Class 5 · 6f · Good to Firm (Firm in places) · FIELD MEDIAN OR 63
GENERATED 2026-07-25 · 10 RUNNERS PROFILED
BUILT 12:51 · 25 Jul · GOING AT BUILD: Good to Firm (Firm in places)
THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYSboth orders below are marked against the actual results every night — how often each one’s top pick won, and how often the winner came from its projected top 3full record →
DATA ORDERtop pick won 29.3%winner in its top 3 60.6%297 settled raceslatest day: won 9/32 · top-3 19/32
FORENSIC READtop pick won 28.6%winner in its top 3 58.9%224 settled races(the Data Order on those same races: 28.1% · 58%)
THE RECORD IN RACES LIKE THISthe same nightly-settled record, kept only to past races sharing this race’s profile
Data Order
Forensic Read
races like this one
settled
won
top-3
won
top-3
Class 5
61
31.1%
63.9%
29.5%
65.6%
sprints (5-7f)
113
26.5%
55.8%
28.3%
58.4%
handicaps
159
25.2%
59.1%
25.8%
57.2%
mid fields (8-11)
69
21.7%
46.4%
20.3%
46.4%
The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW
Nothing separates the early types on measured speed — expect a fight for the front. Winners here typically raced recently (95% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (75% from the first three favourites); the typical winner also sits around 2nd at halfway before quickening late, having spent about 50% of its energy before the final two furlongs. On the measured reads, LIOSA (IRE) leads on 76, 3pts clear of SECRET OATH (IRE) and MAID IN DEVON (both 73) — flagged on our watch list. Little to argue against on the measured reads — the only question is the price. The shape danger is THE CARIBBEAN (IRE) — the strongest late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it. The market sees it differently, making MAID IN DEVON the 32% favourite — a horse our figures rate 3rd.
MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE
The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3
1ST · DATA ORDERDRAW 5
LIOSA (IRE)
OR 67 · Luke Catton / Zoe Hawkins
MARKET drifting 5.1 → 10.5 · the market rates it a 9% chance
76.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD
Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 5 todayThe top rating in this field (76.0)
2ND · DATA ORDERDRAW 10
SECRET OATH (IRE)
OR 70 · Callum Rodriguez / Clive Cox
MARKET drifting 6.2 → 10.5 · the market rates it a 9% chance
73.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans for · 4+ / 2−Drops in class todayRated #2 in this field (73.0)Stable in form this week — 2 wins from 11 runsRuns Front — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
3RD · DATA ORDERDRAW 3
MAID IN DEVON
OR 67 · Hector Crouch / Rod Millman
MARKET backed 3.3 → 3 · the market rates it a 32% chance
73.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD
Yard suits today’s conditions · 6+ / 0−Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 5 todayDrops in class todayRated #3 in this field (73.0)Proven over the trip (8 tries, beats market expectation at 2.88)
The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY
1MAID IN DEVONnet +10drops in class, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, backed since morning, energy in the winning band, proven at trip, yard positive in today’s setup − habitually slow away
2LAHINA BAY (IRE)net +8race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, backed since morning, top-2 late speed today, quickest early type, energy in the winning band, runs the dominant winning style here − steps into much stronger company by the marks, yard cold
3LIOSA (IRE)net +7figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), energy in the winning band, runs the dominant winning style here, FormLab watch flag, fits the winner profile on recency
EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD
THE CASE AGAINST THE TOP PICK graded 36% · n=119
Little to argue against on the measured reads — the only question is the price. MAID IN DEVON is the one to beat it — an edge LIOSA (IRE) lacks: a yard in form.
Balance, not doubt for its own sake — every pick has a case against; a reader should see ours.
Race ShapePACE × FINISH
even/unclear early shape (2 confirmed early types). Descriptive context — the shape never selects.
What this course & distance favours
Won by front-runners 45% · prominent racers 30% (47 past C&D winners · won up with the pace). Long, punishing uphill finish favouring strong gallopers/stayers. Winners’ energy signature: 49.84% spent early (band 49.17–50.58%, 63 measured winners, and the typical winner sits ~2 at halfway, 0.21s off the lead). graded 42% · n=389Only 2 confirmed early types — the likely leader can dictate, a real edge at a track this front/prominent-biased.
