FORMLAB Race Report — Salisbury 20:45

FORMLAB RACING

THE SCIENCE OF FORM  ·  RACE INTELLIGENCE REPORT

Salisbury · 20:45

Class 6 · 1m · Good to Firm (Firm in places) · FIELD MEDIAN OR 51.5

GENERATED 2026-07-25 · 6 RUNNERS PROFILED

BUILT 12:52 · 25 Jul · GOING AT BUILD: Good to Firm (Firm in places)

THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYSboth orders below are marked against the actual results every night — how often each one’s top pick won, and how often the winner came from its projected top 3full record →

DATA ORDERtop pick won 29.3%winner in its top 3 60.6%297 settled raceslatest day: won 9/32 · top-3 19/32

FORENSIC READtop pick won 28.6%winner in its top 3 58.9%224 settled races(the Data Order on those same races: 28.1% · 58%)

THE RECORD IN RACES LIKE THISthe same nightly-settled record, kept only to past races sharing this race’s profile

		Data Order		Forensic Read
races like this one	settled	won	top-3	won	top-3
Class 6	58	25.9%	51.7%	19%	46.6%
miles (7-9f)	49	22.4%	49%	22.4%	42.9%
handicaps	159	25.2%	59.1%	25.8%	57.2%
small fields (<=7)	136	33.8%	66.2%	35.3%	70.6%

The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW

ARVANA BELLE (IRE) is the only confirmed early type — if it breaks level it should get the front to itself. Winners here typically raced recently (88% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (62% from the first three favourites); the typical winner also sits around 3.5 at halfway before quickening late, having spent about 49% of its energy before the final two furlongs. On the measured reads, ESCAPE MAGIC leads on 62, 6pts clear of DESERT CHARM — fits the winner profile on recency. Little to argue against on the measured reads — the only question is the price. The shape danger is IT'S LIFE — the strongest late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it. The market agrees — it makes ESCAPE MAGIC the 42% favourite.

MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE

The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3

1ST · DATA ORDER DRAW 5

ESCAPE MAGIC

OR 55 · Callum Rodriguez / Owen Burrows

MARKET drifting 1.9 → 2.38 · the market rates it a 42% chance

62.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD

Yard mixed · 1+ / 1−Proven at this level — a Class 6 winner, racing in Class 6 todayThe top rating in this field (62.0)Historically underestimated by the marketRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits

2ND · DATA ORDER DRAW 3

DESERT CHARM

OR 52 · Hector Crouch / Mike Murphy

MARKET backed 4 → 2.74 · the market rates it a 36% chance

56.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD

Yard mixed — leans for · 6+ / 1−Proven at this level — a Class 6 winner, racing in Class 6 todayRated #2 in this field (56.0)Proven over the trip (11 tries, beats market expectation at 2.78)Historically underestimated by the market

3RD · DATA ORDER DRAW 6

LADY OF THE ISLES (IRE)

OR 52 · Ebrahim Nader / Heather Main

MARKET drifting 17.5 → 19 · the market rates it a 5% chance

55 FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD

Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 5−Rated #3 in this field (55)Runs Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits

The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY

1DESERT CHARMnet +9figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, backed since morning, top-2 speed vs its fields, runs the dominant winning style here, proven at trip − burns early and empties

2ESCAPE MAGICnet +6figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, energy in the winning band, fits the winner profile on recency

3ARVANA BELLE (IRE)net +6race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, energy in the winning band, yard positive in today’s setup, yard hot

EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD

THE CASE AGAINST THE TOP PICK graded 36% · n=119

Little to argue against on the measured reads — the only question is the price. DESERT CHARM is the one to beat it — an edge ESCAPE MAGIC lacks: backed since the morning.

Balance, not doubt for its own sake — every pick has a case against; a reader should see ours.

Worth A Second Look graded 30% · n=195

These horses rank lower on raw ability figures — but today's race fits a pattern their stable has repeatedly won in. In plain terms, why each deserves another look before you dismiss it.

