FORMLAB RACING
THE SCIENCE OF FORM  ·  RACE INTELLIGENCE REPORT
Salisbury · 18:15
Class 4 · 6f · Good to Firm (Firm in places)
GENERATED 2026-07-25 · 4 RUNNERS PROFILED
BUILT 12:51 · 25 Jul · GOING AT BUILD: Good to Firm (Firm in places)
THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYSboth orders below are marked against the actual results every night — how often each one’s top pick won, and how often the winner came from its projected top 3full record →
DATA ORDERtop pick won 29.3%winner in its top 3 60.6%297 settled raceslatest day: won 9/32 · top-3 19/32
FORENSIC READtop pick won 28.6%winner in its top 3 58.9%224 settled races(the Data Order on those same races: 28.1% · 58%)
THE RECORD IN RACES LIKE THISthe same nightly-settled record, kept only to past races sharing this race’s profile
Data OrderForensic Read
races like this onesettledwontop-3wontop-3
Class 47225%58.3%29.2%62.5%
sprints (5-7f)11326.5%55.8%28.3%58.4%
non-handicaps6535.4%55.4%35.4%63.1%
small fields (<=7)13633.8%66.2%35.3%70.6%
The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW
No confirmed early pace on the book, so this one may turn tactical. Winners here typically raced recently (48% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (70% from the first three favourites); the typical winner also sits around 2nd at halfway before quickening late, having spent about 50% of its energy before the final two furlongs. On the measured reads, SIERRA BELLE leads on 80, 11pts clear of PRIDE OF TOLEDO (IRE) — dropping in class. Little to argue against on the measured reads — the only question is the price. The market agrees — it makes SIERRA BELLE the 68% favourite.
MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE
The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3
1ST · DATA ORDER DRAW 2
SIERRA BELLE
OR · Hector Crouch / Ralph Beckett
MARKET 1.44 · the market rates it a 68% chance
80.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans for · 2+ / 1−Drops in class todayThe top rating in this field (80.0)Met trouble in running recently — better than the bare result
2ND · DATA ORDER DRAW 3
PRIDE OF TOLEDO (IRE)
OR · Callum Rodriguez / Clive Cox
MARKET 4 · the market rates it a 25% chance
69.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD
Yard suits today’s conditions · 6+ / 0−Rated #2 in this field (69.0)Stable in form this week — 2 wins from 11 runs
3RD · DATA ORDER DRAW 1
HEMUSTBEANANGEL (IRE)
OR · Owen Lewis / Roger Teal
MARKET drifting 18 → 30 · the market rates it a 3% chance
55.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 6−Rated #3 in this field (55.0)
The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY
1SIERRA BELLEnet +9figure top-2, drops in class, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, yard hot, FormLab watch flag, fits the winner profile on market position
2PRIDE OF TOLEDO (IRE)net +4figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), market top-3, fits the winner profile on recency
3DEBUTANTEnet +2market top-3, yard hot
EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD
THE CASE AGAINST THE TOP PICK graded 36% · n=119
Little to argue against on the measured reads — the only question is the price. PRIDE OF TOLEDO (IRE) sits closest on the counted reads (net +4).
Balance, not doubt for its own sake — every pick has a case against; a reader should see ours.
Race ShapePACE × FINISH
even/unclear early shape (no confirmed early types). Descriptive context — the shape never selects.
What this course & distance favours
Won by front-runners 45% · prominent racers 30% (47 past C&D winners · won up with the pace). Long, punishing uphill finish favouring strong gallopers/stayers. Winners’ energy signature: 49.84% spent early (band 49.17–50.58%, 63 measured winners, and the typical winner sits ~2 at halfway, 0.21s off the lead). graded 42% · n=389 No confirmed early type — the likely leader can dictate, a real edge at a track this front/prominent-biased.
WHAT WINS THIS RACE graded 81% · n=89
26 similar races at SALISBURY, 5.5-6.5f, 2yo non-handicaps, Class 4, Jun-Aug, 2023-2026
Winners here typically raced recently (48% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (70% from the first three favourites). 7% won last time out, 22% were placed 2nd-3rd.
Last ran
37% first run
37% 15-45d
15% 46-90d
Market
44% favourite
30% 4th+ in the market
15% 2nd favourite
LTO form
37% first run
33% unplaced last time
22% placed last time
The shape of past winners here · context only, never picks the horse.