WHAT WINS THIS RACE graded 81% · n=89
20 similar races at SALISBURY, 5.5-6.5f, all-aged handicaps, Class 4-6, May-Sep, 2023-2026 (class band widened for sample)
Winners here typically raced recently (95% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (75% from the first three favourites). 20% won last time out, 10% were placed 2nd-3rd.
Age
35% 6yo+
35% 5yo
30% 4yo
Last ran
75% 15-45d
20% within 14d
5% 91d+
Market
35% 2nd favourite
25% 4th+ in the market
25% favourite
LTO form
70% unplaced last time
20% won last time
10% placed last time
The shape of past winners here · context only, never picks the horse.
Where the pace is drawn · 10 runners · stalls 1–10
12345678910
Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner. The early pace is spread across the draw (stalls 1–10).
If the ground changes
Should it turn softer: LIOSA (IRE) is unraced on softer ground · SECRET OATH (IRE) is 0/1 on softer ground · MAID IN DEVON is 2/4 on softer ground. Records only — going aptitude is context, never a downgrade (the market prices it).
RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup
LIOSA (IRE)MID49.9%100.2the 3rd-strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front
SECRET OATH (IRE)FRONT49.7%98.5a match for the quickest early, at the tempo that wins here — but empties in the final 2f · sharp from the stalls
THE COFFEE POD (IRE)HELD-UP51.2%97.5held up without the late gear (8th of 10 on late speed), yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
THE CARIBBEAN (IRE)HELD-UP48.4%101.2the strongest late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it
THUNDEROUS LOVEMID52.7%95.2held up without the late gear (10th of 10 on late speed), yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
MAID IN DEVONMID50.3%99.3one-paced late — 4th of 10 on late speed in this field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front
LAHINA BAY (IRE)PROMINENT50.2%100.4the quickest of today's early types, at the tempo that wins here — but holds one pace late
RED SNAPPERMID50.3%99.3one-paced late — 5th of 10 on late speed in this field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front
MAY ENCOUNTERMID50.3%98.8one-paced late — 6th of 10 on late speed in this field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front
CICI'S SECRETMID52.1%96.9held up without the late gear (9th of 10 on late speed), yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
The early fight · measured
Who actually gets the front: each confirmed early type’s speed over the opening 2f of its own recent races, compared with the horses it faced that day — plus how sharply it leaves the stalls.
LAHINA BAY (IRE)PROMINENTtypically ~1.5 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · fair break, 0.17s off the field’s best
SECRET OATH (IRE)FRONTtypically ~1.3 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · breaks with the very quickest
nothing separates the early types on measured speed — expect a fight for the front · context only — the shape never selects.
The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER
#1LIOSA (IRE)MID
DRAW 5 · OR 67 · Luke Catton / Zoe Hawkins
MARKET drifting 5.1 → 10.5 · the market rates it a 9% chance
76.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
Top on the figures, 3pts clear of the next, flagged on our watch list; the 3rd-strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front.