ARVANA BELLE (IRE) FIGURE #5

Rod Millman's runners in Class 6-7 company win 14.3% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons. Rod Millman's runners kept to the same class win 15.3% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons.

Race ShapePACE × FINISH

one confirmed early type — lone-lead possible. Descriptive context — the shape never selects.

What this course & distance favours

Won by hold-up closers 30% · front-runners 30% (23 past C&D winners · no strong run-style bias). Long, punishing uphill finish favouring strong gallopers/stayers. Winners’ energy signature: 49.13% spent early (band 48.14–50.39%, 28 measured winners, and the typical winner sits ~3.5 at halfway, 0.35s off the lead). graded 42% · n=389

WHAT WINS THIS RACE graded 81% · n=89

16 similar races at SALISBURY, 7.0-9.0f, all-aged handicaps, Class 4-7, all months, 2023-2026 (class band widened for sample)

Winners here typically raced recently (88% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (62% from the first three favourites). 6% won last time out, 38% were placed 2nd-3rd.

Age

56% 6yo+

44% 4yo

Last ran

75% 15-45d

12% within 14d

6% 91d+

Market

38% 4th+ in the market

31% 2nd favourite

25% favourite

LTO form

56% unplaced last time

38% placed last time

6% won last time

The shape of past winners here · context only, never picks the horse.

Where the pace is drawn · 6 runners · stalls 1–6

123456

Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner. The early pace is drawn LOW (early types average stall 2.0 of 6, field average 3.5).

If the ground changes

Should it turn softer: ESCAPE MAGIC is unraced on softer ground · DESERT CHARM is 1/3 on softer ground · LADY OF THE ISLES (IRE) is unraced on softer ground. Records only — going aptitude is context, never a downgrade (the market prices it).

RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup

LADY OF THE ISLES (IRE) MID 49.5% 102.1 the 2nd-strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it

DESERT CHARM HELD-UP 50.4% 98.0 held up without the late gear (4th of 6 on late speed), yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front

IT'S LIFE HELD-UP 47.4% 109.0 the strongest late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it

ESCAPE MAGIC MID 50.1% 98.9 the 3rd-strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front

OUTRACE (IRE) MID 51.1% 97.0 held up without the late gear (6th of 6 on late speed), yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front

ARVANA BELLE (IRE) PROMINENT 50.2% 97.4 the only measured early speed in the race, at the tempo that wins here — but empties in the final 2f

The early fight · measured

Who actually gets the front: each confirmed early type’s speed over the opening 2f of its own recent races, compared with the horses it faced that day — plus how sharply it leaves the stalls.

ARVANA BELLE (IRE)PROMINENTtypically ~1.3 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · fair break, 0.08s off the field’s best

ARVANA BELLE (IRE) is the only confirmed early type — if it breaks level it should get the front to itself · context only — the shape never selects.

The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER

#1 ESCAPE MAGIC MID

DRAW 5 · OR 55 · Callum Rodriguez / Owen Burrows

MARKET drifting 1.9 → 2.38 · the market rates it a 42% chance

Yard mixed · 1+ / 1−

62.0 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

Top on the figures, 6pts clear of the next, fits the winner profile on recency; the 3rd-strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front.

FormLab Figure

62.0 · ranked #1 here · career best 62

Official mark (OR)

55 · last won off 54

Record at today's distance

2 wins from 3 tries · beats market expectation (2.79)

Days since last run

17

Sectional clock

Last time: a shade below par (-0.2s) · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races midfield-closer

Run style & finish

Midfield · finishing speed 98.92% (one-paced late)

Course scale · class context

steps up 5 places on the course scale (CHEPSTOW 27th → SALISBURY 22nd) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade

Field strength · class context

Meets a field 4lb weaker than last time — today's median OR 51.5 vs 55.5 last run (CHEPSTOW · 8 Jul 26)

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

1stClass 6 · 7f22y · rated 621stClass 6 · 7f · rated 6010thClass 4 · 6f · rated 216thClass 5 · 6f · rated 427thClass 5 · 7f · rated 29

Career sheet · last 18 months · 5 rated runs · spacing is real time

Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Owen Burrows · 323 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 3.6 on the exchange

