Class 4 · 1m1f200y · Good to Firm (Firm in places)
GENERATED 2026-07-25 · 4 RUNNERS PROFILED
BUILT 12:51 · 25 Jul · GOING AT BUILD: Good to Firm (Firm in places)
THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYSboth orders below are marked against the actual results every night — how often each one’s top pick won, and how often the winner came from its projected top 3full record →
DATA ORDERtop pick won 29.3%winner in its top 3 60.6%297 settled raceslatest day: won 9/32 · top-3 19/32
FORENSIC READtop pick won 28.6%winner in its top 3 58.9%224 settled races(the Data Order on those same races: 28.1% · 58%)
THE RECORD IN RACES LIKE THISthe same nightly-settled record, kept only to past races sharing this race’s profile
Data Order
Forensic Read
races like this one
settled
won
top-3
won
top-3
Class 4
72
25%
58.3%
29.2%
62.5%
middle (9-12f)
41
41.5%
70.7%
39%
70.7%
handicaps
159
25.2%
59.1%
25.8%
57.2%
small fields (<=7)
136
33.8%
66.2%
35.3%
70.6%
The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW
QUEEN'S COMPANION is the only confirmed early type — if it breaks level it should get the front to itself. Winners here typically raced recently (65% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (82% from the first three favourites); the typical winner also sits around 2nd at halfway before quickening late, having spent about 50% of its energy before the final two furlongs. On the measured reads, ORCHARD (FR) leads on 83, 2pts clear of QUEEN'S COMPANION — in form. Little to argue against on the measured reads — the only question is the price. The shape danger is SUDBURY HILL (IRE) — the strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it. The market sees it differently, making QUEEN'S COMPANION the 48% favourite — a horse our figures rate 2nd.
MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE
The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3
1ST · DATA ORDERDRAW 2
ORCHARD (FR)
OR 74 · Mason Paetel / Warren Greatrex
MARKET drifting 5.6 → 8.8 · the market rates it a 11% chance
83.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 6−The top rating in this field (83.0)Met trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically underestimated by the market
2ND · DATA ORDERDRAW 4
QUEEN'S COMPANION
OR 76 · Hector Crouch / Ralph Beckett
MARKET drifting 1.81 → 2.04 · the market rates it a 48% chance
81.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD
Yard mixed · 1+ / 1−Rated #2 in this field (81.0)Historically underestimated by the marketRuns Prominent — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
3RD · DATA ORDERDRAW 3
DOUBLE RED
OR 74 · Lewis Edmunds / Henry Candy
MARKET backed 8.8 → 5 · the market rates it a 20% chance
77.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD
Yard mixed · 3+ / 3−Rated #3 in this field (77.0)Proven over the trip (11 tries, beats market expectation at 1.7)Jockey goes well at this track (1.4x market expectation)Historically underestimated by the market
The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY
1QUEEN'S COMPANIONnet +7figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, top-2 late speed today, yard hot, fits the winner profile on recency
2DOUBLE REDnet +7race-fit (ran <=45d), market top-3, backed since morning, top-2 speed vs its fields, energy in the winning band, proven at trip, FormLab watch flag, fits the winner profile on recency − habitually slow away
3ORCHARD (FR)net +6figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), top-2 speed vs its fields, energy in the winning band, fits the winner profile on recency
EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD
THE CASE AGAINST THE TOP PICK graded 36% · n=119
Little to argue against on the measured reads — the only question is the price. QUEEN'S COMPANION is the one to beat it — an edge ORCHARD (FR) lacks: a yard in form.
Balance, not doubt for its own sake — every pick has a case against; a reader should see ours.
Race ShapePACE × FINISH
one confirmed early type — lone-lead possible. Descriptive context — the shape never selects.
What this course & distance favours
Won by front-runners 41% · prominent racers 34% (29 past C&D winners · won up with the pace). Long, punishing uphill finish favouring strong gallopers/stayers. Winners’ energy signature: 49.83% spent early (band 48.23–50.38%, 42 measured winners, and the typical winner sits ~2 at halfway, 0.24s off the lead). graded 42% · n=389Only one confirmed early type — the likely leader can dictate, a real edge at a track this front/prominent-biased.
WHAT WINS THIS RACE graded 81% · n=89
17 similar races at SALISBURY, 9.4-10.4f, all-aged handicaps, Class 3-5, May-Sep, 2023-2026 (class band widened for sample)
Winners here typically raced recently (65% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (82% from the first three favourites). 24% won last time out, 53% were placed 2nd-3rd.
Age
47% 4yo
35% 3yo
18% 5yo
Last ran
47% 15-45d
24% 46-90d
18% within 14d
Market
41% 2nd favourite
24% favourite
18% 4th+ in the market
LTO form
53% placed last time
24% won last time
24% unplaced last time
The shape of past winners here · context only, never picks the horse.