FormLab Figure
76.0 · ranked #1 here · career best 84
Official mark (OR)
67 · last won off 63
Record at today's distance
3 wins from 19 tries · below market expectation (0.9)
Days since last run
37
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.3s) · faster than its field on the clock Usually races prominent
Career sheet · last 18 months · 11 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Zoe Hawkins
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 84 at/around today's trip, clears the ~75.0 demand
The rider
Luke Catton · last 14 days: 1/2· at Salisbury: A/E 0 (n7)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 63graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields4th of 10
+0.04 mph
About the level of its fields · 41.6 raw
Break · 0-20mph6th of 10
+0.21s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed3rd of 10
100.2%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length8th of 10
7.22 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
18 Jun 26Ripon6fGood61st6360True42.4 +0.0099.7+0.05
23 May 26Windsor6f12yGd/Frm66th6559—42.9 +0.0299.1+0.20
Timed runs 2025-09-24 to 2026-06-18. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has metgraded 56% · n=765
THUNDEROUS LOVE · 1 meeting≈ 3.4L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
13 Apr 26 · 6f · Good — finished 4th vs 5th, 1L ahead · OR 67 v 73 · race median 72 (today 63)
LAHINA BAY (IRE) · 1 meeting · n/a
26 Jun 23 · 5f21y · Gd/Frm — finished 4th vs 1st, 1.75L behind · OR 57 v 56 · race median 58 (today 63) · stale — 37m ago, not in the read
THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — REVERSES strongly vs 1 rival(s) met (-3.4L adj, 1 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs THE CARIBBEAN (IRE) (read through ROMAN SPRING, FEDERAL ENVOY, RIOT, DREAM OF MISCHIEF) ≈ +4.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs THE COFFEE POD (IRE) (read through ROMAN SPRING, EM FOUR) ≈ -2.7L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs MAY ENCOUNTER (read through LODGE, BAY BREEZE, ALASHOS) ≈ +0.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
4lb above his last winning mark (67 today vs 63)Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 5 todayThe top rating in this field (76.0)Improving fast — last run rated 76, 12pts above his recent average of 63.7Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceSectional speed profile fits here — but his run-style (Mid) is rare among winners at this course & distance
LTO comment
“led after 1f, ridden when hung right over 1f out, readily”
#2SECRET OATH (IRE)FRONT
DRAW 10 · OR 70 · Callum Rodriguez / Clive Cox
MARKET drifting 6.2 → 10.5 · the market rates it a 9% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 4+ / 2−
73.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
2nd on the figures, 3pts off the top, sharp from the stalls; a match for the quickest early, at the tempo that wins here — but empties in the final 2f, sharp from the stalls.
FormLab Figure
73.0 · ranked #2 here · career best 77
Official mark (OR)
70 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 3 tries
Days since last run
14
Sectional clock
Last time: 0.8s slower than par — the result flattered it Usually races front-runner
Career sheet · last 18 months · 3 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Clive Cox · 808 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.7 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3)38/25514.9%1.166/3915.4%1.36
Over 5-6f trips ✦59/39415.0%1.0222/12917.1%1.3
In Class 4-5 company57/36915.4%1.016/9616.7%1.21
On turf ✦67/45814.6%1.1420/13814.5%1.15
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Coming back after 8 to 14 days10/5020.0%1.171/166.2%0.39
In fields of 8-1150/31016.1%1.229/7711.7%0.82
Too few runners to read reliably
At Salisbury (small sample)9/4221.4%1.111/156.7%0.36
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 73 is below the ~75.0 the race demands
The rider
Callum Rodriguez · last 14 days: 1/20· with this yard: A/E 0.82 (n9)
Sectional profile · last 3 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 63graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields7th of 10
+0.00 mph
About the level of its fields · 40.7 raw
Break · 0-20mph1st of 10
+0.01s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed7th of 10
98.5%
One-paced late
Stride length6th of 10
7.23 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
Timed runs 2025-06-04 to 2026-07-11. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Data gaps · never met today's rivals
Drops in class todayRated #2 in this field (73.0)Only 3 runs at this distanceStable in form this week — 2 wins from 11 runsRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionRuns Front — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“prominent, led 3f out, headed 1f out, no extra final 100 yds”
#3MAID IN DEVONMID
DRAW 3 · OR 67 · Hector Crouch / Rod Millman
MARKET backed 3.3 → 3 · the market rates it a 32% chance
Yard suits today’s conditions · 6+ / 0−
73.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
3rd on the figures, 3pts off the top, a yard in form; habitually slow from the stalls.