Signature angle: jockey_named Callum Rodriguez, in fields of <=7

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

In fields of <=7 ✦23/6336.5%1.557/2626.9%1.29

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

Coming back after 15 to 45 days27/13020.8%1.23/319.7%0.54

Too few runners to read reliably

At Salisbury (small sample)1/128.3%0.421/250.0%4.13

In Class 6-7 company (small sample)0/50.0%0.03/475.0%2.32

Above their last winning mark (small sample)3/1421.4%1.462/540.0%1.66

Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 64 at/around today's trip, clears the ~56.0 demand

The rider

Callum Rodriguez · last 14 days: 1/20 · with this yard: A/E 1.58 (n54)

Sectional profile · last 5 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 51.5 graded 42% · n=3322

Speed · vs its fields4th of 6

-0.26 mph

Slower than the fields it has met · 40.8 raw

Break · 0-20mph2nd of 6

+0.09s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed3rd of 6

98.9%

One-paced late

Stride length4th of 6

7.19 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

8 Jul 26Chepstow7f16yGd/Frm61st5455.5True43.5 -0.2895.7—

26 May 26Leicester7fFirm61st4950True40.1 +0.04102.3+0.00

4 Dec 25Chelmsford City6fSlow410th——True39.7 -0.4399.8+0.03

19 Nov 25Kempton Park6fStd56th——Fast early40.0 -0.0895.8+0.00

30 Oct 25Chelmsford City7fStd57th——True38.8 -0.53101.2+0.34

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.24fast2f+0.34par3f+0.30par4f+0.23par5f+0.09par6f+0.05slow7fledslow

Timed runs 2025-10-30 to 2026-07-08. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765

Read through a common rival

vs ARVANA BELLE (IRE) (read through MUSICAL SOLDIER, ZOULETTE) ≈ +0.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.

Proven at this level — a Class 6 winner, racing in Class 6 todayThe top rating in this field (62.0)Improving fast — last run rated 62, 14pts above his recent average of 47.7Only 3 runs at this distanceHistorically underestimated by the marketRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits

LTO comment

“mid-field, effort over 2f out, kept on well final 1f, led late on”

#2 DESERT CHARM HELD-UP

DRAW 3 · OR 52 · Hector Crouch / Mike Murphy

MARKET backed 4 → 2.74 · the market rates it a 36% chance

Yard mixed — leans for · 6+ / 1−

56.0 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

2nd on the figures, 6pts off the top, backed since the morning; tends to burn early and empty out.

FormLab Figure

56.0 · ranked #2 here · career best 57

Official mark (OR)

52 · last won off 48

Record at today's distance

3 wins from 11 tries · beats market expectation (2.78)

Days since last run

28

Sectional clock

Last time: beat the class par by 1.7s · best on the clock in its race
Usually races midfield-closer

Run style & finish

Held up · finishing speed 98.02% (one-paced late)

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

1stClass 6 · 7f132y · rated 561stClass 6 · 1m22y · rated 573rdClass 6 · 7f22y · rated 516thClass 6 · 1m · rated 509thClass 6 · 1m22y · rated 36

Career sheet · last 18 months · 11 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Mike Murphy · 265 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.1 on the exchange

Signature angle: off a steady mark, with their 4yo+s, hidden_effort NORMAL-LTO, as an exposed handicapper, mid-campaign, with a PRO claimer up

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

On turf4/527.7%0.937/3023.3%3.33

Over 7-8f trips1/531.9%0.2810/3330.3%3.26

In Class 6-7 company12/9712.4%1.2910/3925.6%2.02

In fields of <=78/4816.7%1.514/1233.3%2.0

Coming back after 15 to 45 days10/8611.6%1.528/4816.7%1.91

Above their last winning mark8/3522.9%1.718/4119.5%1.84

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

At this time of year (Q3)4/478.5%1.060/50.0%0.0

Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 57 at/around today's trip, clears the ~56.0 demand

The rider

Hector Crouch · last 14 days: 3/27 · at Salisbury: A/E 1.05 (n65) · notable booking — a top rider for a yard he seldom rides for

