BUILT 12:51 · 25 Jul · GOING AT BUILD: Good to Firm (Firm in places)
THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYSboth orders below are marked against the actual results every night — how often each one’s top pick won, and how often the winner came from its projected top 3full record →
DATA ORDERtop pick won 29.3%winner in its top 3 60.6%297 settled raceslatest day: won 9/32 · top-3 19/32
FORENSIC READtop pick won 28.6%winner in its top 3 58.9%224 settled races(the Data Order on those same races: 28.1% · 58%)
THE RECORD IN RACES LIKE THISthe same nightly-settled record, kept only to past races sharing this race’s profile
Data Order
Forensic Read
races like this one
settled
won
top-3
won
top-3
Class 4
72
25%
58.3%
29.2%
62.5%
miles (7-9f)
49
22.4%
49%
22.4%
42.9%
non-handicaps
65
35.4%
55.4%
35.4%
63.1%
small fields (<=7)
136
33.8%
66.2%
35.3%
70.6%
The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW
KINETIC IMPACT is the only confirmed early type — if it breaks level it should get the front to itself. Winners here spend about 49% of their energy before the final two furlongs and quicken late. On the measured reads, KINETIC IMPACT leads on 76.3, 1.3pts clear of RAGGAAS — dropping in class. Little to argue against on the measured reads — the only question is the price. The shape danger is RAGGAAS — the strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it. The market sees it differently, making MATINS the 46% favourite — a horse our figures rate lower.
MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE
The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3
1ST · DATA ORDERDRAW 5
KINETIC IMPACT
OR · Callum Rodriguez / Charles Hills
MARKET 3.15 · the market rates it a 32% chance
76.3FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD
Yard mixed · 2+ / 2−Drops in class todayRated #2 in this field (76.3)
2ND · DATA ORDERDRAW 2
RAGGAAS
OR · Ross Coakley / Simon & Ed Crisford
MARKET 4.7 · the market rates it a 21% chance
75.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans for · 3+ / 2−Drops in class todayRated #3 in this field (75.0)Jockey goes well at this track (1.67x market expectation)Runs Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
3RD · DATA ORDERDRAW 3
MATINS
OR · Hector Crouch / William Haggas
MARKET backed 2.68 → 2.18 · the market rates it a 46% chance
—FORMLAB FIGURE · # OF FIELD
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 4−
The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY
1KINETIC IMPACTnet +5figure top-2, drops in class, race-fit (ran <=45d), market top-3, energy in the winning band
2RAGGAASnet +4drops in class, race-fit (ran <=45d), market top-3, energy in the winning band
3MATINSnet +2market top-3, backed since morning
EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD
THE CASE AGAINST THE TOP PICK graded 36% · n=119
Little to argue against on the measured reads — the only question is the price. RAGGAAS sits closest on the counted reads (net +4).
Balance, not doubt for its own sake — every pick has a case against; a reader should see ours.
Race ShapePACE × FINISH
one confirmed early type — lone-lead possible. Descriptive context — the shape never selects.
What this course & distance favours
Won by hold-up closers 30% · front-runners 30% (23 past C&D winners · no strong run-style bias). Long, punishing uphill finish favouring strong gallopers/stayers. Winners’ energy signature: 49.13% spent early (band 48.14–50.39%, 28 measured winners, and the typical winner sits ~3.5 at halfway, 0.35s off the lead). graded 42% · n=389
Where the pace is drawn · 4 runners · stalls 1–5
12345
Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner.
If the ground changes
Should it turn softer: KINETIC IMPACT is unraced on softer ground · RAGGAAS is unraced on softer ground · MATINS is unraced on softer ground. Records only — going aptitude is context, never a downgrade (the market prices it).
RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup
KINETIC IMPACTPROMINENT49.2%105.9the only measured early speed in the race, at the tempo that wins here — and finds plenty late
MATINS———-
RAGGAASMID48.6%107.3the strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
GARTH SPIRITHELD-UP52.2%91.9the 3rd-strongest late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
The early fight · measured
Who actually gets the front: each confirmed early type’s speed over the opening 2f of its own recent races, compared with the horses it faced that day — plus how sharply it leaves the stalls.
KINETIC IMPACTPROMINENTtypically ~1.7 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · a beat slow from the stalls (0.34s off the best)
KINETIC IMPACT is the only confirmed early type — if it breaks level it should get the front to itself · context only — the shape never selects.
The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER
#1KINETIC IMPACTPROMINENT
DRAW 5 · OR · Callum Rodriguez / Charles Hills
MARKET 3.15 · the market rates it a 32% chance
Yard mixed · 2+ / 2−
76.3FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
Level at the head of the figures (2nd), dropping in class; the only measured early speed in the race, at the tempo that wins here — and finds plenty late.
FormLab Figure
76.3 · ranked #2 here · career best 78
Official mark (OR)
unrated · no win on record
Record at today's distance
untried at this distance
Days since last run
18
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
Prominent · finishing speed 105.89% (strong late)
Recent form · last 3 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 3 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Charles Hills · 743 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.4 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In Class 4-5 company32/3509.1%0.714/8616.3%1.39
Coming back after 15 to 45 days34/29611.5%0.9210/7114.1%1.3
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In fields of <=722/12218.0%1.035/4610.9%0.73
On turf ✦41/4319.5%0.98/1037.8%0.78
Too few runners to read reliably
At Salisbury (small sample)3/2114.3%1.230/20.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 80 at/around today's trip, clears the ~77 demand
The rider
Callum Rodriguez · last 14 days: 1/20· with this yard: A/E 3.51 (n4)
Sectional profile · last 3 timed runs · ranks are against today's fieldgraded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields2nd of 3
+0.19 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 38.6 raw
Break · 0-20mph2nd of 2
+0.34s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed2nd of 3
105.9%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length3rd of 3
6.68 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
Timed runs 2026-05-29 to 2026-07-07. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Data gaps · unrated (no official mark) · never met today's rivals
Drops in class todayRated #2 in this field (76.3)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina question
LTO comment
“chased leaders, wandered from 2f out, no extra final 1f”
#2RAGGAASMID
DRAW 2 · OR · Ross Coakley / Simon & Ed Crisford
MARKET 4.7 · the market rates it a 21% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 3+ / 2−
75.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
3rd on the figures, 1.3pts off the top, dropping in class; the strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it.
