5f · Slow — finished 7th vs 2nd, 10.45L behind · OR 90 v 82 · race median 82 (today 71) · stale — 13m ago, not in the read
Read through a common rival
vs SANDSCREENDELIVERD (read through OVER SPICED, FAUSTUS, TAN RAPIDO, DAPPER VALLEY) ≈ -3.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs LAZZAR (IRE) (read through EM FOUR, JAX EDGE, MARCHING MAC, ROGUE BULLET) ≈ -2.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs OUR PLANET (IRE) (read through NOGO'S DREAM, ROCKING ENDS, ALL WAYS GLAMOROUS, BLIND BEGGAR) ≈ -1.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs DIOMED DUKE (read through ROCKING ENDS, GRANDLAD, SOLAR EDGE, ROGUE BULLET) ≈ -0.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
16lb below his last winning mark (70 today vs 86)Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 5 todayDrops in class todayProven over the trip (24 tries, beats market expectation at 2.01)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the market
LTO comment
“off pace, never dangerous”