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 51.5 graded 42% · n=3322

Speed · vs its fields2nd of 6

+0.20 mph

Faster than the fields it has met · 40.1 raw

Break · 0-20mph3rd of 6

+0.18s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed4th of 6

98.0%

One-paced late

Stride length1st of 6

7.44 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

27 Jun 26Lingfield7f135yGd/Frm61st——True41.8 +1.54109.1+0.36

15 Jun 26Chepstow1m14yGood61st4851.5True42.9 +0.1399.0+0.11

7 May 26Southwell7f14yStd63rd4949.5Fast early39.9 +0.0199.3+0.23

10 Oct 25Kempton Park1mStd/Fast66th5148Fast early39.2 -0.1597.8+0.28

1 Sep 25Windsor1m31ySoft69th5361.5True38.0 -0.0995.5+0.11

23 Jul 25Leicester1m53yGood68th5448True38.6 -0.2387.3+0.00

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.36slow2f+0.28very slow3f+0.44very slow4f+0.47slow5f+0.49par6f+0.55fast7f+0.11very fast1mledvery fast

Timed runs 2025-07-23 to 2026-06-27. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765

Read through a common rival

vs OUTRACE (IRE) (read through RIVAL, SCARFO) ≈ +3.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

vs LADY OF THE ISLES (IRE) (read through RACING DEMON, UNKNOWN JOURNEY, THISCOULDBEFUN) ≈ -2.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.

4lb above his last winning mark (52 today vs 48)Proven at this level — a Class 6 winner, racing in Class 6 todayRated #2 in this field (56.0)Proven over the trip (11 tries, beats market expectation at 2.78)Lost roughly 1.6 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultBOOKING UPGRADE — 12m top-5 jockey booked, only 0 ride(s) for this yard in 12m, after non-elite riders on the horse: an intent read (context only,…Historically underestimated by the marketRuns Held-Up — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits

LTO comment

“held up, headway to lead over 1f out, tackled well inside final 1f, driven out”

#3 LADY OF THE ISLES (IRE) MID FORMLAB WATCH

DRAW 6 · OR 52 · Ebrahim Nader / Heather Main

MARKET drifting 17.5 → 19 · the market rates it a 5% chance

Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 5−

55 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

3rd on the figures, 7pts off the top, one of the two strongest finishers here; the 2nd-strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it.

FormLab Figure

55 · ranked #3 here · career best 62

Official mark (OR)

52 · no win on record

Record at today's distance

0 wins from 6 tries

Days since last run

57

Sectional clock

Last time: ran to par for the class · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races midfield

Run style & finish

Midfield · finishing speed 102.07% (holds late)

Course scale · class context

steps up 14 places on the course scale (BRIGHTON 36th → SALISBURY 22nd) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade

Headgear

First-time hood and blinkers

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

8thClass 6 · 1m · rated 537thClass 6 · 1m · rated 547thClass 6 · 1m2f · rated 584thClass 6 · 1m2f · rated 627thClass 5 · 1m1f110y · rated 44

Career sheet · last 18 months · 8 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Heather Main · 311 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.4 on the exchange

Signature angle: as an exposed handicapper

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

In Class 6-7 company10/4721.3%1.350/70.0%0.0

At this time of year (Q3)10/1079.3%1.020/60.0%0.0

Over 7-8f trips16/13611.8%1.11/323.1%0.32

On turf11/1666.6%0.781/313.2%0.32

In fields of <=74/478.5%0.661/1010.0%0.71

Too few runners to read reliably

At Salisbury (small sample)0/50.0%0.00/10.0%0.0

Coming back after 46 to 90 days (small sample)0/210.0%0.00/40.0%0.0

Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 65 at/around today's trip, clears the ~56.0 demand