FormLab Figure
73.0 · ranked #3 here · career best 74
Official mark (OR)
67 · last won off 65
Record at today's distance
3 wins from 8 tries · beats market expectation (2.88)
Days since last run
22
Sectional clock
Last time: beat the class par by 0.8s · faster than its field on the clock Usually races prominent-closer
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 99.3% (one-paced late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 5 places on the course scale (CHEPSTOW 27th → SALISBURY 22nd) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Field strength · class context
Meets a field 12lb weaker than last time — today's median OR 63 vs 75 last run (CHEPSTOW · 3 Jul 26)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 7 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Rod Millman · 790 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.0 on the exchange
Signature angle: over an unchanged trip
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3)29/24311.9%0.9913/3735.1%2.0
In Class 4-5 company ✦40/33911.8%1.0620/11617.2%1.28
Over 5-6f trips ✦43/34512.5%1.1215/10414.4%1.2
On turf ✦52/39513.2%1.1119/12615.1%1.2
Above their last winning mark21/17711.9%0.9711/6118.0%1.15
In fields of 8-11 ✦34/31110.9%1.0215/10314.6%1.15
Too few runners to read reliably
At Salisbury (small sample)7/3917.9%1.625/1533.3%1.89
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 75 at/around today's trip, clears the ~75.0 demand
The rider
Hector Crouch · last 14 days: 3/27· at Salisbury: A/E 1.05 (n65)· with this yard: A/E 0.59 (n11)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 63graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields5th of 10
+0.01 mph
About the level of its fields · 40.2 raw
Break · 0-20mph8th of 10
+0.24s
Slow away in 3 of 6 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed4th of 10
99.3%
One-paced late
Stride length5th of 10
7.25 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
Timed runs 2025-10-02 to 2026-07-03. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has metgraded 56% · n=765
Read through a common rival
vs RED SNAPPER (read through BLUE ORBIT, GREY HORIZON, MOSCOW POWER, CRECIENTE) ≈ -0.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 5 todayDrops in class todayRated #3 in this field (73.0)Proven over the trip (8 tries, beats market expectation at 2.88)Stable in form this week — 7 wins from 14 runsHistorically underestimated by the marketA course winner (2 from 2 here)Sectional speed profile fits here — but his run-style (Mid) is rare among winners at this course & distance
LTO comment
“made all, pushed along 2f out, edged left 1f out, drew clear final 1f, kept on”
#4LAHINA BAY (IRE)PROMINENT
DRAW 1 · OR 58 · Seamus Cronin / Rachel Cook & John Bridger
MARKET backed 16 → 7.2 · the market rates it a 14% chance
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 6−
66.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
4th on the figures, 10pts off the top, the quickest away of the early types; stepping up into much stronger company on the ratings.
FormLab Figure
66.0 · ranked #4 here · career best 70
Official mark (OR)
58 · last won off 60
Record at today's distance
6 wins from 37 tries · beats market expectation (1.29)
Days since last run
14
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class · faster than its field on the clock Usually races front-runner (cooked late)
Career sheet · last 18 months · 20 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Rachel Cook & John Bridger · 350 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 7.3 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At Salisbury2/296.9%0.850/110.0%0.0
At this time of year (Q3)13/12210.7%1.220/140.0%0.0
Over 5-6f trips14/1588.9%0.941/462.2%0.29
In Class 4-5 company8/1246.5%0.771/342.9%0.46
On turf15/2107.1%0.842/484.2%0.58
Coming back after 8 to 14 days8/938.6%0.951/244.2%0.6
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 73 is below the ~75.0 the race demands
The rider
Seamus Cronin · last 14 days: 2/5· at Salisbury: A/E 0 (n1)· with this yard: A/E 6.2 (n1)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 63graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields10th of 10
-0.40 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 41.0 raw
Break · 0-20mph4th of 10
+0.17s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed2nd of 10
100.4%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length7th of 10
7.23 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
Timed runs 2025-12-22 to 2026-07-11. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest.· 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has metgraded 56% · n=765
LIOSA (IRE) · 1 meeting · n/a
26 Jun 23 · 5f21y · Gd/Frm — finished 1st vs 4th, 1.75L ahead · OR 56 v 57 · race median 58 (today 63) · stale — 37m ago, not in the read
Read through a common rival
vs THE CARIBBEAN (IRE) (read through THE BITTER MOOSE, SISTERS IN THE SKY, TWIRLER, MAMMY) ≈ -5.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs THE COFFEE POD (IRE) (read through INVINCIBLE SPEED, SO SMART, RAJETERIAT, EL BUFALO) ≈ -2.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs THUNDEROUS LOVE (read through THE BITTER MOOSE, SERENITY DREAM, RORY ROCKET, UNICO) ≈ -1.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs MAY ENCOUNTER (read through DARK SUN, DREAMBIRD DOLLY, SWEET SONATA, ALASHOS) ≈ -1.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
2lb below his last winning mark (58 today vs 60)Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 5 todayProven over the trip (37 tries, beats market expectation at 1.29)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the marketA course winner (1 from 2 here)Runs Prominent — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“close up, led over 2f out, headed final 1f, no extra”
#5THE COFFEE POD (IRE)HELD-UPFORMLAB WATCH
DRAW 8 · OR 64 · Lewis Edmunds / William Muir & Chris Grassick
MARKET 18.5 · the market rates it a 5% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 3−
61.3FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
5th on the figures, 14.7pts off the top, among the two fastest on speed against its past fields; habitually slow from the stalls.