Where the pace is drawn · 4 runners · stalls 1–4
1234
Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner.
If the ground changes
Should it turn softer: ORCHARD (FR) is 0/4 on softer ground · QUEEN'S COMPANION is 0/2 on softer ground · DOUBLE RED is 1/3 on softer ground. Records only — going aptitude is context, never a downgrade (the market prices it).
RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup
ORCHARD (FR)MID48.7%103.4a genuine turn of foot — 3rd-best late speed here, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
DOUBLE REDHELD-UP50.2%103.4a genuine turn of foot — 4th-best late speed here, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
SUDBURY HILL (IRE)HELD-UP48.8%105.4the strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
QUEEN'S COMPANIONPROMINENT48.2%103.7the only measured early speed in the race, without over-committing — and finds plenty late
The early fight · measured
Who actually gets the front: each confirmed early type’s speed over the opening 2f of its own recent races, compared with the horses it faced that day — plus how sharply it leaves the stalls.
QUEEN'S COMPANIONPROMINENTtypically ~1.2 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · fair break, 0.06s off the field’s best
QUEEN'S COMPANION is the only confirmed early type — if it breaks level it should get the front to itself · context only — the shape never selects.
The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER
#1ORCHARD (FR)MID
DRAW 2 · OR 74 · Mason Paetel / Warren Greatrex
MARKET drifting 5.6 → 8.8 · the market rates it a 11% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 6−
83.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
Top on the figures, 2pts clear of the next, in form; a genuine turn of foot — 3rd-best late speed here, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it.
FormLab Figure
83.0 · ranked #1 here · career best 83
Official mark (OR)
74 · last won off 70
Record at today's distance
untried at this distance
Days since last run
26
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade below par (-0.5s) · faster than its field on the clock Usually races midfield-closer
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 103.42% (strong late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 12 places on the course scale (FFOS LAS 34th → SALISBURY 22nd) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 5 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Warren Greatrex · 217 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.5 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3)9/939.7%0.811/1010.0%1.27
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Over 9-10f trips1/195.3%0.510/70.0%0.0
Coming back after 15 to 45 days10/9910.1%0.770/230.0%0.0
Above their last winning mark1/137.7%0.520/100.0%0.0
On turf7/1275.5%0.550/340.0%0.0
In fields of <=72/326.2%0.370/130.0%0.0
In Class 4-5 company10/1277.9%0.742/345.9%0.7
Too few runners to read reliably
At Salisbury (small sample)1/911.1%0.810/20.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 80 at/around today's trip, clears the ~80.0 demand
The rider
Mason Paetel · last 14 days: 3/19· at Salisbury: A/E 0 (n4)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's fieldgraded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields2nd of 4
+0.12 mph
About the level of its fields · 39.1 raw
Break · 0-20mph2nd of 4
+0.22s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed3rd of 4
103.4%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length1st of 4
7.59 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
29 Jun 26Ffos Las1mGood52nd7372.5Fast early39.4 -0.02100.8+0.22
4 Jun 26Ffos Las1mGd/Sft53rd7367Fast early38.0 +0.40101.1+0.18
12 Jun 25Newbury1mGd/Frm514th7472Slow early38.8 +0.0796.5+0.22
5 May 25Kempton Park1mStd51st7071True40.2 +0.98109.2+0.00
Timed runs 2024-10-30 to 2026-06-29. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none.· 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Data gaps · never met today's rivals
4lb above his last winning mark (74 today vs 70)Yet to win at this level — a Class 5 winner, upped to Class 4 todayThe top rating in this field (83.0)Improving fast — last run rated 83, 15pts above his recent average of 67.7Met trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically underestimated by the market
LTO comment
“in touch, shaken up over 2f out, ridden and headway approaching final 1f, stayed on”
#2QUEEN'S COMPANIONPROMINENT
DRAW 4 · OR 76 · Hector Crouch / Ralph Beckett
MARKET drifting 1.81 → 2.04 · the market rates it a 48% chance
Yard mixed · 1+ / 1−
81.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
2nd on the figures, 2pts off the top, a yard in form; the only measured early speed in the race, without over-committing — and finds plenty late.