The rider

Ebrahim Nader · last 14 days: 0/3

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 51.5 graded 42% · n=3322

Speed · vs its fields3rd of 6

-0.20 mph

Slower than the fields it has met · 40.2 raw

Break · 0-20mph5th of 6

+0.25s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed2nd of 6

102.1%

Holds its gallop to the line

Stride length5th of 6

7.17 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

29 May 26Brighton7f216yGd/Frm68th5551Fast early42.2 -0.5197.7+0.51

12 May 26Bath1mGood67th5855True39.1 -0.2098.0+0.28

4 May 26Windsor1m2fGd/Frm67th5862True39.1 -0.43107.5+0.00

14 Oct 25Leicester1m2fGd/Sft64th5858True38.4 -0.5099.3+0.27

22 Sep 25Wolverhampton1m1f104ySlow57th5962True38.0 +0.00105.5+0.15

18 Jul 25Newbury1mGd/Frm54th6067.5True39.5 +0.41104.4+0.31

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.94par2f+1.53slow3f+2.10slow4f+2.26par5f+1.74par6f+1.09par7f+0.86par1m+0.71par

Timed runs 2025-07-18 to 2026-05-29. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765

Read through a common rival

vs DESERT CHARM (read through RACING DEMON, UNKNOWN JOURNEY, THISCOULDBEFUN) ≈ +2.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

vs IT'S LIFE (read through ROMANTIC SPIRIT, MAGIC RUNNER) ≈ -1.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

vs OUTRACE (IRE) (read through WESTON COURT, MY AMBITION, VECCHIO, ANGELICA K) ≈ +0.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.

Rated #3 in this field (55)Lost roughly 2.3 lengths at the start last timeCut 3lb after losing the start last time — but our checklist rejected that excuse: the cut more likely reflects declining formRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits

LTO comment

“slowly away, off pace, ran wide, hung right over 2f out, never dangerous”

#4 IT'S LIFE HELD-UP FORMLAB WATCH

DRAW 1 · OR 51 · Charlie Tucker / Kathy Turner

MARKET 70 · the market rates it a 1% chance

52.0 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

4th on the figures, 10pts off the top, flagged on our watch list; its figure was earned at a different trip.

FormLab Figure

52.0 · ranked #4 here · career best 53 · earned over 13.1/12.2/11.6f — best at today's distance only 32, below the 52 rating

Official mark (OR)

51 · no win on record

Record at today's distance

0 wins from 4 tries

Days since last run

298

Sectional clock

Last time: ran to par for the class
Usually races midfield

Run style & finish

Held up · finishing speed 108.97% (strong late)

Course scale · class context

steps up 13 places on the course scale (BATH 35th → SALISBURY 22nd) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

9thClass 6 · 1m5f22y · rated 527thClass 6 · 1m4f44y · rated 488thClass 6 · 1m3f132y · rated 452ndClass 6 · 1m4f · rated 537thClass 6 · 1m2f44y · rated 42

Career sheet · last 18 months · 7 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Kathy Turner

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 53 is below the ~56.0 the race demands

The rider

Charlie Tucker · last 14 days: 1/7 · at Salisbury: A/E 3.36 (n4) · with this yard: A/E 0 (n1)

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 51.5 graded 42% · n=3322

Speed · vs its fields1st of 6

+0.51 mph

Faster than the fields it has met · 39.0 raw

Break · 0-20mph6th of 6

+0.36s

Slow away in 3 of 6 — habitual, so the market already knows

Finish · closing speed1st of 6

109.0%

Sustains — still going at the line

Stride length6th of 6

7.10 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

30 Sep 25Bath1m5f11yGd/Frm69th5152—38.2 +0.68105.7+0.98

30 Jun 25Wolverhampton1m4f51ySlow67th5248.5True37.7 +0.52106.9+0.39

11 Jun 25Lingfield1m3f133yGood68th4853True40.3 +0.83114.1+0.15

3 Jun 25Lingfield1m4fSlow62nd——True40.1 +0.78112.3+0.24

14 May 25Bath1m2f37yGd/Frm67th5050.5—39.7 +0.89—+0.41—

19 Apr 25Wolverhampton1m1f104yStd/Slow56th5565.5True37.7 -0.63105.8+0.00

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+1.26 2f+1.36 3f+1.04 4f+0.96 5f+0.96 6f+0.82 7f+0.95 1m+0.90 1m 1f+1.55 1m 2f+1.40 1m 3f+1.02 1m 4f+0.76 1m 5f+0.87

Timed runs 2025-04-19 to 2025-09-30 · last timed run 298 days ago — the profile is out of date. · 1 have no finishing speed in either database — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765

Read through a common rival

vs LADY OF THE ISLES (IRE) (read through ROMANTIC SPIRIT, MAGIC RUNNER) ≈ +1.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.