FormLab Figure
61.3 · ranked #5 here · career best 91
Official mark (OR)
64 · last won off 75
Record at today's distance
2 wins from 22 tries · below market expectation (0.7)
Days since last run
16
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade below par (-0.5s) Usually races midfield
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 97.52% (one-paced late)
Course scale · class context
drops 15 places on the course scale (NEWBURY 7th → SALISBURY 22nd) — much easier company than the bare class suggests
Field strength · class context
Meets a field 4lb weaker than last time — today's median OR 63 vs 66.5 last run (NEWBURY · 9 Jul 26)
Class Reversion Watch[P42] · A PATTERN WE TRACK · NOT A TIP
This horse has shown far more ability in the past than its recent form suggests. Three things line up today: its best-ever rating is well above what it is running to now, the handicapper has dropped it back to a mark it has already proved it can win from, and the sectional clock says the raw speed is still there.
Best ever · vs now
TFR 91 at its peak · running to 61.3 now
a 29.7pt gap between what it HAS done and what it is CURRENTLY doing
The handicapper's mark
11lb LOWER than the mark it last WON from (64 today · won off 75)
it has already won a race from a HIGHER mark than today's — the handicapper has given it a real chance
Raw speed
1st fastest of 10 here
on recorded sectional times against the fields it has met — the engine has not gone
Why it's flagged: in 2024-25, horses fitting this exact pattern won roughly 13% of the time at an average Betfair price near 16.0 — occasional big-priced winners. The 2026 sample is still too small to say whether that holds, so every one is tracked in The Record. This is background, not a selection — only the price decides whether one is ever worth an interest.
Headgear
First-time hood
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 6 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
William Muir & Chris Grassick · 477 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.6 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Coming back after 15 to 45 days18/2148.4%0.776/5910.2%1.15
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Over 5-6f trips4/705.7%0.560/120.0%0.0
In Class 4-5 company28/20913.4%1.373/506.0%0.75
On turf18/2277.9%0.784/666.1%0.82
Too few runners to read reliably
At Salisbury (small sample)1/1010.0%1.011/333.3%6.3
Below their last winning mark (small sample)1/520.0%2.61/425.0%1.75
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 91 at/around today's trip, clears the ~75.0 demand
The rider
Lewis Edmunds · last 14 days: 4/26· at Salisbury: A/E 1.4 (n28)· with this yard: A/E 1.07 (n377)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 63graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields1st of 10
+0.68 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 43.6 raw
Break · 0-20mph10th of 10
+0.35s
Slow away in 3 of 5 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed8th of 10
97.5%
One-paced late
Stride length1st of 10
7.71 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
Timed runs 2025-04-22 to 2026-07-09. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has metgraded 56% · n=765
THUNDEROUS LOVE · 1 meeting≈ 0.1L ahead on today's terms · line-ball
9 Jul 26 · 6f · Gd/Frm — finished 7th vs 9th, 0.5L ahead · OR 66 v 65 · race median 66 (today 63)
THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — line-ball vs 1 rival(s) met (+0.1L adj, 1 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs LIOSA (IRE) (read through ROMAN SPRING, EM FOUR) ≈ +2.7L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs LAHINA BAY (IRE) (read through INVINCIBLE SPEED, SO SMART, RAJETERIAT, EL BUFALO) ≈ +2.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs THE CARIBBEAN (IRE) (read through ROMAN SPRING, REBEL PATH, ON EDGE) ≈ +1.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
11lb below his last winning mark (64 today vs 75)Proven at this level — a Class 2 winner, racing in Class 5 todayJockey goes well at this track (1.4x market expectation)Lost roughly 2.0 lengths at the start last timeCut 2lb after losing the start last time — but our checklist rejected that excuse: the cut more likely reflects declining formRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price
LTO comment
“mid-field, ridden over 2f out, little impression”
#6MAY ENCOUNTERMIDFORMLAB WATCH
DRAW 4 · OR 57 · Mason Paetel / Henry Candy
MARKET 8.6 · the market rates it a 11% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 3+ / 2−
60FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
6th on the figures, 16pts off the top, flagged on our watch list; one-paced late — 6th of 10 on late speed in this field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front.