FormLab Figure
75.0 · ranked #3 here · career best 75
Official mark (OR)
unrated · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 1 tries
Days since last run
36
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 107.31% (strong late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 9 places on the course scale (REDCAR 31st → SALISBURY 22nd) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Career sheet · last 18 months · 2 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Simon & Ed Crisford · 869 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 3.9 on the exchange
Signature angle: stepping up in class
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3)59/29120.3%1.167/3321.2%1.4
Coming back after 15 to 45 days ✦63/33318.9%1.0814/8516.5%1.19
In fields of <=742/18123.2%0.8912/5820.7%1.17
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Over 7-8f trips ✦45/29615.2%0.947/7010.0%0.65
In Class 4-5 company ✦87/44619.5%0.9913/9913.1%0.78
Too few runners to read reliably
At Salisbury (small sample)1/812.5%0.74—
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 79 at/around today's trip, clears the ~77 demand
The rider
Ross Coakley · last 14 days: 0/4· at Salisbury: A/E 1.67 (n33)· with this yard: A/E 1.09 (n52)
Sectional profile · last 2 timed runs · ranks are against today's fieldgraded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields3rd of 3
-0.02 mph
About the level of its fields · 38.5 raw · only 2 runs
Break · 0-20mph1st of 2
+0.21s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed1st of 3
107.3%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length1st of 3
6.91 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
19 Jun 26Redcar1m2fGood34th——True40.1 +0.20112.5+0.03
1 Jun 26Wolverhampton1m142yStd44th——True38.5 -0.24102.2+0.39
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.16slow2f+0.20slow3f+0.20very slow4f+0.41very slow5f+0.86slow6f+0.66par7f+0.74par1m+0.62fast1m 1f+0.83very fast1m 2f+0.94very fast
Timed runs 2026-06-01 to 2026-06-19. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Data gaps · sectional read off only 2 timed runs · unrated (no official mark) · never met today's rivals · thin Timeform history (2 figures)
Drops in class todayRated #3 in this field (75.0)Only 1 run at this distanceJockey goes well at this track (1.67x market expectation)Runs Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“chased leaders, outpaced 3f out, kept on again”
#3MATINS
DRAW 3 · OR · Hector Crouch / William Haggas
MARKET backed 2.68 → 2.18 · the market rates it a 46% chance
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 4−
—FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
Backed since the morning; the price is the only question.
FormLab Figure
no rating yet (no rated runs on record)
Official mark (OR)
unrated · no win on record
Record at today's distance
untried at this distance
Days since last run
first run on record
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
— · no timed finishing data
Headgear
Tongue strap · yard 20% with first-time gear (A/E 1.32)
Recent form · last 0 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
William Haggas · 1593 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 3.5 on the exchange
Signature angle: jockey_named Cieren Fallon
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At this time of year (Q3)134/54924.4%1.127/6610.6%0.48
Over 7-8f trips104/51320.3%1.023/15315.0%0.72
In fields of <=7 ✦94/35226.7%0.9125/11521.7%0.78
In Class 4-5 company164/66824.6%1.0327/14518.6%0.83
Too few runners to read reliably
At Salisbury (small sample)4/2119.0%0.734/944.4%1.82
Can it do what today needs? no figure on record — unproven
The rider
Hector Crouch · last 14 days: 3/27· at Salisbury: A/E 1.05 (n65)· with this yard: A/E 2.77 (n2)
Sectional profile
No timed runs on record — this horse has no sectional history to read.
Data gaps · no timed sectional runs on record · unrated (no official mark) · never met today's rivals · thin Timeform history (0 figures) · no FormLab figure
Stable cold this week — 1 wins from 17 runs
#4GARTH SPIRITHELD-UP
DRAW 1 · OR · William Carver / Robbie Llewellyn
MARKET 120 · the market rates it a 1% chance
—FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
Runs the dominant winning style here; tends to burn early and empty out.
FormLab Figure
no rating yet (no rated runs on record)
Official mark (OR)
unrated · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 1 tries
Days since last run
18
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 91.91% (one-paced late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 10 places on the course scale (WOLVERHAMPTON 32nd → SALISBURY 22nd) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Recent form · last 1 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
9thClass 4 · 7f44y · rated —
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Robbie Llewellyn
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Can it do what today needs? no figure on record — unproven
The rider
William Carver · last 14 days: 2/6· at Salisbury: A/E 0.92 (n17)· with this yard: A/E 0 (n1)
Sectional profile · last 1 timed run · ranks are against today's fieldgraded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields1st of 3
+0.35 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 39.7 raw · only 1 run
Break · 0-20mph
—
No 0-20mph split recorded
Finish · closing speed3rd of 3
91.9%
One-paced late
Stride length2nd of 3
6.70 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
Timed runs 2026-07-07 to 2026-07-07. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Data gaps · sectional read off only 1 timed run · unrated (no official mark) · never met today's rivals · thin Timeform history (0 figures) · no FormLab figure