Rating earned over 13.1/12.2/11.6f, not today's distance — best near today's trip is only 32, below the 52 rating (may overstate him here)Only 4 runs at this distanceJockey goes well at this track (3.36x market expectation)Lost roughly 4.4 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultReturns from 298 days offHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Held-Up — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits

LTO comment

“missed break, off pace, ridden over 4f out, effort when short of room on inner final 1f, not recover, little impression”

#5 ARVANA BELLE (IRE) PROMINENT

DRAW 2 · OR 47 · Lewis Edmunds / Rod Millman

MARKET 9.6 · the market rates it a 10% chance

Yard suits today’s conditions · 7+ / 0−

52.0 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

5th on the figures, 10pts off the top, a yard in form; the only measured early speed in the race, at the tempo that wins here — but empties in the final 2f.

FormLab Figure

52.0 · ranked #5 here · career best 54

Official mark (OR)

47 · last won off 45

Record at today's distance

0 wins from 3 tries

Days since last run

11

Sectional clock

Last time: a shade below par (-0.6s) · among the slowest in its race
Usually races midfield and fades · clock read is off a superseded run

Run style & finish

Prominent · finishing speed 97.43% (one-paced late)

Course scale · class context

steps up 8 places on the course scale (LEICESTER 30th → SALISBURY 22nd) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade

Headgear

First-time blinkers

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

3rdClass 6 · 7f · rated 527thClass 6 · 6f · rated 2811thClass 6 · 6f22y · rated 266thClass 6 · 1m · rated 463rdClass 6 · 7f · rated 54

Career sheet · last 18 months · 9 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Rod Millman · 790 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.0 on the exchange

Signature angle: over an unchanged trip

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

At this time of year (Q3)29/24311.9%0.9913/3735.1%2.0

In fields of <=7 ✦30/12524.0%1.3112/5820.7%1.31

Over 7-8f trips ✦24/17713.6%1.1911/8113.6%1.3

In Class 6-7 company ✦19/13813.8%1.0411/7714.3%1.28

Coming back after 8 to 14 days14/13210.6%0.847/4316.3%1.23

On turf ✦52/39513.2%1.1119/12615.1%1.2

Above their last winning mark21/17711.9%0.9711/6118.0%1.15

Too few runners to read reliably

At Salisbury (small sample)7/3917.9%1.625/1533.3%1.89

Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 54 is below the ~56.0 the race demands

The rider

Lewis Edmunds · last 14 days: 4/26 · at Salisbury: A/E 1.4 (n28) · with this yard: A/E 1.36 (n201)

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 51.5 graded 42% · n=3322

Speed · vs its fields5th of 6

-0.31 mph

Slower than the fields it has met · 39.5 raw

Break · 0-20mph1st of 6

+0.08s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed5th of 6

97.4%

One-paced late

Stride length2nd of 6

7.43 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

14 Jul 26Leicester7fGd/Frm63rd4852—40.3 -0.6096.1+0.40—

9 Jun 26Brighton5f215yGood67th5050Slow early41.7 -0.4294.7+0.02

18 May 26Windsor6f12yGood611th5260.5True41.5 -0.2798.2+0.02

27 Apr 26Bath1mGd/Frm66th5357.5True38.8 -0.30101.1+0.00

29 Sep 25Brighton6f210yGood63rd5253True41.2 -0.1295.5+0.00

11 Aug 25Windsor6f12yGd/Frm510th——True40.9 -0.1499.1+0.06

Timed runs 2025-08-11 to 2026-07-14. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765

Read through a common rival

vs ESCAPE MAGIC (read through MUSICAL SOLDIER, ZOULETTE) ≈ -0.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.