Where the pace is drawn · 4 runners · stalls 1–4
1234
Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner.
If the ground changes
Should it turn softer: SIERRA BELLE is 0/1 on softer ground · PRIDE OF TOLEDO (IRE) is unraced on softer ground · HEMUSTBEANANGEL (IRE) is unraced on softer ground. Records only — going aptitude is context, never a downgrade (the market prices it).
RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup
HEMUSTBEANANGEL (IRE) HELD-UP 48.8% 102.4 the 3rd-strongest late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it
PRIDE OF TOLEDO (IRE) — — 105.1 -
DEBUTANTE — — — -
SIERRA BELLE HELD-UP 47.7% 106.4 the strongest late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it
The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER
#1 SIERRA BELLE HELD-UP FORMLAB WATCH
DRAW 2 · OR · Hector Crouch / Ralph Beckett
MARKET 1.44 · the market rates it a 68% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 2+ / 1−
80.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
Top on the figures, 11pts clear of the next, dropping in class; the strongest late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it.
FormLab Figure
80.0 · ranked #1 here · career best 80
Official mark (OR)
unrated · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 1 tries
Days since last run
15
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 106.43% (strong late)
Course scale · class context
drops 18 places on the course scale (NEWMARKET 4th → SALISBURY 22nd) — much easier company than the bare class suggests
Recent form · last 1 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
2ndClass 3 · 6f · rated 80
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Ralph Beckett · 1396 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 3.5 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Over 5-6f trips29/18615.6%0.8517/7024.3%1.26
At this time of year (Q3)90/46719.3%0.9819/7425.7%1.2
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At Salisbury ✦13/6420.3%0.965/2420.8%0.81
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 80 at/around today's trip, clears the ~69.0 demand
The rider
Hector Crouch · last 14 days: 3/27 · at Salisbury: A/E 1.05 (n65) · with this yard: A/E 1.09 (n500)
Sectional profile · last 1 timed run · ranks are against today's field graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields2nd of 3
+0.27 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 41.3 raw · only 1 run
Break · 0-20mph1st of 1
+0.74s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed1st of 3
106.4%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length1st of 3
7.63 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
10 Jul 26Newmarket6fGd/Frm32nd——Slow early41.3 +0.27106.4+0.74
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.51very slow2f+0.60very slow3f+0.58slow4f+0.48par5f+0.20very fast6f+0.04very fast
Timed runs 2026-07-10 to 2026-07-10. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Data gaps · sectional read off only 1 timed run · unrated (no official mark) · never met today's rivals · thin Timeform history (1 figure)
Drops in class todayThe top rating in this field (80.0)Only 1 run at this distanceMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare result
LTO comment
“slowly away, held up, effort 2f out, hampered 1f out, took second final ½f, ran on”
#2 PRIDE OF TOLEDO (IRE)
DRAW 3 · OR · Callum Rodriguez / Clive Cox
MARKET 4 · the market rates it a 25% chance
Yard suits today’s conditions · 6+ / 0−
69.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
2nd on the figures, 11pts off the top, fit and race-ready; the price is the only question.
FormLab Figure
69.0 · ranked #2 here · career best 69
Official mark (OR)
unrated · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 1 tries
Days since last run
23
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
— · finishing speed 105.1% (strong late)
Course scale · class context
drops 15 places on the course scale (NEWBURY 7th → SALISBURY 22nd) — much easier company than the bare class suggests
Recent form · last 1 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
5thClass 4 · 6f · rated 69
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Clive Cox · 808 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.7 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In fields of <=721/12516.8%0.7214/4233.3%1.92
Coming back after 15 to 45 days44/32813.4%0.9616/9017.8%1.41
At this time of year (Q3)38/25514.9%1.166/3915.4%1.36
Over 5-6f trips ✦59/39415.0%1.0222/12917.1%1.3
In Class 4-5 company57/36915.4%1.016/9616.7%1.21
On turf ✦67/45814.6%1.1420/13814.5%1.15
Too few runners to read reliably
At Salisbury (small sample)9/4221.4%1.111/156.7%0.36
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 69 at/around today's trip, clears the ~69.0 demand
The rider
Callum Rodriguez · last 14 days: 1/20 · with this yard: A/E 0.82 (n9)
Sectional profile · last 1 timed run · ranks are against today's field graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields1st of 3
+0.62 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 40.6 raw · only 1 run
Break · 0-20mph
—
No 0-20mph split recorded
Finish · closing speed2nd of 3
105.1%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length2nd of 3
7.39 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
2 Jul 26Newbury6fGd/Frm45th———40.6 +0.62105.1——
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f—slow2f—slow3f—par4f—par5f—par6f—par
Timed runs 2026-07-02 to 2026-07-02. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Data gaps · sectional read off only 1 timed run · unrated (no official mark) · never met today's rivals · thin Timeform history (1 figure)
Rated #2 in this field (69.0)Only 1 run at this distanceStable in form this week — 2 wins from 11 runsRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina question
LTO comment
“mid-division, challenged over 1f out, ran green final 1f, weakened final 100 yds”
#3 HEMUSTBEANANGEL (IRE) HELD-UP
DRAW 1 · OR · 9-7 · −5lb claim = 9-2 carried · Owen Lewis / Roger Teal
MARKET drifting 18 → 30 · the market rates it a 3% chance
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 6−
55.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
3rd on the figures, 25pts off the top, fit and race-ready; a yard out of form.