FormLab Figure
81.0 · ranked #2 here · career best 81
Official mark (OR)
76 · last won off 74
Record at today's distance
1 win from 1 tries · beats market expectation (4.76)
Days since last run
16
Sectional clock
Last time: beat the class par by 1.4s · faster than its field on the clock Usually races prominent
Run style & finish
Prominent · finishing speed 103.73% (strong late)
Course scale · class context
drops 15 places on the course scale (NEWBURY 7th → SALISBURY 22nd) — much easier company than the bare class suggests
Headgear
First-time cheekpieces · yard 7% with first-time gear (A/E 0.48)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 5 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Ralph Beckett · 1396 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 3.5 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3)90/46719.3%0.9819/7425.7%1.2
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At Salisbury ✦13/6420.3%0.965/2420.8%0.81
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 83 at/around today's trip, clears the ~80.0 demand
The rider
Hector Crouch · last 14 days: 3/27· at Salisbury: A/E 1.05 (n65)· with this yard: A/E 1.09 (n500)
Sectional profile · last 5 timed runs · ranks are against today's fieldgraded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields3rd of 4
-0.01 mph
About the level of its fields · 39.5 raw
Break · 0-20mph1st of 4
+0.06s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed2nd of 4
103.7%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length4th of 4
6.92 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
Timed runs 2025-10-02 to 2026-07-09. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest.· 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Data gaps · never met today's rivals
Yet to win at this level — a Class 5 winner, upped to Class 4 todayRated #2 in this field (81.0)Only 1 run at this distanceHistorically underestimated by the marketRuns Prominent — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“tracked pace, pushed along 2f out, switched over 1f out, led final ½f, just held on”
#3DOUBLE REDHELD-UPFORMLAB WATCH
DRAW 3 · OR 74 · Lewis Edmunds / Henry Candy
MARKET backed 8.8 → 5 · the market rates it a 20% chance
Yard mixed · 3+ / 3−
77.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
3rd on the figures, 6pts off the top, backed since the morning; habitually slow from the stalls.
FormLab Figure
77.0 · ranked #3 here · career best 82
Official mark (OR)
74 · last won off 72
Record at today's distance
3 wins from 11 tries · beats market expectation (1.7)
Days since last run
24
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.7s slower than par — the result flattered it · faster than its field on the clock Usually races midfield-closer · clock read is off a superseded run
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 103.4% (strong late)
Course scale · class context
drops 16 places on the course scale (EPSOM DOWNS 6th → SALISBURY 22nd) — much easier company than the bare class suggests
Headgear
Cheekpieces
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 11 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Henry Candy · 218 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.8 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At Salisbury2/1414.3%2.311/425.0%2.9
In Class 4-5 company5/945.3%0.555/3514.3%1.64
Over 9-10f trips4/2814.3%1.12/1315.4%1.4
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Coming back after 15 to 45 days2/702.9%0.272/345.9%0.63
At this time of year (Q3)7/828.5%0.731/128.3%0.7
Above their last winning mark2/1216.7%1.111/911.1%0.81
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 82 at/around today's trip, clears the ~80.0 demand
The rider
Lewis Edmunds · last 14 days: 4/26· at Salisbury: A/E 1.4 (n28)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's fieldgraded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields1st of 4
+0.34 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 39.2 raw
Break · 0-20mph4th of 4
+0.50s
Slow away in 3 of 6 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed4th of 4
103.4%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length2nd of 4
7.19 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
Timed runs 2025-09-11 to 2026-07-01. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Data gaps · never met today's rivals
Yet to win at this level — a Class 5 winner, upped to Class 4 todayRated #3 in this field (77.0)Improving fast — last run rated 77, 18pts above his recent average of 59.0Proven over the trip (11 tries, beats market expectation at 1.7)Jockey goes well at this track (1.4x market expectation)Lost roughly 4.4 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the market
LTO comment
“waited with, struggling 3f out, some late headway”
#4SUDBURY HILL (IRE)HELD-UP
DRAW 1 · OR 77 · Callum Rodriguez / Harry Derham
MARKET 4.8 · the market rates it a 21% chance
71FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
4th on the figures, 12pts off the top, fits the winner profile on market position; the strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it.
FormLab Figure
71 · ranked #4 here · career best 85
Official mark (OR)
77 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 2 tries
Days since last run
72
Sectional clock
Last time: 4.7s slower than par — the result flattered it Usually races midfield
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 105.38% (strong late)
Course scale · class context
drops 20 places on the course scale (YORK 2nd → SALISBURY 22nd) — much easier company than the bare class suggests
Headgear
First-time cheekpieces
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 10 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Harry Derham
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 87 at/around today's trip, clears the ~80.0 demand
The rider
Callum Rodriguez · last 14 days: 1/20· with this yard: A/E 0 (n1)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's fieldgraded 42% · n=3322
Speed · vs its fields4th of 4
-0.02 mph
About the level of its fields · 40.1 raw
Break · 0-20mph3rd of 4
+0.25s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed1st of 4
105.4%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length3rd of 4
7.07 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
14 May 26York1m3f188yGood412th7876True36.9 -0.4895.1+0.00
Timed runs 2025-10-02 to 2026-05-14. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Data gaps · never met today's rivals
Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayOnly 2 runs at this distanceRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price
LTO comment
“mid-division, in touch over 2f out, weakening when bumped soon after, eased”