FormLab Figure
60 · ranked #6 here · career best 70
Official mark (OR)
57 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 8 tries
Days since last run
21
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class Usually races prominent · clock read is off a superseded run
Career sheet · last 18 months · 7 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Henry Candy · 218 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.8 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At Salisbury2/1414.3%2.311/425.0%2.9
In Class 4-5 company5/945.3%0.555/3514.3%1.64
Over 5-6f trips2/573.5%0.394/3212.5%1.37
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Coming back after 15 to 45 days2/702.9%0.272/345.9%0.63
At this time of year (Q3)7/828.5%0.731/128.3%0.7
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 70 is below the ~75.0 the race demands
The rider
Mason Paetel · last 14 days: 3/19· at Salisbury: A/E 0 (n4)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 63graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields8th of 10
-0.06 mph
About the level of its fields · 41.2 raw
Break · 0-20mph9th of 10
+0.30s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed6th of 10
98.8%
One-paced late
Stride length4th of 10
7.46 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
16 May 25Newmarket6fGd/Frm54th7067.5Fast early41.4 +0.0794.8+0.13
Timed runs 2025-05-16 to 2026-07-04. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none.· 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has metgraded 56% · n=765
Read through a common rival
vs THE CARIBBEAN (IRE) (read through TWIRLER, FOREVER MY PRINCE, ON EDGE, ROYAL ACCORD) ≈ -4.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs LAHINA BAY (IRE) (read through DARK SUN, DREAMBIRD DOLLY, SWEET SONATA, ALASHOS) ≈ +1.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs THUNDEROUS LOVE (read through TWIRLER, LODGE, PHOENIX MOON, BAY BREEZE) ≈ -0.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs LIOSA (IRE) (read through LODGE, BAY BREEZE, ALASHOS) ≈ -0.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Lost roughly 3.2 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceSectional speed profile fits here — but his run-style (Mid) is rare among winners at this course & distance
LTO comment
“close up, challenged halfway, no extra final 100 yds”
#7THUNDEROUS LOVEMID
DRAW 7 · OR 62 · Olivia Tubb / Jonathan Portman
MARKET 11.5 · the market rates it a 8% chance
Yard mixed · 2+ / 2−
59.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
7th on the figures, 17pts off the top, proven at the trip; tends to burn early and empty out.
FormLab Figure
59.0 · ranked #7 here · career best 80
Official mark (OR)
62 · last won off 70
Record at today's distance
6 wins from 24 tries · beats market expectation (1.9)
Days since last run
16
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade below par (-0.6s) Usually races prominent and weakens
Career sheet · last 18 months · 16 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Jonathan Portman · 645 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.8 on the exchange
Signature angle: at this time of year (Q2), when the yard has won in the last 3 days
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3)21/19310.9%1.04/2516.0%1.18
In Class 4-5 company ✦32/26412.1%1.1713/8914.6%1.16
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Below their last winning mark2/1020.0%1.491/147.1%0.5
Over 5-6f trips18/12714.2%1.313/506.0%0.64
Too few runners to read reliably
At Salisbury (small sample)4/2615.4%1.290/30.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 80 at/around today's trip, clears the ~75.0 demand
The rider
Olivia Tubb · last 14 days: 0/6· at Salisbury: A/E 1.66 (n10)· with this yard: A/E 1.48 (n122)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 63graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields3rd of 10
+0.05 mph
About the level of its fields · 41.2 raw
Break · 0-20mph5th of 10
+0.19s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed10th of 10
95.2%
One-paced late
Stride length3rd of 10
7.63 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
Timed runs 2026-04-13 to 2026-07-09. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest.· finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has metgraded 56% · n=765
THE CARIBBEAN (IRE) · 1 meeting · n/a
10 Jul 25 · 6f · Firm — finished 1st vs 6th, 3.5L ahead · OR 63 v 70 · race median 64 (today 63) · stale — 12m ago, not in the read
13 Apr 26 · 6f · Good — finished 5th vs 4th, 1L behind · OR 73 v 67 · race median 72 (today 63)
THE COFFEE POD (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 0.1L behind on today's terms · line-ball
9 Jul 26 · 6f · Gd/Frm — finished 9th vs 7th, 0.5L behind · OR 65 v 66 · race median 66 (today 63)