Proven at this level — a Class 6 winner, racing in Class 6 todayImproving fast — last run rated 52, 16pts above his recent average of 35.3Only 3 runs at this distanceStable in form this week — 7 wins from 14 runsJockey goes well at this track (1.4x market expectation)Lost roughly 1.8 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultRace-fit — ran 11 days agoHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price

LTO comment

“dwelt, off pace, ridden 3f out, keeping on when no room final 100 yds, stumbled, not recover”

#6 OUTRACE (IRE) MID

DRAW 4 · OR 45 · Seamus Cronin / Richard Hannon

MARKET 18 · the market rates it a 6% chance

Yard mixed — leans for · 4+ / 1−

30 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

6th on the figures, 32pts off the top, fits the winner profile on market position; tends to burn early and empty out.

FormLab Figure

30 · ranked #6 here · career best 77

Official mark (OR)

45 · last won off 69

Record at today's distance

2 wins from 24 tries · beats market expectation (1.07)

Days since last run

203

Sectional clock

Last time: 1.9s slower than par — the result flattered it · among the slowest in its race
Usually races held-up (one-paced)

Run style & finish

Midfield · finishing speed 97.04% (one-paced late)

Headgear

Cheekpieces · yard 14% with first-time gear (A/E 1.36)

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

11thClass 6 · 7f22y · rated 2210thClass 6 · 1m · rated 4610thClass 6 · 1m22y · rated 2210thClass 6 · 1m · rated —11thClass 6 · 1m22y · rated 20

Career sheet · last 18 months · 7 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Richard Hannon · 2111 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.3 on the exchange

Signature angle: jockey_named Pat Dobbs

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

In Class 6-7 company20/17511.4%1.037/2825.0%2.35

Below their last winning mark3/358.6%0.897/3221.9%1.79

Over 7-8f trips65/6799.6%0.8836/22416.1%1.32

At this time of year (Q3)56/6678.4%0.8115/9316.1%1.27

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

Coming back after 180 days+ ✦6/5910.2%0.964/3611.1%0.8

Too few runners to read reliably

At Salisbury (small sample)9/5317.0%0.912/1711.8%0.73

Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 77 at/around today's trip, clears the ~56.0 demand

The rider

Seamus Cronin · last 14 days: 2/5 · at Salisbury: A/E 0 (n1) · with this yard: A/E 1.63 (n12)

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 51.5 graded 42% · n=3322

Speed · vs its fields6th of 6

-0.35 mph

Slower than the fields it has met · 39.5 raw

Break · 0-20mph4th of 6

+0.20s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed6th of 6

97.0%

One-paced late

Stride length3rd of 6

7.33 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

3 Jan 26Southwell7f14yStd611th4853True38.0 -0.8196.4+0.13

25 Nov 25Lingfield1mStd610th5153.5True39.3 -0.71102.1+0.16

31 Oct 25Southwell1m13yStd610th5448Fast early38.9 +0.0195.7+0.24

1 Oct 25Kempton Park1mStd610th5654.5True39.1 -0.3292.1+0.19

5 May 25Bath1mFirm63rd5953.5True41.3 -0.2395.5—

4 Apr 25Bath1mGd/Frm67th6158.5True40.5 -0.02100.3+0.28

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1fledfast2fledslow3fledpar4fledpar5f+0.25par6f+1.06very slow7f+2.17very slow

Timed runs 2025-04-04 to 2026-01-03 · last timed run 203 days ago — the profile is out of date. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · n=765

Read through a common rival

vs DESERT CHARM (read through RIVAL, SCARFO) ≈ -3.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

vs LADY OF THE ISLES (IRE) (read through WESTON COURT, MY AMBITION, VECCHIO, ANGELICA K) ≈ -0.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 54% · n=820

Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.

24lb below his last winning mark (45 today vs 69)Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 6 todayStable in form this week — 6 wins from 31 runsReturns from 203 days offHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price

LTO comment

“soon led, headed over 2f out, no response”