FormLab Figure
55.0 · ranked #3 here · career best 55
Official mark (OR)
unrated · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 1 tries
Days since last run
26
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 102.4% (holds late)
Course scale · class context
drops 11 places on the course scale (WINDSOR 11th → SALISBURY 22nd) — much easier company than the bare class suggests
Recent form · last 1 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
9thClass 4 · 6f22y · rated 55
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Roger Teal · 481 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.8 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At this time of year (Q3)11/1179.4%0.850/160.0%0.0
In fields of <=78/7211.1%0.81/313.2%0.26
Coming back after 15 to 45 days ✦20/2079.7%0.823/694.3%0.42
On turf ✦19/1939.8%0.895/707.1%0.65
In Class 4-5 company ✦17/2078.2%0.825/667.6%0.71
Over 5-6f trips17/11814.4%1.43/417.3%0.74
Too few runners to read reliably
At Salisbury (small sample)3/1421.4%1.470/80.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 55 is below the ~69.0 the race demands
The rider
Owen Lewis · last 14 days: 0/7 · at Salisbury: A/E 0 (n2) · with this yard: A/E 1.16 (n21)
Sectional profile · last 1 timed run · ranks are against today's field graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields3rd of 3
+0.02 mph
About the level of its fields · 40.7 raw · only 1 run
Break · 0-20mph
—
No 0-20mph split recorded
Finish · closing speed3rd of 3
102.4%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length3rd of 3
7.37 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
29 Jun 26Windsor6f12yGd/Frm49th——True40.7 +0.02102.4—
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.67slow2f+0.78slow3f+0.60slow4f+0.62par5f+0.87par6f+1.27par
Timed runs 2026-06-29 to 2026-06-29. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Data gaps · sectional read off only 1 timed run · unrated (no official mark) · never met today's rivals · thin Timeform history (1 figure)
Rated #3 in this field (55.0)Only 1 run at this distance
#4 DEBUTANTE
DRAW 4 · OR · George Downing / Ed Walker
MARKET 25 · the market rates it a 4% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 2−
— FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
A yard in form; the price is the only question.
FormLab Figure
no rating yet (no rated runs on record)
Official mark (OR)
unrated · no win on record
Record at today's distance
untried at this distance
Days since last run
first run on record
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
— · no timed finishing data
Recent form · last 0 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Ed Walker · 1119 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.2 on the exchange
Signature angle: stepping up in class, at 8-16 odds, at this time of year (Q2), on Good to Firm ground
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
On turf ✦89/59415.0%1.0340/22118.1%1.22
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Over 5-6f trips ✦31/22114.0%0.9210/9410.6%0.71
In fields of <=744/20421.6%1.0316/8319.3%0.83
Too few runners to read reliably
At Salisbury (small sample)5/3414.7%0.953/1225.0%1.69
Can it do what today needs? no figure on record — unproven
The rider
George Downing · last 14 days: 0/8 · at Salisbury: A/E 0.65 (n52) · with this yard: A/E 0.76 (n183)
Sectional profile
No timed runs on record — this horse has no sectional history to read.
Data gaps · no timed sectional runs on record · unrated (no official mark) · never met today's rivals · thin Timeform history (0 figures) · no FormLab figure