THIN [n=2 meeting(s), 2 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 2 rival(s) met (+1.6L adj, 2 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs RED SNAPPER (read through CAMPENAERTS, MONSIEUR KODI) ≈ -2.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs LAHINA BAY (IRE) (read through THE BITTER MOOSE, SERENITY DREAM, RORY ROCKET, UNICO) ≈ +1.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs MAY ENCOUNTER (read through TWIRLER, LODGE, PHOENIX MOON, BAY BREEZE) ≈ +0.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
8lb below his last winning mark (62 today vs 70)Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 5 todayImproving fast — last run rated 59, 10pts above his recent average of 49.0Proven over the trip (24 tries, beats market expectation at 1.9)Jockey goes well at this track (1.66x market expectation)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the marketA course winner (2 from 8 here)
LTO comment
“held up, ridden over 2f out, little impression”
#8THE CARIBBEAN (IRE)HELD-UP
DRAW 6 · OR 64 · Ebrahim Nader / Heather Main
MARKET 42 · the market rates it a 2% chance
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 7−
57.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
8th on the figures, 19pts off the top, one of the two strongest finishers here; the strongest late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it.
FormLab Figure
57.0 · ranked #8 here · career best 88
Official mark (OR)
64 · last won off 63
Record at today's distance
3 wins from 23 tries · below market expectation (0.94)
Days since last run
32
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade below par (-0.7s) Usually races midfield-closer
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 101.17% (holds late)
Course scale · class context
drops 15 places on the course scale (NEWBURY 7th → SALISBURY 22nd) — much easier company than the bare class suggests
Headgear
Blinkers
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 13 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Heather Main · 311 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.4 on the exchange
Signature angle: as an exposed handicapper
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Over 5-6f trips8/7011.4%1.160/190.0%0.0
Coming back after 15 to 45 days12/11510.4%1.00/230.0%0.0
Above their last winning mark8/4816.7%1.090/270.0%0.0
At this time of year (Q3)10/1079.3%1.020/60.0%0.0
In fields of 8-1116/12812.5%1.170/280.0%0.0
In Class 4-5 company14/1787.9%0.891/412.4%0.23
On turf11/1666.6%0.781/313.2%0.32
Too few runners to read reliably
At Salisbury (small sample)0/50.0%0.00/10.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 88 at/around today's trip, clears the ~75.0 demand
The rider
Ebrahim Nader · last 14 days: 0/3
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 63graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields2nd of 10
+0.11 mph
About the level of its fields · 41.7 raw
Break · 0-20mph3rd of 10
+0.12s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed1st of 10
101.2%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length2nd of 10
7.64 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
23 Jun 26Newbury6fGd/Frm57th6665Fast early41.7 -0.2197.0+0.02
20 Feb 26Southwell7f14yStd/Slow512th6666True39.3 +0.0595.0—
12 Jan 26Wolverhampton7f36yStd53rd6767True39.1 +0.19104.2+0.06
13 Dec 25Wolverhampton7f36ySlow61st6363True39.9 +0.84105.2+0.11
6 Dec 25Wolverhampton7f36ySlow59th6566True39.3 +0.06104.8+0.10
4 Oct 25Wolverhampton7f36ySlow52nd6271.5Fast early40.4 -0.26100.8+0.30
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
Timed runs 2025-10-04 to 2026-06-23. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has metgraded 56% · n=765
THUNDEROUS LOVE · 1 meeting · n/a
10 Jul 25 · 6f · Firm — finished 6th vs 1st, 3.5L behind · OR 70 v 63 · race median 64 (today 63) · stale — 12m ago, not in the read
Read through a common rival
vs LAHINA BAY (IRE) (read through THE BITTER MOOSE, SISTERS IN THE SKY, TWIRLER, MAMMY) ≈ +5.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs LIOSA (IRE) (read through ROMAN SPRING, FEDERAL ENVOY, RIOT, DREAM OF MISCHIEF) ≈ -4.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs MAY ENCOUNTER (read through TWIRLER, FOREVER MY PRINCE, ON EDGE, ROYAL ACCORD) ≈ +4.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs THE COFFEE POD (IRE) (read through ROMAN SPRING, REBEL PATH, ON EDGE) ≈ -1.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Yet to win at this level — a Class 6 winner, upped to Class 5 todayHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price
LTO comment
“very slowly away, ridden when hung left over 2f out, soon beaten”
#9RED SNAPPERMID
DRAW 9 · OR 62 · Charlie Tucker / Kathy Turner
MARKET 16.5 · the market rates it a 6% chance
55.3FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
9th on the figures, 20.7pts off the top, meets much weaker company than last time on the ratings; the clock has it fading late.
FormLab Figure
55.3 · ranked #9 here · career best 71
Official mark (OR)
62 · last won off 60
Record at today's distance
1 win from 11 tries · in line with the market (0.99)
Days since last run
8
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.2s slower than par — the result flattered it Usually races prominent-closer
Career sheet · last 18 months · 11 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Kathy Turner
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 71 is below the ~75.0 the race demands
The rider
Charlie Tucker · last 14 days: 1/7· at Salisbury: A/E 3.36 (n4)· with this yard: A/E 0 (n1)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 63graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields6th of 10
+0.01 mph
About the level of its fields · 40.3 raw
Break · 0-20mph7th of 10
+0.22s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed5th of 10
99.3%
One-paced late
Stride length10th of 10
7.05 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
Timed runs 2025-10-20 to 2026-07-17. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest.· 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has metgraded 56% · n=765
Read through a common rival
vs THUNDEROUS LOVE (read through CAMPENAERTS, MONSIEUR KODI) ≈ +2.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
vs MAID IN DEVON (read through BLUE ORBIT, GREY HORIZON, MOSCOW POWER, CRECIENTE) ≈ +0.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Yet to win at this level — a Class 6 winner, upped to Class 5 todayJockey goes well at this track (3.36x market expectation)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultRace-fit — ran 8 days agoHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price
LTO comment
“slowly away, rear, keeping on when not clear run final 1f, never nearer”
#10CICI'S SECRETMID
DRAW 2 · OR 57 · Josephine Gordon / Charlie Pike
MARKET 50 · the market rates it a 2% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 4+ / 2−
49.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
10th on the figures, 27pts off the top, sharp from the stalls; its sectional profile is out of date.
FormLab Figure
49.0 · ranked #10 here · career best 54
Official mark (OR)
57 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 3 tries
Days since last run
358
Sectional clock
Last time: 0.8s slower than par — the result flattered it · faster than its field on the clock Usually races midfield and fades
Career sheet · last 18 months · 3 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads. · last rated run 358 days ago
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Charlie Pike · 80 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.9 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At Salisbury—1/425.0%10.08
Coming back after 180 days+—1/812.5%5.56
In Class 4-5 company—4/3710.8%2.1
On turf—4/488.3%1.24
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Over 5-6f trips—0/240.0%0.0
At this time of year (Q3)—0/110.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 54 is below the ~75.0 the race demands
The rider
Josephine Gordon · last 14 days: 0/3· at Salisbury: A/E 0 (n4)
Sectional profile · last 2 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 63graded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields9th of 10
-0.08 mph
About the level of its fields · 40.1 raw · only 2 runs
Break · 0-20mph2nd of 10
+0.03s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed9th of 10
96.9%
One-paced late
Stride length9th of 10
7.08 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
1 Aug 25Bath5f160yGd/Frm46th——True39.7 -0.2397.3+0.05
Timed runs 2025-07-10 to 2025-08-01 · last timed run 358 days ago — the profile is out of date. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Data gaps · sectional read off only 2 timed runs · never met today's rivals
Drops in class todayOnly 3 runs at this distanceRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultReturns from 358 days off
LTO comment
“mid-field, pushed along 3f out, more to give, no impression”